Fantasy Football Today: Chris Towers' post-free agency rankings reset with ongoing QB shuffle at top

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We're just under two weeks away from the start of the NFL Draft, the next and last major event of the NFL offseason with the potential to shake up the Fantasy Football rankings -- and, no, Odell Beckham signing with the Ravens did not count as a "shake up." That makes this a good time to do a little rankings reset.

Unless you're playing in Best Ball leagues or just have a severe lack of patience, there's a good chance you aren't actually going to use these rankings for a few months. I still think it's a worthwhile exercise to go through, both because we're having ongoing discussions throughout the offseason and because it helps establish a baseline for the rest of the way.

Next week in the FFT newsletter, I'll have our first round of Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts available for you, and the rankings and projections process is a big part of how I go about coming up with my picks for those categories. If there are players I'm notably higher on than the consensus, that might be a sleeper or breakout pick; if there's someone I'm much lower on, I'm probably going to call them a bust.

These rankings are far from finalized, of course. They won't be until just before the season, really, but obviously the draft, whatever free agent stragglers, any offseason/preseason injuries will make the final product look much different from what you see below.

But it's good to set a baseline. That's what this is about. If you see anything notable, have any questions, or just want to tell me what you think I got wrong, feel free to email me at Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with your thoughts. We'll be back Friday with another Dynasty Mailbag newsletter from Heath Cummings, and then we'll have Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts from the rest of the FFT team next week.

QB rankings

There's a clear top two at QB, and I've already flip-flopped on their ranking at least once this offseason. I land on Patrick Mahomes ahead of Josh Allen for now mostly because I think Allen probably needs another playmaker in that Bills offense. That might sound like a weird thing to say when Mahomes has a soon-to-be-34-year-old Travis Kelce and a bunch of role players as his pass-catchers. But, of course, that's what we saw Mahomes playing with for the most part last season and he just edged out Allen last season. I think it's a coin flip between the two of them, and if the Bills add a first-round WR, I just might push Allen ahead of him.

After those two, I think Jalen Hurts might be in a tier of his own, and Joe Burrow might be too -- Burrow is an awesome player, but he was two full points per game behind Hurts last season. Justin Fields might be closer to Burrow than Burrow is to Hurts after adding some receiving help this offseason.

After that, things are pretty wide open. If Lamar Jackson returns to Baltimore, he'll be in that Burrow/Fields tier for me, but I do think there's at least a chance he holds out for a long time, potentially causing him to miss some time. After that you have Justin Herbert, who I think will take a step forward; Tua Tagovailoa, who was incredible when healthy last season; Trevor Lawrence, who had an awesome five-game stretch but needs some projecting to even be worth this ranking; and guys like Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, and Geno Smith, who all approach the game a different way, but have similar floors and ceilings for Fantasy. I think that's a pretty wide tier, and I'm not sure any of them are that much better than, say, Jared Goff.

If you're a long-term reader here, then you know what my approach is going to be: I'm taking an elite QB early on. I think Mahomes and Allen are both worth second-round picks, though they'll probably last into the third in most drafts. That's where I'd be willing to take Hurts, and Burrow and Fields are fourth-rounders in my eyes. I'm going to be more aggressive than your typical Fantasy analyst when it comes to taking early QBs, but I think they're worth it -- and I'll have more this offseason about why.

Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Jalen Hurts
Joe Burrow
Justin Fields
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Tua Tagovailoa
Trevor Lawrence
Dak Prescott
Daniel Jones
Deshaun Watson
Geno Smith
Kirk Cousins
Aaron Rodgers
Matthew Stafford
Kyler Murray
Jared Goff
Russell Wilson
Derek Carr
Ryan Tannehill
Jordan Love
Baker Mayfield
Jimmy Garoppolo

RB rankings

The top end of the RB position feels a little shaky to me. I get the sense that not every Fantasy analyst out there agrees with me, which is fine! McCaffrey was excellent with the 49ers, but he ceded important snaps and carries to Elijah Mitchell (when he was healthy), and I'm just a little concerned about his chances of being that consistent 20-PPR point per game guy. The 49ers have a lot of mouths to feed on offense, and I think balancing their offensive options could lead to some frustration for Fantasy purposes.

And yet, he's my No. 1 RB and an easy top-five pick (probably top-two) because Austin Ekeler has his own questions. He should be an excellent fit for Sean Payton's offense ... if he's playing in Sean Payton's offense. Ekeler requested a trade from the Chargers, and while there's been very little said about whether he'll be traded or not, that looms large over his value at this point. Staying with the Chargers would probably be the best thing for Ekeler's value, and I'll view him as 1B to McCaffrey's 1A if that happens.

After that, well, there's a lot of questions. We just watched Jonathan Taylor struggle in a pretty hopeless Colts offense; are we sure Shane Steichen, Jim Bob Cooter and whichever rookie QB they likely bring in (or Gardner Minshew, I guess) is enough to elevate them somewhere north of "hopeless?" Are we so sure that he's worth a first-round pick to find out? I am, but I wouldn't blame anyone for being skeptical.

One interesting thing with my RB rankings this year is that this might be the first time I'm higher on Derrick Henry than the consensus. Or, at least, as high on him as the consensus. When we did our rankings back in January, Henry was somewhere between sixth and ninth for the FFT team. He did fall one spot for me, only because Tony Pollard leapt him; Pollard will fall if the Cowboys take Bijan Robinson in the first round April 27, as I suspect they might.

Henry isn't the galaxy-conquering force he was at his peak, and the Titans seem to be on the verge of a total rebuild, but I expect their offense will still run through him, and the changes they made last season to get him more involved in the passing game were pretty huge for his value. I don't see why they wouldn't continue to get him involved any way they can, given how bereft of talent the rest of the offense looks to be. Maybe Henry, 29, will break down, but I still think he's an easy top-10 RB.

WR rankings

Justin Jefferson is the clear top guy at this position, but I think Cooper Kupp is just as clearly the No. 2 option. Even in a Rams offense that was downright dysfunctional at times last season, Kupp was still on a 153-catch, 1,728-yard, 13-touchdown pace in his eight healthy games while adding 52 rushing yards and a touchdown in those eight games. If there's a gap between him and Jefferson, it only exists because of where they are on the aging curve.

Where this position gets really interesting is when you get toward the low-end WR1 range. Davante Adams had another huge year despite inconsistent QB play, but I feel inclined to nudge him down just a bit because I'm just not sure how the fit with Jimmy Garoppolo will be. On the other hand, we just had a season where Adams was downgraded due to concerns about a new QB, and he was a 20-point-per-game scorer. The guy steps on the field and demands 30% of the targets no matter who the QB is.

Garrett Wilson soars into the top 10 under the assumption that Aaron Rodgers will be the Jets QB in 2023. Even if Rodgers isn't the same guy he was at his peak, he figures to be a monumental upgrade over what the Jets had at QB last season. And, when Wilson was catching passes from anyone but Zach Wilson, he looked like an absolute superstar -- his 17-game pace in the eight games Zach Wilson missed would have seen him put up 104 catches, 1,394 yards, and eight touchdowns. And that was with Mike White and Joe Flacco and Chris Streveler, not, you know, Aaron Rodgers. This is an aggressive ranking for Wilson that might end up being conservative.

After that, I think things are wide open. Tee Higgins is a WR1 who plays with potentially the WR1, and has had enough injury hiccups to knock him down just a bit. DeAndre Hopkins is going to be 31 and we have no idea who he'll be his quarterback, but he still looked like an elite player last season. Calvin Ridley is coming back from a suspension that cost him a year, Keenan Allen struggled to stay healthy last season, Deebo Samuel's receiving production cratered last season, D.J. Moore is in a low-volume offense with an erratic passer ... yeah, there are some question marks here. My preference would be to land two of my top 10 if possible, though with my early-round QB hopes, that might be tough. Maybe this is a perfect year for zero-RB.

TE rankings

You can justify taking Travis Kelce as high as No. 1 overall. I wouldn't do it, but it's not particularly hard to make the case for it. In 2022, he outscored the No. 2 tight end in points per game by 5.1 points; that's bigger than the gap between WR1 and WR8 or the gap between RB1 and RB5. Kelce is going to 34 this October, but he's shown basically no signs of slowing down; 2022 was actually his second-highest receiving total ever and then he went out and had 27 catches for 257 yards and four touchdowns in three playoff games. He's the single biggest advantage you can get in Fantasy.

After that, we're hoping for a Mark Andrews bounceback and for T.J. Hockenson to retain his high-volume role in the Vikings offense. I'm expecting both, but while Kelce is a clear first-round pick in my eyes, Andrews is more like a second, and Hockenson a third-rounder. They're good players, who should give you a big edge on your competition, but Hockenson especially doesn't have the upside to be, say, a 16-PPG scorer.

Kyle Pitts certainly does. Whether he'll get there is an open question after he had such a miserable second season, but I'm going to chase upside at tight end rather than worrying about floor. Pitts still won't even be 23 until October, and he still demanded a significant target share despite primarily working down the field. I don't think the addition of Jonnu Smith is going to hurt Pitts, who lines up more often out wide than in-line, and I think that offense is likely to be more pass-heavy than it was a year ago. If Desmond Ridder takes any kind of step toward competence, the sky remains the limit for Pitts.

After that, I think you've got three other tight ends I'll feel good about starting every week, and maybe four more who I'll feel alright about, but I probably won't actively chase anyone outside of my top six here. I'm looking for difference makers at tight end, or I'm not investing in the position inside of the first 10 rounds. That's my policy.