Joe Burrow is going to miss "several weeks" with a strained calf, and that isn't even the biggest news to come out of this weekend from around the NFL. I was originally planning on doing a "One thing to know from every team's first week of training camp" newsletter today, and then all hell broke loose Sunday, to the point where Burrow's injury almost doesn't even feel like news.
But it obviously is, so we'll get to the latest about Jonathan Taylor and the Seahawks running backs shortly. You'll want to keep reading for that, but first, some quick thoughts on Burrow's injury.
Burrow is the most important member of one of the most important offenses in the league for Fantasy, with only the Jaguars matching them with four players drafted inside of the first 55 taken in NFC drafts over the past week. We do not want to see Trevor Siemian or Jake Browning taking significant snaps for this offense.
The good news is, we hopefully won't have to, at least not in the games we care about. We're about six weeks away from Week 1, and NFL Network reported Friday that "it doesn't sound as if Week 1 is in jeopardy." Obviously, that's not a guarantee, and any kind of setback could change that anyway, but right now, it doesn't look like there's too much to panic about.
In 19 NFC drafts this weekend, Ja'Marr Chase was still the No. 2 player overall. Tee Higgins was an early third rounder, Burrow was typically drafted around the 3-4 turn, and Joe Mixon's ADP sat right at 50; none of those are dramatically different than they'd been prior to the injury. Nobody is panicking. That's good, though as Dave Richard said Saturday, buy the dip if you can.
If you want to ding everyone just a bit with the Burrow injury, that's reasonable, but I haven't made any moves in my rankings just yet. If, in two weeks, we get word that Burrow isn't healing as hoped and Week 1 is at risk, I'll change my tune. But we're far enough away from Week 1 to be afforded some patience.
That's not to say we don't need to react to anything that's going on right now. There's the Taylor situation, which blew up this weekend and doesn't seem to be close to a resolution, plus injuries to both of the top names in the Seahawks backfield. So, that's what we're focusing on for the rest of today's newsletter. Here's what you need to know:
What's Up With Jonathan Taylor and Indy?
The Jonathan Taylor-Colts standoff officially got ugly this weekend. Taylor, who has been looking for a new contract as he enters the final season of his rookie deal, met with team owner Jim Irsay Saturday afternoon to discuss the situation … and I think it's safe to say that meeting did not go well. Taylor requested a trade during the meeting, with Irsay saying afterward (among, well, other things), "We will not trade Jonathan Taylor. That is a certainty. Not now or not in October."
Taylor opened camp on the PUP list after offseason ankle surgery, but we learned Sunday that Colts are considering putting Taylor on the Non-Football Injury list after he reportedly complained of back pain during his entrance physical – a report Taylor himself denied on Twitter Sunday evening. That move would allow the Colts to withhold any amount of Taylor's salary if he misses time this season as a result of that injury. It's an escalation, seemingly aimed at calling Taylor's bluff and pressuring him to get back on the field during camp.
The whole thing is a mess, and at this point, it's hard to see how they come to an amicable agreement to keep Taylor in Indy this season. That doesn't mean it's impossible, especially since Taylor doesn't really have much leverage to force a trade or get a new contract, but I just can't see a path forward right now.
Now, that doesn't mean it would be a disaster if Taylor stayed with the Colts. I had him as my No. 3 running back prior to this because I believe he's an elite rusher who will benefit from Anthony Richardson's mobility and is one of the best bets to rush for 1,500-plus rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns. I'm moving him down due to the uncertainty of the situation here, but if he ends up taking part in camp, stays healthy, and opens the season with the Colts, I'll still probably view him as a top-12 pick.
Right now, he's more like a second-rounder, though, and some folks might let him fall to the third. I'd still take him ahead of Joe Mixon, my RB10, but that's probably it for now – I'll take Nick Chubb in our drafts this week, at least.
But what if he gets traded? Part of the problem with that question is it gets to the larger questions that have been plaguing the RB position this offseason – who wants to give up real assets and then likely extend a running back in this market? Taylor might be the best one in the league, but the Colts know that too and aren't likely to give him up for any kind of discount. This means we're probably talking about teams with a real contention window over the next few years who could reasonably justify giving up premium assets for him – it wouldn't really make much sense for the Buccaneers to trade for Taylor when they're already rebuilding, would it?
Are there any landing spots out there that would be a legitimate improvement on Taylor's Fantasy value for 2023? Here are three that could help Taylor at least maintain his value if the Colts decide to acquiesce to his demand:
Bills
If you've been reading this newsletter for long enough, you know I've been pretty skeptical of people who want the Bills to go after a high-end running back. But in Taylor's case, I think it's actually a great fit. I'd project him for 75% of the RB touches, and because he doesn't rely on catching passes at a high volume for much of his Fantasy value, he wouldn't be especially harmed by Josh Allen's scrambling ability. There would be some complications when it comes to the goal-line roles, but Taylor's home-run hitting ability as a runner would help make up for that somewhat, especially next to a mobile QB like Allen who will help open up running lanes for him. Taylor would remain in the Josh Jacobs/Saquon Barkley/Bijan Robinson tier of my rankings, albeit probably toward the bottom.
Chiefs
The Chiefs ranked fifth in Fantasy points by running backs last season, though that might not seem super relevant to Taylor, because so much of that production came by way of Jerick McKinnon and his 56 catches and nine receiving touchdowns. But the Chiefs have been flexible and willing to change their game plan depending on the personnel around Patrick Mahomes, and I have to imagine they'd be willing to run the ball quite a bit more if they had a player like Taylor. That probably wouldn't lead to 300-plus carries, but I'd bet on 250-plus, and probably a bigger role in the passing game than we're used to seeing from Taylor. 50-plus catches? I think it would at least be possible, and they'd surely find creative ways to use him near the goal line. As in Buffalo, I think Taylor would slot in pretty easily at the bottom of that second tier at the position.
Dolphins
I started out skeptical about this pick, but it was pretty easy to talk myself into it. The Dolphins were about middle of the pack for RB production last season, but often split touches; that certainly wouldn't be the case if they added Taylor. This is another situation where they probably wouldn't throw to Taylor much – the Dolphins top three running backs combined for 76 targets last season, a pretty low number – but he'd have little competition for carries, and would likely be featured heavily near the goal-line. The Dolphins are an organization that likes to make a big splash, and they haven't been this close to contending since Dan Marino was in his prime. The Dolphins might be the contender I could most easily see being willing to drop a second or even first-round pick for Taylor – they moved a first-rounder for Bradley Chubb last season, remember – though fitting an extension into their future cap might be tougher. But this is a team that prioritizes stars, and Taylor would make them nearly impossible to defend. Given their known interest in Dalvin Cook – and rumored interest in trading for Saquon Barkley – they might be the likeliest outcome if the Colts decide to make a deal. And it might end up being an ideal landing spot.
Seahawks RB injuries
One other dark horse contender? How about the Seahawks, who clearly value the running back position, having spent second-round picks in consecutive seasons on Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. That would seemingly make them a poor fit for Taylor, except that both Walker and Charbonnet are dealing with injuries that seem likely to cost them at least some time during training camp.
Now, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll didn't exactly sound panicked about the injuries when discussing them with reporters Sunday. When asked if Walker is being viewed as week to week due to a groin injury, Carroll agreed, and added, "He doesn't feel bad. It's not a terrible injury or anything like that."
With regards to Charbonnet's shoulder injury, Carroll was even more vague: "We'll take some time to figure it out. It just kind of crept up on him, really," Carroll said. "He didn't get hit or anything like that. Just all the sudden, he started to feel something, so we're just checking him out and being really cautious right now."
None of that sounds too serious, but here's the thing you need to know about Pete Carroll, if you don't already: Nothing ever sounds too serious when Carroll talks about it. On Aug. 11 of last year, Carroll told reporters Walker was "feeling a little bit of groin tightness." Six days later, Walker still wasn't practicing, and Carroll said, "Ken's got a little hernia thing that he's working on and we've got to get through that." The next day, Walker had surgery.
Which is to say, it's best not to assume anything about Walker or Charbonnet's availability for the season at this point – we could find out they are coming back to practice tomorrow or that they are out for the season and neither outcome would surprise me. Carroll consistently gives non-answers to the media about player injuries; that's just who he is.
Which means, if you're drafting in the next few days, you kind of have to steer clear of this backfield. That's not literally true, but given that all we know is that Walker is dealing with an injury to the same part of the body he had surgery on last season and Charbonnet is out "indefinitely", you've gotta downgrade them, for sure.
Walker's ADP is 50.4 in NFC drafts over the past week, and I'd probably drop him about a round; behind Miles Sanders (62.0) sounds about right, though I would have drafted them that way even before this injury. It's less necessary to drop Charbonnet, who is already going outside of the top 100, but I'd certainly take Rashaad Penny and Samaje Perine ahead of him, two of the backs currently behind him.
You should also add DeeJay Dallas and Kenny McIntosh to your draft boards, at least for now. Neither should go anywhere close to the top 100, but both are worthwhile dart throws – McIntosh more than Dallas, who has one game with more than 10 carries over three NFL seasons. McIntosh is a seventh-round pick who rushed for 829 yards as a senior at Georgia, but was a major factor in the passing game, catching 43 passes for 505 yards. He's likely viewed as the medium-term Dallas replacement, but if you're going to bet on anyone in this backfield if Walker and Charbonnet miss games that matter, I'd go with the unknown quantity – we know who Dallas is, and it doesn't seem like the Seahawks view him as a three-down player.
To be clear, there's no need to panic right now. If you're drafting this week, you're inviting the inherent uncertainty of drafting this early, and a lot can go wrong when you do that. Knock Walker and Charbonnet down, but don't take them off your draft boards entirely; if this ends up being as minor as Carroll makes it sound, you could end up with a couple of steals.
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