This year's rookie class didn't quite reach the heights of the historic 2014 class, but it was the best wide receiver class since then for sure. While that 2014 class saw three 1,000-yard seasons and a top 10 that combined for 8,520 yards, this year's class only had one 1,000-yarder, with a top 10 that combined for 7,427 yards. However, three receivers in 2019 had more than 900 yards as a rookie, after none managed it in 2018.
By Week 17, we had at least seven rookie wide receivers you could have conceivably been starting in a winning lineup, including A.J. Brown, who helped win countless leagues with a dominant second half. He wasn't quite on Odell Beckham's level in terms of rookie production, but Brown put together a level of efficiency that is almost unheard of from a veteran, let alone a rookie.
Wide receiver had a tough year overall in 2019, but the rookies were a real bright spot. And they could help replenish a position that could certainly use it. Coming off their first season, here's where the wide receivers rank, for 2020 and beyond.
Brown was super productive in college and crushed the combine, but 50 players still went ahead of him in last year's draft. Whoops. Brown was instantly productive, going over 100 receiving yards in his first game and putting up another 90-plus yard showing in Week 4, but it still took time for the Titans to give him a full-time role — he didn't top a 65% snap share until Week 9. From that point on he was one of the top players in Fantasy, playing at least 69% of the snaps in each game and topping 84% in six of eight games, going for 30 catches, 703 yards and five touchdowns, while adding 62 rushing yards and another score. That's a 60-catch, 1,400-yard, 10-touchdown pace, and he did it with just a 100-target pace. Brown put together one of the most efficient and productive rookie seasons we've ever seen, and there really is no question about who the No. 1 receiver from this class should be, thanks to his incredible combination of after-catch ability and downfield skills — he was fifth in the NFL in yards after catch among wide receivers, while also sporting a robust 13.2 yard average depth of target. The only question, really, is whether he's the No. 1 Fantasy prospect from his class at any position. You can make a pretty good case, though I hope the Titans will understand what they have here and start to tilt away from being quite so run-heavy in 2020 and beyond.
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Most other years, the just-turned-22-year-old physical specimen coming off a top-30 finish would be the No. 1 prospect, so this is hardly an indictment of any kind on Metcalf. He answered most of the questions about how his physical skills would translate to the NFL, and the only knock against him might be that I'm not quite sure when he'll be the No. 1 WR on his own team. As good as Metcalf was as a rookie, Tyler Lockett was even better, and he's only 27 himself. There's a gap between Brown and Metcalf, but that's more about Brown than anything Metcalf did wrong.
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At Ohio State, McLaurin looked like an extremely productive role player; in Washington, he looked like a star. Despite receiving arguably the worst QB play in the league, McLaurin surely would have had a 1,000-yard season if not for missing two games, and he averaged 9.9 yards per target on a team that averaged just 6.7 yards per pass attempt overall. McLaurin slides in behind Metcalf largely due to the latter's more impressive pedigree and the benefit of playing with Russell Wilson. If Dwayne Haskins can emerge as even an average quarterback, McLaurin's future looks incredibly bright, as he showed in going for 12 catches, 216 yards, and a touchdown in Haskins' final two (and best) games.
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Samuel vs. N'Keal Harry, next up on the list, is a really interesting comparison. Samuel blew him away in rookie production, emerging as arguably the 49ers No. 2 receiver beside George Kittle even after the trade for Emmanuel Sanders. But Harry was the more productive player in college and is nearly two years younger. Which would you bet on? I think it's pretty close to a coin flip, and I've gone back and forth on how to rank them. Ultimately, I sided with Samuel, because of the rookie year production.. One thing to keep in mind with Samuel that might not show up in a lot of analysis of his rookie season: 159 rushing yards and three touchdowns. That makes his rookie season look a lot like D.J. Moore's, who obviously blew up in Year 2. Ultimately, I couldn't pass on that.
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One of the questions we have to answer at this point with an exercise like this is how to weight pre-draft expectations with tangible results. Harry was pretty bulletproof as a prospect, with a productive college career at a young age and an impressive physical profile, but was a total bust as a rookie. Part of that was due to an injury, as Harry didn't even play until Week 11 due to a hamstring injury. However, he stepped into a pretty sizable role in a Patriots offense desperate for playmakers and just couldn't really do much, averaging a dismal 4.4 yards per attempt. We'll try to split the difference between the prospect profile and Harry's disappointing rookie season here, ranking him fifth at the position, with the acknowledgement that the upside for something a lot more than that exists. However, this was a very strong rookie class, so this is still a strong bet on Harry as a prospect.
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Slayton looks like one of the biggest steals of the 2019 draft right now, and it wouldn't be as surprise to see him emerge as the No. 1 receiver for the Giants as soon as 2020. Even playing with Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard for most of the season, Slayton put together a strong rookie campaign, averaging 8.8 yards per target and a solid 57.1% catch rate on a high 14.1 yard average depth of target. Slayton is the biggest riser of this rookie class at wide receiver and might be a top 45 Dynasty wide receiver heading into Year 2.
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It took a little while to get going, but Renfrow was highly productive in the second half of the season despite missing three games with a fractured rib. From Week 8 on, Renfrow had 490 yards and four touchdowns on 35 catches, good for an 80-catch, 1,100-yard pace over 16 games. Pace stats are to be taken with a grain of salt, obviously, and Renfrow isn't the kind of receiver who can maintain elite yards per target efficiency given his typically low average depth of target, but it was nice to see him be so productive after the catch against NFL defenders. The Raiders probably don't have their future No. 1 WR on the roster — they hoped Antonio Brown would be that — but Renfrow looks like a good fit if Derek Carr remains the long-term answer at quarterback, even if there isn't necessarily a ton of upside here.
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Playing in the Ravens offense, there is always going to be potential for Brown to hit on big plays, but that same offense also limited his looks, as the Ravens threw the ball less often to their wide receivers than any team in the league. The question is, how much will that change as Brown and Miles Boykin develop? Boykin still has plenty of Dynasty appeal as well, but unless the Ravens dramatically re-orient their offense, there is barely enough room for one of them to stand out. Brown ranks this high as a bet on his talent as well as that of Lamar Jackson, but he's less of a sure thing than the guys ahead of him.
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Probably because of the presence of JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington, Johnson was something of an afterthought coming into the season, but he ended up being surprisingly productive despite a less than ideal situation in Pittsburgh. The biggest issues for Johnson in the long run are that he's still probably the third-most talented receiver in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers have significant questions at quarterback even if Ben Roethlisberger can come back from his elbow injury in 2020 as expected.
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We'll have to see how Williams recovers from his torn ACL, because there was a stretch there where he looked like a legitimate Fantasy option before the injury. Williams, who dominated preseason after going undrafted from Colorado State due to off-field issues, averaged 53.5 yards per game and made plenty of acrobatic catches despite playing three of his eight games with Josh Rosen. With the Dolphins likely to acquire their quarterback of the future this offseason, Williams has a chance to grow alongside him as the No. 2 to DeVante Parker.
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Hardman was a threat to score every time he touched the ball, as expected. Now the question is whether he can be a big enough part of this offense to be a week-in, week-out threat with Tyreek Hill around. Hardman played plenty when Hill was sidelined by a shoulder injury early in the season, but was more of a big player when Hill was healthy. You might say Hill and Hardman are redundant as undersized receivers with blazing speed, but Andy Reid is smart enough to know you can never have too much speed on the field. If Hardman can push his way into the lineup more often — DeMarcus Robinson's status as a free agent could help in this regard — there's big breakout potential here.
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Based on the opportunity that presented itself, Arcega-Whiteside's rookie season has to rank among the most disappointing of anyone in 2019. With Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor sidelined for long stretches of the second half, Arcega-Whiteside played at least 70% of the snaps in four of his final five games, which makes his 12 targets and 126 yards in that stretch even more disappointing. There is still plenty of opportunity in Philadelphia with Jeffery coming off a season-ending foot injury that could stretch into 2020, but Arcega-Whiteside needs to become a more complete receiver to take advantage. One thing working in his favor: He led the Eagles in receptions thrown 20 yards or more down the field. With Carson Wentz's ability to extend plays, that could be a very valuable role.
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The Cardinals have drafted plenty of wide receivers over the past few years, so there's a big opportunity for someone to grow with Kyler Murray. Isabella's elite speed didn't show up often, but he did score on an 88-yard touchdown, so we saw glimpses of it. The Cardinals spread their targets out quite a bit — Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald were the only players with more than 47 targets — so there's plenty of room for Isabella to step up. If this offense takes a step forward next season, figure he'll be a part of it.
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Campbell's Dynasty stock took a hit with Andrew Luck's retirement, and a rookie season averaging just 5.3 yards per target in a limited role is a bad start to post-Luck life. However, injuries played a part in his limited role, and when he was healthy, Campbell actually played a pretty healthy snap share. With T.Y. Hilton in his 30s and nobody else on the roster with his pedigree, Campbell still has a chance to break out in Year 2, but he'll need better quarterback play from Jacoby Brissett or someone else.
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Sims seems like he plays faster than his 40 time at times, but the issue with his rookie season was it didn't show up consistently enough. He came on late in the season as Haskins started to find himself, but still averaged better than 11.0 yards per reception just once in a game with more than two catches. He was more productive than fellow rookie Kelvin Harmon, but his destiny is probably as more of a Cole Beasley type. There's value in that, but he's not someone to get excited about for Dynasty, especially with Harmon around to potentially usurp him as the No. 2 receiver behind McLaurin.
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Butler was a popular prospect this time last year, with ideal size and athleticism and a huge season under his belt in college, but the Cardinals stashed him on IR this season after he never seemed able to crack the rotation at wide receiver even in camp. He's still out here as a Dynasty buy-low, but he's got a lot of work to do to improve his stock.
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