Fantasy Football is all about winning your draft and to win your draft, you'll need to follow a set of rankings you can feel confident in. The best way to rank players is by tiers. These tiers will hopefully come in handy on draft day. This doesn't need much of a preamble, so let's jump right in.
Tier 1 -- Cheat Codes
(These tiered rankings are representative of how I'm drafting in half-PPR formats. My updated non-PPR and full-PPR rankings will be live on SportsLine on Wednesday.)
Players in bold are ones that I have ranked significantly ahead of ADP. I highly recommend being sensitive to the site that is hosting your draft. Each draft is different. You might be able to get a player who I rank in my top-20 in Round 3 or 4 on some sites. The more aware of where discrepancies in my rankings and ADP exist, the more value you will be likely to scoop up throughout your draft.
1. Christian McCaffrey
2. CeeDee Lamb
3. Tyreek Hill
Tier 2 -- Potential Cheat Codes
4. Breece Hall
5. Bijan Robinson
Scott Barrett is a smart dude! He believes that the potential top-end outcome for the few remaining bellcow running backs is so high that those three should be the first players selected in Fantasy. That thinking makes some sense to me, which is why I place Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson in a tier of their own above Ja'Marr Chase and a bunch of other elite receivers. In my opinion, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb are cheat codes in their own right -- they don't project for quite the gargantuan point total that CMC put up last year, but they do both project for more points than I've ever projected a WR for.
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Tier 3 -- Dawgs
You can't go wrong in this tier. A lot of people complain about picking from the back of the round, which I get from the perspective of missing out on the cheat codes at the top of the draft. That's always the case, though. Picking in the back half sucks. Your league really should have instituted a third-round reversal by this point to at least attempt to mitigate the disadvantage.
Anyway, enough complaining! The players in this tier are absolute dawgs. Any one of them could finish as the top scoring Fantasy WR in 2024.
6. Ja'Marr Chase
7. A.J. Brown
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown
9. Justin Jefferson
10. Deebo Samuel
11. Garrett Wilson
12. Puka Nacua
13. Nico Collins
Tier 4 -- Scared money don't make money
You've gotta make a pick. I know that these don't feel like Round 2 picks. What are you gonna do? Draft Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor because that feels "safer?" Henry is a 30-year old running back, and the DraftSharks Injury Predictor has him as the "safest" pick of those three.
None of the picks in this range are going to feel good. That's the nature of the beast. There's a lot of ambiguity in 2024 as young players step into larger roles. That presents us with a lot of upside! Let's focus on the potential for how cool it could be if these players thrive in 2024 rather than suffering in advance anticipating these Round 2 picks coming back to bite us.
14. Marvin Harrison Jr.
15. Jaylen Waddle
16. Drake London
17. Kyren Williams
18. Jahmyr Gibbs
19. De'Von Achane
Check out this historical analysis done by the great Ryan Heath. Don't be afraid to bet on De'Von Achane. If it does not pay off, everything will be alright. We will get through this together.
Tier 5 -- I feel solid about all of these picks
Once you hit Round 3, it's time to consider grabbing an elite tight end. "What are the trends that are gonna define 2024 that we don't know yet?" My former CBS colleague Ben Gretch (subscribe to his substack and learn to make smarter Fantasy football decisions!) posed that question in relation to the tight end position. He believes that the 2024 Fantasy TE group is stronger and deeper at the top than ever before, and I agree. The profiles of Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, and George Kittle are all extremely strong. I try to always land one of that bunch. That is not always realistic, as sometimes I find elite players like Nico Collins or Jaylen Waddle somehow available in Round 3. That's a good problem to have, though!
Here's how I'd sort out the elite tight ends and the rest of Tier 5:
20. Brandon Aiyuk
21. Jonathan Taylor
22. Derrick Henry
23. Isiah Pacheco
24. Chris Olave
25. Malik Nabers
26. Trey McBride
27. Sam LaPorta
28. Davante Adams
29. DeVonta Smith
30. DJ Moore
31. Travis Kelce
32. Mark Andrews
Tier 6 -- Quarterbacks are on the menu!
33. Josh Jacobs
34. DK Metcalf
35. Cooper Kupp
36. Josh Allen
37. Mike Evans
38. Lamar Jackson
39. Jalen Hurts
40. Patrick Mahomes
41. Kyle Pitts
42. Saquon Barkley
43. Travis Etienne
44. Anthony Richardson
45. George Kittle
46. Dalton Kincaid
Rachaad White is poised to handle a massive workload and was the Fantasy RB4 in PPR formats in 2023, but I can't help but fall in love with Tampa Bay's Round 4 rookie RB Bucky Irving.
Tier 7
47. Rachaad White
48. James Cook
49. Kenneth Walker
50. Rashee Rice
51. Diontae Johnson
52. Michael Pittman
53. Christian Kirk
54. Amari Cooper
55. Tee Higgins
56. Tank Dell
57. Stefon Diggs
Tier 8
58. David Montgomery
59. Jonathan Brooks
60. Calvin Ridley
61. C.J. Stroud
62. Zay Flowers
63. Chris Godwin
64. Xavier Worthy
65. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
66. Keenan Allen
67. Christian Watson
68. Brian Thomas Jr.
69. Rome Odunze
70. George Pickens
If Pickens does not end up as Brandon Aiyuk's teammate, then he could put up a monster season in Year 3. I'm pretty worried about Pittsburgh's offense, though. All of the Steelers (other than Najee Harris. This is feeling like another miserable Arthur Smith season. Please feel better soon, Jaylen Warren!) have been moving down my rankings. Pittsburgh played Russell Wilson and Justin Fields for the entire second preseason game and only put three points on the board!
If Aiyuk is traded to Pittsburgh, Pickens would project as a barely-usable Fantasy option. If I knew that Aiyuk was going to be a Steeler, I'd rank Pickens as a borderline top-100 pick. He'd be in the same range as DeAndre Hopkins and Ladd McConkey.
I recently moved two players into Tier 8 that had previously sat in the same range as McConkey. Brian Thomas Jr. has been the most impressive receiver that I have watched this preseason. Odunze's ascent feels inevitable and Caleb Williams looks locked and loaded to deliver a huge statistical season. Patience will likely be required with both of these rookie receivers, and neither may ever reach the top to their range of outcomes. Of course there is risk involved with betting on rookie receivers. The top to their range of outcomes is so exciting, though!
Hitting on these types of bets give you a real chance to put together a team that can win a Fantasy championship. And hey, if you're a believer in McConkey maybe you throw him in this tier. The same logic could apply. If you're a Chase Brown believer, this is the range to make sure that you get a chance to make that upside bet. There are a bunch of players that get drafted in the fifth and sixth rounds of Fantasy drafts that I have little interest in, so I often end up looking at a draft board where my top-ranked player (usually Jonathan Brooks) is way down the actual draft board. The aggressiveness that I choose to approach this part of the draft with usually depends on how I feel about the draft room. If it feels like a room where I can afford to let a player slip another round to try to gain the most possible value with each pick, and if the slipping player does not solve an immediate problem for my roster, then I let them slip. If I already have drafted Achane, I'm probably letting Brooks slip here.
Tier 9
71. Joe Mixon
72. Terry McLaurin
73. James Conner
74. Najee Harris
75. Alvin Kamara
76. Raheem Mostert
77. Jayden Daniels
78. Rhamondre Stevenson
79. Javonte Williams
80. Aaron Jones
81. Devin Singletary
82. D'Andre Swift
83. Dak Prescott
84. Joe Burrow
85. Caleb Williams
86. Tyjae Spears
87. Tony Pollard
88. Jaylen Warren
89. Jake Ferguson
90. Jayden Reed
91. Jordan Love
92. Kyler Murray
93. Joshua Palmer
Last Wednesday's newsletter focused on sleepers. One of the categories that I placed players into was sleepers with "injury-contingent upside." You'll find some of those players sprinkled throughout the upcoming tiers.
The top tier that I created for injury-contingent sleepers was labeled the "Amethyst Tier." I like making tiers.
Tier 10
94. Zamir White
95. Courtland Sutton
96. Ladd McConkey
97. Blake Corum
98. DeAndre Hopkins
99. Curtis Samuel
100. Evan Engram
101. Brock Bowers
102. Zack Moss
103. Chase Brown
104. Gus Edwards
105. J.K. Dobbins
106. Trey Benson
107. Jaylen Wright
108. David Njoku
Tier 11
109. Keon Coleman (wow this is higher than consensus? If you believe in Coleman's talent, you absolutely should be drafting him. I am skeptical, and I still have him above consensus because the preseason role has been so promising.)
110. Rashid Shaheed
111. Hollywood Brown
112. Pat Freiermuth
113. Tyler Lockett
114. Darnell Mooney
115. Josh Downs
116. Jordan Addison
117. Austin Ekeler
118. Brian Robinson
119. Ezekiel Elliott
120. Chuba Hubbard
121. Zach Charbonnet
122. Bucky Irving
123. Ray Davis
124. Braelon Allen
125. Tyler Allgeier
126. Tyrone Tracy
127. Antonio Gibson
128. Dontayvion Wicks
129. Brock Purdy
130. Jameson Williams
131. Brandin Cooks
Lots of bold names here, huh? This tier mostly reflects a difference in philosophy between how I'm drafting and how the public seems to. I want to get my hands on these premium handcuff lottery tickets. I'm never drafting the quarterbacks and tight ends in this range. Cole Kmet? Yuck! (He's actually looked really good this preseason, but the Bears seem to be set on giving Gerald Everett a large role and there's only one football to be spread among all of the Chicago pass-catching options.)
If Greg Dortch was six-foot-three, I'd draft him in Round 2. He and Marvin Harrison Jr. would be the coolest WR duo in the league. If I was six-foot-three I would be in the NBA. Probably not, actually, but would you believe that I once dunked a basketball on a 10-foot rim at the height of five-foot-nine? I'm much shorter than Heath Cummings, but I'm still two inches taller than Greg Dortch!
Tier 12
132. Khalil Shakir
133. Xavier Legette
134. Romeo Doubs
135. Jerry Jeudy
136. DeMario Douglas
137. Jalen McMillan
138. Jahan Dotson
139. Dallas Goedert
140. Luke Musgrave
141. Demarcus Robinson (I'm wondering if Robinson is even worth drafting lately. I wonder if Jordan Whittington might cut into his snap share.)
142. Greg Dortch
143. Ja'Lynn Polk
144. Adonai Mitchell
145. Jermaine Burton
146. Ricky Pearsall
147. Jerome Ford
148. Nick Chubb
149. Rico Dowdle
150. Khalil Herbert
151. Kimani Vidal
152. MarShawn Lloyd (this makes me so sad. I've had him ranked as a borderline top-100 pick at times this summer. Hopefully his hammy heals up and we see him healthy and in action as a rookie)
153. Ty Chandler
154. Ben Sinnott
155. Justin Herbert
156. Tua Tagovailoa
157. Jared Goff
158. Kirk Cousins
159. T.J. Hockenson
160. Dalton Schultz
161. Noah Fant
162. Tyler Conklin
163. Taysom Hill
164. D'Onta Foreman
165. Justice Hill
166. Will Shipley
167. Audric Estime
168. Trevor Lawrence
169. Geno Smith
170. Drake Maye
171. Daniel Jones
172. Justin Fields
173. Hunter Henry
174. Geno Smith
175. Dylan Laube
176. Matthew Stafford
177. Aaron Rodgers
178. Sam Darnold
179. Bo Nix
180. Jaleel McLaughlin
181. Baker Mayfield
182. Will Levis
183. Colby Parkinson
184. Bryce Young
Tier 14 -- Why are we still drafting?
185. Cole Kmet
186. Michael Mayer
187. Juwan Johnson
188. Greg Dulcich
189. Isaiah Likely
190. Adam Thielen
191. Jakobi Meyers
192. Mike Williams
193. Rashod Bateman
194. Michael Wilson
195. Jalen Tolbert
196. Gabe Davis
197. Derek Carr
198. Russell Wilson
199. Michael Penix Jr.
200. Chigoziem Okonkwo
201. Zach Ertz (ooh sleeper alert! Jk, I just found it funny that I was making a soon-to-be 34 year-old Zach Ertz's name bold)
202. Tyler Boyd
203. K.J. Osborn
204. Andrei Iosivas
205. Malachi Corley
206. Luke McCaffrey
207. Jordan Whittington
208. Jacob Cowing
209. Malik Washington
210. Johnny Wilson
211. Brenden Rice
212. Cade Otton
213. Jonnu Smith
214. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
215. Dameon Pierce
216. Tank Bigbsy
217. Darius Slayton
218. Jalin Hyatt
219. Kendrick Bourne
220. Keaton Mitchell
221. Kendre Miller
222. Roschon Johnson
223. Carson Steele
224. Blake Watson
225. Alexander Mattison
226. AJ Dillon
227. Samaje Perine
228. Jase McClellan
229. Theo Johnson
230. Gerald Everett
231. Mike Gesicki
232. Gardner Minshew
233. Jacoby Brissett
234. Aidan O'Connell
235. Hayden Hurst
236. Will Dissly (the public doesn't seem to be very interested in Will Dissly this year, curious.)
237. Kylen Granson
238. Erick All Jr.
239. Cade Stover
240. Wan'Dale Robinson
241. Elijah Mitchell
242. Quentin Johnston
243. Javon Baker
244. Jordan Mason
245. Eric Gray
246. Cam Akers
247. Sione Vaki
248. Tre Tucker
249. Trenton Irwin
250. Jared Wiley, I did it, I typed 250 names! Bring on the 2024 season, let's go!
