It is a disorienting time of year for Fantasy managers. Two weeks ago, we had six teams on a bye, in Week 13, it was zero teams, and in Week 14, we're losing six more. That causes whiplash in terms of some of the mediocre players who have played all three weeks, moving up and down the rankings despite the fact that their projection has remained relatively stable. Bottom line is that you'll have to be less picky when choosing your Week 14 starters.
Of course, that last sentence may cause you a lot of anxiety. That's because it's the last week of the regular season. If your leagues are like my leagues, about a third of you have locked up a playoff spot, a third of you have been eliminated, and a third of you have must-win weeks. For those of you in the latter camp, I can't promise you a win, but I can promise we're going to dig deep to give you all the information that might help you get a win. And we're going to start by going back to Thursday.
D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen are both good starts
The Bears play the 49ers, so this may have been a question mark when you first looked at your lineup, but I can't sit Moore or Allen. Since Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator, Moore is WR3 with 62.3 Fantasy points in three games, and Allen isn't far behind with 56. Allen leads the Bears over that stretch with a 27.2% target share, and Moore is at 26.3%. Despite his struggles, Rome Odunze isn't far behind them at 22.8%; he just hasn't quite been on the same page with Caleb Williams. I wouldn't mind flexing Odunze, and I'm flat-out starting Williams as a top-12 QB. Even D'Andre Swift could be a start if Roschon Johnson is out.
Brandin Cooks is an add and a flex
Cooks led the Cowboys with a 19.4% target share in his first game back and scored 10.6 PPR Fantasy points thanks to a touchdown. I'm not sure he'll maintain that target share because CeeDee Lamb missed time in that game, but I'm not sure he'll need to against the Bengals. They've allowed nine different wide receivers to score double-digit Fantasy points against them in their last five games, and they just gave up 414 yards passing to Russell Wilson. On a sidenote, the Bengals have also surrendered the second-most Fantasy points to opposing tight ends, so start whoever starts there for the Cowboys.
Tua Tagovailoa is a starter
I had questions about the Dolphins offense in the cold at Lambeau last week. That looked smart for about 55 minutes of game time and then very dumb after they went up and down the field in garbage time. Regardless, they're back home against a miserable Jets pass defense, so we're starting Tagovailoa, De'Von Achane, Jonnu Smith, and Tyreek Hill. Tagovailoa has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt or better in three straight games, which boosts his efficiency in the projections, and he also has at least 36 pass attempts in all three games, as the team's run-pass ratio has shifted. That's a good thing for all the pass catchers, but Jaylen Waddle remains a boom/bust flex.
Jordan Mason is the number one waiver wire priority
Christian McCaffrey is suspected to have suffered a PCL injury that could end his season. In his absence, Jordan Mason ran 13 times for 78 yards against the Bills. Mason is rostered in 63% of CBS leagues, and looking for him should be the first thing you do when you set your Fantasy waiver priority. Mason was second in the NFL in rushing yards the first seven weeks of the season, and we would expect him to dominate running back touches for the 49ers as long as he's healthy and the team is competitive. Isaac Guerendo is a good add as well, but he's nothing more than a desperation flex unless something changes.
We expect Isiah Pacheco to overtake Kareem Hunt
Pacheco and Hunt both had seven rush attempts in Week 13. Pacheco gained 44 yards, and Hunt gained 15. Hunt out-targeted Pacheco four-to-one but turned those four targets into two catches for zero yards. Hunt also played one more offensive snap. Since it was Pacheco's first game back, I am actually pretty encouraged by those numbers. For Week 14, I am projecting Pacheco for 13 carries to Hunt's 10. Against the Chargers, you may not want to start either one, but if I had to start one, it would be Pacheco.
Najee Harris does not like to share
Harris reclaimed his role as a true lead back in Week 13. He turned 16 rush attempts and six targets into 129 total yards and 24.9 PPR Fantasy points. Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson combined for 10 touches themselves, but Harris was running the show. Advanced metrics say this is Harris' best season as a rusher. His 26.6% avoid rate is a career-best by six points, as is his 1.36 weighted yards created per opportunity. View him as a must-start in Week 14 against the Cleveland Browns, but I hope you have other plans in the playoffs. He faces the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs in the Fantasy playoffs, three of the best run defenses in the league.
Tank Dell is droppable
I don't normally write about teams on bye, but I'm sure some of you are wondering about Dell, who had one catch for 23 yards. He's droppable in redraft if you have a roster squeeze, particularly if you must win this week. In the three games since Nico Collins returned, Dell has one game with double-digit Fantasy points, and he only scored 10.2 in that one. His target share is just 16.5% in that stretch. I am not giving up on Dell in Dynasty, but I don't have much hope he'll get better this season.
Marvin Harrison Jr. bounces back
Jonathan Gannon said this week that they would get Harrison more involved, and they did. The rookie saw 12 targets in Week 13 and turned them into 17 PPR Fantasy points. He's a must-start in a mediocre matchup this week against Seattle, and then he gets the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams in the Fantasy playoffs. For this week, I am boosting Harrison's target share up to 23%, but another week of double-digit targets could boost him up to borderline top-12 range for the Fantasy playoffs.
We may have a Breece Hall and a Garrett Wilson problem
I've continued to expect Hall and Wilson to flip the switch, and I've continued to be disappointed. This week, I am getting a bit more realistic in the projections. It starts with target share. In Week 13, Wilson was again out-targeted by Davante Adams, while Hall saw just one target. Running backs Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis combined for five catches. This is a big swing for Hall, who falls to a 13% target share in this week's projections, but it's just confirmation for Wilson. Adams' 31% target share has been pretty steady since he joined the team. This week, I'll finally rank Adams ahead of Wilson, and I'll have to further ding Wilson's efficiency. The third-year wide receiver is averaging just 6.5 yards per target, which is actually below his career average. He also has a career-low aDOT (9.1) and yards per catch (10.3). You're starting both of these guys because of the byes, but they may not be must-starts in the Fantasy playoffs.
We're actually going to recommend starting Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Westbrook-Ikhine saw a season-high eight targets in Week 13 and scored a career-high 21.2 PPR Fantasy points. He's now scored eight touchdowns in his last eight games and at least 12 PPR Fantasy points in five of his last six outings. This started out looking like a lucky streak of touchdowns and big plays, but he now has a 19.5% target share over the last month. I'll be boosting him up to 19% in my Week 14 projections, which is plenty with six teams on a bye and a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Bucky Irving, RB1, has validated
Irving broke out last week, but there were still some reasons to question whether it was just one great week. After all, Rachaad White had the same number of rush attempts in Week 12. Irving left no doubt in Week 13, running 25 times for 152 yards and leading the running backs with three targets, catching all of them. It'll boost Irving's rush share up to 43%, and his efficiency creeps up to 5.5 yards per carry. He looks like a legitimate league-winning running back and a dark horse for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
