We've got two weeks of preseason action down now, and while teams don't necessarily telegraph their in-season plans the way they once used to during the second week of preseason games, there was still a lot to be gleaned from the action around the league this week.
Today's newsletter has plenty of my thoughts on the players whose stock is up and down coming out of this weekend's games, but before we get to all that, I want to repeat something I said last week: It's important not to overreact to preseason outcomes.
Everything we're talking about at this point in the year – primarily injuries and apparent depth chart shuffles – are simply snapshots in time. There's going to be a ton of talk about which team is using which sleeper with their first team offense or which early-round rookie is apparently buried on the depth chart right now, but you need to remind yourself that all this means is that this is where things stand right now.
A lot of what we're talking about right now relates to Week 1 opportunities, and that's important because Week 1 is the most predictable part of the season in terms of playing time. Getting off to a good start matters, and all other things being equal, you'd rather have a player in the lineup, playing important snaps in Week 1 than not.
But whether you've been playing Fantasy Football for years or are a newbie, it's important to remind yourself that Week 1 is also, in many ways, the least important week of the season. You're trying to win a championship, and doing so may require drafting a few players who might not have a Week 1 role but do have a bunch of upside down the road.
Keep that in mind as you read on today. That's not to say these storylines don't matter, of course – it's to say that the ones I've identified as the biggest winners and biggest losers from this weekend's games might actually be the ones that do matter. And, as always, if you've got any thoughts, comments, or questions about the first week of preseason or anything else leading up to your drafts, make sure you send them my way at Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to be included in a mailbag column later this week.
And now, let's get to the winners and losers from this weekend's action:
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Biggest Winners and Losers from Preseason Week 2
One of the biggest storylines we've been following out of training camp has been the seeming collapse of Antonio Gibson's value. Gibson entered camp as the presumed starter for the Commanders, but he's been ceding playing time to rookie Brian Robinson on the first team, and Saturday's preseason game against the Chiefs did nothing to turn that narrative around.
Gibson did start the second preseason game for the Commanders … on the kickoff team, as Robinson was the RB1 when the offense was on the field. He played 11 of 19 snaps with Carson Wentz in the game, dominating early-down snaps while Gibson played all of the third-down snaps. That isn't as good a sign for Gibson as you might think/wish, because J.D. McKissic was held out with an injury. It looks like this is trending toward being a true three-way split, with Robinson potentially already having usurped Gibson as the early-down and short-yardage back.
That doesn't mean Gibson is stuck in the small part of that rotation – and the fact that he was getting passing situation snaps is a good sign in case McKissic has to miss time – but it's obvious his appeal has taken a big hit since the start of camp. Robinson is certainly a winner this weekend as his stock continues to rise, though you don't want to go wild in moving him up your draft board – he's still likely splitting carries in what figures to be a mediocre offense, and there might not be much of a passing role for him. Robinson, Gibson, and McKissic should all be drafted just as bench options at this point.
ProFootballFocus' preseason recaps are invaluable resources in breaking down the preseason, because they chart who was on the field and when, so the playing time references here mostly come from their breakdowns, which you should definitely check out.
Let's see whose stock is pointing up and who is looking down after one week of fake games:
Biggest winners
There was some consternation among Fantasy Twitter Friday evening when Pierce didn't play in the first half, but that was apparently a good thing – coach Lovie Smith told reporters he wanted to get a longer look from Marlon Mack after Pierce impressed in the first preseason game. That doesn't mean Pierce is locked in as the starter, but Mack had 29 yards on eight carries and continues to look pretty pedestrian, so I'd say Pierce certainly has the inside track at this point. His ADP – which is up to 93.7 over the past week at NFC drafts – figures to sky rocket, but I hesitate to move him up too much in my rankings. Pierce probably won't get a ton of third down opportunities for the Texans, so he's probably just an early-down back in a bad offense, which isn't a super interesting profile for Fantasy. I'm fine moving him into the RB3 range, but I would still rather have someone like Rashaad Penny (going just ahead of Pierce in ADP right now). It's fine to be intrigued by Pierce, but if he starts to get pushed into the fifth or sixth round range, I'm out.
Davis played 10 snaps Saturday and picked up right where he left off last postseason, picking up 47 yards on two catches, including a pretty 28-yard touchdown to cap off Josh Allen's only drive in the game. Davis remains a bit of a leap of faith – he's been dynamic on a per-route basis but hasn't managed to lock in anything like a full-time job his first two seasons in the league – but it's hard to argue against the upside here. He's a big, dynamic playmaker who clearly has Allen's trust, and all indications – including in the preseason so far – are that he's got that full-time role. His ADP is all the way up to 46.7 over the past week, and that's only going to keep rising. As it probably should.
I'll also point out that Isaiah McKenzie remains the clear No. 3 and primary slot option here, out-snapping Jamison Crowder 7-2 early on. Cole Beasley averaged 108 targets over three seasons as the Bills primary slot receiver, so McKenzie has legitimate sleeper appeal in this offense and should be drafted in all PPR leagues at least.
Pierce ran third among the team's receivers in the previous game, but he was out there on two-receiver sets This time around while Parris Campbell mostly worked out of the slot. That would put Pierce in an every down role alongside Michael Pittman, and it's enough to make him a viable late-round option in re-draft formats. There probably isn't huge upside here – this is still a run-first offense and Pierce peaked at 52 catches, 884 yards and eight touchdowns in college – but he could emerge as a useful option pretty early on given his role already.
Generally, I don't care much about players producing in the preseason, but I can't ignore what Likely has done in his first two preseason games – 144 yards, including 100 on eight catches and a touchdown in just the first half of Sunday's game. Mark Andrews isn't going anywhere, so the Ravens will need to run more two-TE sets after ranking 17th in pass attempts with at least two on the field last season. In your typical 12-team leagues with no TE-premium scoring, Likely can probably continue to be ignored, but in TE-premium or deeper leagues (like Best Ball formats), Likely has impressed enough that he needs to be on your radar. And, if something were to happen to Andrews, he might just be a must-roster player.
Josh Jacobs and Ameer Abdullah didn't play in this game again, so it doesn't seem like White has forced his way into the starting situation just yet. But it seems pretty clear he's ahead of Kenyan Drake, who mostly handled third downs with the starters this week. White needs something to happen to Jacobs, whose job seems significantly safer than it did when he surprisingly played in the Hall of Fame game, but he's clearly the primary handcuff here. Though, I will say Abdullah has sneaky early-season PPR appeal if you're going with a zero-RB build, because Josh McDaniels' offenses have historically targeted their running backs quite a bit.
Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool were both active and played a bunch in this one, but Pickens was clearly ahead of Claypool, playing 21 snaps to Claypool's 16 – the gap in routes run (17-10) was even more pronounced. That doesn't necessarily mean Pickens is ahead of Claypool – they largely split work in two-receiver sets – but it's clear Pickens has a locked-in role in this offense right now. Whether Mitchell Trubisky and/or Kenny Pickett will be able to support multiple viable Fantasy receivers and a high-end running back is a fair question, but Pickens is certainly among the rookie wide receivers worth drafting at this point.
The Jaguars ran more or less a full dress rehearsal with Trevor Lawrence playing 40 snaps and all of their primary receivers available, and Kirk led the way with 33 snaps, 22 routes run, and a whopping eight targets – Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenault combined for seven targets. I'm not a huge fan of the contract the Jaguars gave Kirk, but all indications out of camp and in this preseason game indicate he's being viewed as a clear No. 1 option. That probably won't be enough to make Kirk a must-start Fantasy option, but he's probably a nice value as WR40.
For whatever reason, Dotson isn't getting near the same kind of respect his other rookie wide receiver peers are. He's going behind, among others, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, Treylon Burks, Skyy Moore, and Chris Olave, despite arguably having a more obvious role than any of them. He played 18 of 19 snaps with Carson Wentz and ran 10 routes, the same number as Terry McLaurin. McLaurin is obviously the No. 1 guy here, but Washington liked Dotson enough to make him the No. 16 pick in this year's draft, and while it's fair to wonder how much value Wentz's No. 2 target has, Dotson probably deserves more love from the Fantasy world.
Robinson was on the field for 17 of the 24 snaps with Daniel Jones Sunday, including nearly all of the three-wide sets. That means he should still have a role even when Kadarius Toney is healthy, and I think we can probably assume Robinson is in the starting lineup for now. That might be contingent on how long it takes Sterling Shepard to get up to full health coming off his ruptured Achilles, however seeing as Shepard is still on the PUP list, it isn't much of a concern at this point. Robinson has late-round appeal in PPR leagues, especially if you buy that Brian Daboll is going to help this offense take a step forward.
Biggest losers
Skyy Moore
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman weren't active in this one and Moore was still a clear third in the Chiefs WR hierarchy, behind both Marquez Valdes-Scantling (understandably) and Justin Watson (less so). Moore played 12 of 25 snaps with Patrick Mahomes on the field, and while there's still time for the rookie to work his way into a bigger role, it looks like playing time is likely to be hard to come by early in the season. It's fine to roll the dice on him as a late-round sleeper, but understand you'll need to be patient with the second-round pick, and it's possible he just doesn't emerge as the contributor we're hoping to see this season.
With Miles Sanders out with a hamstring injury, there's an opportunity in the Eagles backfield, but Sanders didn't get the first crack at it Sunday. Boston Scott played the first drive, with Gainwell splitting time with him from that point on. Gainwell was probably a bit more impressive than Scott, outrushing him 46 to 33 on one more carry (both scored a touchdown), and he's going to have a role no matter what – Gainwell figures to see more third-down snaps than anyone else, at least. But at this point, it doesn't look like Gainwell is in line to be a featured back even if Sanders is out. There's plenty of upside there in spite of that, but don't draft Gainwell expecting him to be an immediate star even if Sanders is out.
Cook was the third back to come into the game for the Bills, as reports of Zack Moss' increased role appear to have some legs. Of course, Singletary took every snap with the BIlls starters, with PFF noting he didn't leave the game until the offensive line starters did. He had four carries and ran six routes and generally looked pretty good – just like he did when he got the chance to be the No. 1 back late last season. Singletary is, at this point, the clear lead back for the Bills, so the question is whether they're likely to lean on him heavily as they did late last season or if this is going to be a three-way split. Either way, it doesn't bode well for Cook, the team's second-round pick, to make much of a Fantasy impact early on. He's just a late-round dart throw for me, especially in an offense that has been one of the worst for running backs in Fantasy over the past three seasons.
Sleeper tight ends: Albert Okwuegbunam, Noah Fant, and Mike Gesicki
All three have sleeper appeal in the later rounds on Draft Day, but their preseason usage hasn't been ideal. Fant was splitting snaps with Will Dissly Thursday, while both Okwuegbunam and Gesicki were still seeing snaps well after the rest of their team's starters were out. Gesicki has talked about how he is effectively learning a new position, having played nearly all of his snaps out of the slot last season while playing primarily in-line so far, while Okwuegbunam has received praise during camp for his play, so it's not like any of these guys are buried. But each of them looks to be in a timeshare at the tight end position, and that's never ideal. You definitely can't draft any of this trio as your only option in the later rounds.
Treylon Burks
The Titans rotated five receivers over the first three drives Saturday, with Burks splitting time pretty much evenly with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Racey McMath, Cody Hollister, and Kyle Philips. That is not the most impressive list of names, so the fact that Burks still isn't standing out does not bode well for his chances of making an early-season impact. I still like the blend of size and speed Burks brings to the table, but he's going off the board within a round of Robert Woods, and I just can't justify it. If you're going to draft Burks, you need to know it might take a while and you'll have to be patient. Drafting him only to drop him after a quiet Week 1 won't make any sense.
We've been hoping to see some sign that Spiller is moving up the depth chart, but he watched Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree split reps in the first quarter before coming on in the second. With starter Easton Stick in, Kelley led with seven carries while Rountree ran a team-high eight routes; Spiller played just two snaps in that time, so he's a pretty clear distant third in the hierarchy here – which means he's fourth when Austin Ekeler is considered. Spiller still has some upside, but you'd rather draft Kelley at this point. For what it's worth, Spiller left the game with a minor ankle injury, though it isn't expected to be a serious issue at this point.
Injuries, News, and Notes
Michael Thomas is dealing with a hamstring injury
Given how the past two years have gone for Thomas, any injury is going to stand out. Saints coach Dennis Allen seemed to downplay the issue, saying it was "a little bit of a hamstring". Hamstring injuries have an annoying tendency to linger if they aren't allowed to fully heal, so hopefully, that won't be an issue here. It's something we'll keep an eye on in the coming days, but it shouldn't be enough to change his price much yet – he's 57.8 overall over the past week.
There is no timetable for Ken Walker's return
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told reporters he was expecting to have Walker back from hernia surgery by Week 1, so this represents a change in his public posture. Carroll is almost always overly optimistic, so my assumption since we learned about this injury was that a Week 1 return seemed unlikely. That isn't guaranteed, of course, but you're better off assuming Walker won't be ready for the start of the season, putting Rashaad Penny in line for plenty of early-season carries. Obviously, the context is different without Russell Wilson, but don't forget, Penny had 671 yards and six touchdowns in his final five games last season, averaging 18.4 carries per game. I'd take the under on all of those numbers, but he should still get enough work to be a viable RB2 early in the season.
Christian Watson has been cleared to participate in team drills
The No. 34 pick in the NFL Draft, Watson has been recovering from a knee injury prior to camp, so this represents a big step. Watson has been making progress in practice lately, and we'll get to see him start to compete for a rotation spot now. Watson remains a viable late-round dice role in re-draft formats, but he's also got his work cut out for him given the presence of veterans Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb, plus fellow rookie Romeo Doubs, who has scored in each of the first two preseason games and might be ahead of Watson, too.
Tom Brady will return to the team this week
Brady has been away from the team since early August as part of a planned personal absence, though we have no idea what that actually meant. Still, he's expected to be back early this week, so that shouldn't be a concern anymore. What might be a concern is that the Bucs have already lost starting center Ryan Jensen and guard Aaron Stinnie, who may have been the starter at left guard prior to the injury. Brady has remained remarkably productive into his mid-40s, but pressure up the middle has been one of the few ways to disrupt Brady throughout his career, so I can't say there's no concern here. I'll still bet on the 45-year-old as a must-start Fantasy QB, but the Bucs have had an awful lot of turnover on offense, so there's some risk here.
Matt Corral's season may be over
Corral suffered a Lisfranc ligament tear, an injury that could end his season – Panthers coach Matt Rhule told reporters, "I'm pretty sure it will be a long-term injury.'' Corral was the 94th overall pick in this year's draft but wasn't expected to compete for playing time this season – he wasn't part of the Baker Mayfield/Sam Darnold battle and might have even been behind PJ Walker in the 2022 hierarchy. Corral still has some appeal in deeper Dynasty leagues, but even in Superflex or two-QB re-draft leagues you can safely ignore him.
