Many drafters will wait and wait to take a quarterback because there will always be somebody with modest weekly potential in the late rounds. That is definitely true.
But why go for "modest weekly potential" when you should shoot for "soul-crushing, league-winning potential?"
It's the quarterbacks in the first two tiers that have the most upside, of course. While you might wish to get them at a heavy discount, the reality is that many Fantasy managers prefer to take quarterbacks in Rounds 1 through 3. It's a reach you're just going to have to let them make. But if you can snare one of those first nine quarterbacks in the rankings at anything from a fair value to a total rip off, you're doing fine.
If you miss those stud quarterbacks, no big deal. You know you can fall back on finding an arm with "modest winning potential" later on anyway. This makes up the barely-populated third tier, consisting of Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow. Both will pilot exciting offenses with really good receiving options, giving them attractive upside, but they carry some downside based on age in Stafford's case and health and inexperience in Burrow's case. Both are worthy of beginning the year as starting Fantasy options for more than just a couple of weeks, and both might rapidly evolve into must-starts. That's why they're in a tier of their own.
This is when things get a little different compared to past years.
There's no question that the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins and even Ryan Fitzpatrick can help fill your lineup. But why take them when you can snag a quarterback with difference-making potential in the low-risk double-digit rounds?
The 2021 rookie class has created three high-upside quarterbacks who could rapidly become Fantasy gems: Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. The first two have incredible potential as rushers and all three have the arms to throw for over 250 yards with multiple scores per game.
An idea: spend a late pick on one of these three guys, not only to be a backup quarterback for your team, but as an investment. If within a month they're not producing, then you took the risk and lost and you can move on pretty easily. But if they hit ... at the very least you'll have some trade value to improve another spot on your lineup and at the very most you'll have a dynamite Fantasy breakout.
Besides, what else are you going to take in Round 12 or 13? A DST? A kicker?! Some handcuff running back who you'll just drop anyway?
DAVE'S FAVORITE STRATEGY: Hope to get a fair value drafting a top-tier quarterback. Whether you land one or settle for a field general in the middle/later rounds, don't pass up the chance to land a late-round quarterback who you believe could massively outperform his draft value by October.
Quarterback tiers (updated 9/1)
P. Mahomes
KC
Patrick Mahomes
KC
|
J. Allen
BUF
Josh Allen
BUF
|
K. Murray
ARI
Kyler Murray
ARI
|
L. Jackson
BAL
Lamar Jackson
BAL
|
D. Prescott
DAL
Dak Prescott
DAL
|
R. Wilson
PIT
Russell Wilson
PIT
|
J. Herbert
LAC
Justin Herbert
LAC
|
R. Tannehill
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
TEN
|
A. Rodgers
NYJ
Aaron Rodgers
NYJ
|
J. Hurts
PHI
Jalen Hurts
PHI
|
M. Stafford
LAR
Matthew Stafford
LAR
|
J. Burrow
CIN
Joe Burrow
CIN
|
T. Lawrence
JAC
Trevor Lawrence
JAC
|
J. Fields
PIT
Justin Fields
PIT
|
T. Lance
DAL
Trey Lance
DAL
|
B. Roethlisberger
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
PIT
|
T. Tagovailoa
MIA
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA
|
K. Cousins
ATL
Kirk Cousins
ATL
|
R. Fitzpatrick
WAS
Ryan Fitzpatrick
WAS
|
J. Winston
CLE
Jameis Winston
CLE
|
B. Mayfield
TB
Baker Mayfield
TB
|
Z. Wilson
DEN
Zach Wilson
DEN
|
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.