Can you win your league with a pick after Round 15? Maybe ask people who drafted James Robinson in 2020 or A.J. Brown. While it is certainly unusual, it absolutely happens. ADP is not perfectly efficient and players slip through the cracks. Sometimes it takes an injury, or a late trade. Sometimes it just takes a few weeks for a player to secure their role.
No matter what the cause, these types of super sleepers happen every year, and every year I write this column highlighting the guy I feel is the most likely. Just a warning, for some teams (I'm looking at you Vikings) there aren't a lot of great options. For other teams there are multiple options. Mac Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson both have a case in New England, but neither is the best option on their team.
For the purposes of this list I'm using Fantasy Pros consensus ADP, looking for players at 180 or below. Yes, I know some of these players should be going higher than that, that's kind of the point. They aren't. These are separated by division, and ranked by ADP, with a short write up on my favorite deep sleeper in every division.
Let's start with my favorite deep sleeper in Fantasy:
AFC East
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I expect to get some pushback on Meyers being included, but even by CBS ADP Meyers shows in Round 13 and not rising. I assume this has a lot to do with the fact that he's never caught a touchdown pass in a regular season game. In his final 11 games Meyers was on pace for 84 catches and 1,050 yards. That was in one of the worst pass offenses in the NFL. One way or another the Patriots will be better at passing the ball this year and Meyers appears to still be their No. 1 WR. He has top-20 upside in full PPR and I'd be willing to draft him an early as Round 9.
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AFC West
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He must get back on the field, but by all accounts, Jackson will be the No. 2 running back opposite Austin Ekeler, which should put him in line for 10-plus touches per game even without an injury. If Ekeler goes down again, Jackson would have a shot at being a top-20 running back. Jackson has averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 138 career carries and he's shown well in the passing game. Five times in his career he's seen at least 10 touches in a game and he's averaged 14.2 PPR Fantasy points per game in those outings.
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NFC North
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No rookie receiver landed in a better place for opportunity than St. Brown. His main competition for wide receiver targets is Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, and Quintez Cephus. He's seen a lot of targets in the preseason and Jared Goff has talked about teaching him the routes Cooper Kupp succeeded on. I believe St. Brown is the most complete route runner on the Lions and the most likely to have success on short-area targets, which is where Goff most often looks. This team should be in plenty of pass-heavy game scripts in the second half and they have all the motivation in the world to play their young guys to see if they'll stick.
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NFC South
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The Buccaneers couldn't be more effusive in their praise of Bernard. Tom Brady has his pass-catching back and that makes Bernard a sneaky RB2 candidate in full PPR leagues. It's possible he could also earn some early-down work, but even as a pass-catching back there is top-20 upside in full PPR. You can mostly ignore Bernard in non-PPR because of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, but it's possible Week 1 will change my mind on that as well. Last year the Brady threw 117 passes to their running backs, and that's with below-average pass-catching options.
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NFC East
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Sterling Shepard isn't all that exciting, but he's been pretty good when he and Daniel Jones have been on the field together and Kenny Golladay's hamstring continues to be a problem. Shepard himself has had trouble staying healthy, but he's averaged nearly eight targets per game over the past two seasons and he's been better per game than Odell Beckham, who is being drafted about 100 spots before Shepard. There's a path to a 90-catch season that makes Shepard a reliable No. 3 receiver in full PPR.
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NFC West
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Moore's skillset fits perfectly with Kliff Kingsbury's horizontal pass game. The team has schemed Moore heavily into the game plan in the preseason, giving him eight targets and three carries on his first 45 snaps. It's hard to imagine a role that big in the regular season, but Moore does have a rare combination of speed, strength, and shiftiness. His upside is something like Tyreek Hill's rookie year, when Hill had 593 yards receiving, 267 yards rushing, and 9 touchdowns.
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AFC North
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Admittedly we're getting to the divisions I'm not as excited about, and Bateman could start the year on short term IR. But he's a first round pick on a team that desperately needs WR help. Bateman averaged 16.7 yards per catch in college and has the type of big-play ability that could make him a Fantasy asset without a huge role. None of the other Ravens receivers have been healthy either, so when Bateman is ready he'll have every chance to be the team's No. 1 wide receiver.
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AFC South
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Evans has no floor at all and will not have any use in Fantasy unless Derrick Henry gets hurt but he could have a huge impact if something happens to Henry and the rest of the backs in that situation are being drafted much earlier. He had nearly 1,700 total yards and 23 touchdowns in his final year at Appalachian State and profiles as someone who would be more active in the passing game than Henry. If you're playing in a two-QB league my favorite deep sleeper from this division would be Tyrod Taylor. He may just start 17 games for the Texans this season.
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So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
