This week may be one of the most difficult for Fantasy Football analysis. We just spent six months fine-tuning rankings and projections and now one afternoon of football threatens it all. Knowing when to hold steady and when to make rapid changes is very difficult and highly important.
As a rule, I'm more likely to change my mind after one Week on things I didn't feel all that confident about in the first place. I'm also more willing to change my mind about usage than I am efficient. But for the most part, I'm going to hold steady after Week 1. But I'll admit Saquon Barkley tested that.
Saquon Barkley is a top-five RB rest of season
The Case: Barkley was the No. 1 running back in PPR in Week 1 against a Titans defense that gave up the fewest Fantasy points to running backs in 2021. He ran for a whopping 164 yards on 18 carries and led the Giants in both targets (7) and receptions (6).
If you were looking for an indication that 2018 Barkley was back, I'm not sure you could ask for much more than a 68-yard game-breaking run and a 33% target share from Daniel Jones. If he doesn't get hurt, he may just be the best running back in football this season.
The Verdict: Don't believe it. Yet.
It may only take one more week for me to buy into this one, but one monster performance is not quite enough to take a guy from 12th to the top five. It is close though.
I would still prefer Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, and Austin Ekeler for sure. I'd have a hard time making a definitive argument for Barkley over D'Andre Swift after the way Swift ran, and I'm not quite ready to move the Giants' running back ahead of Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon. I'd even like to give Aaron Jones one more week.
But the fact is that Barkley has reinserted himself in this conversation and he once again looks like he's one of a handful of backs who could be the RB1 overall at the end of the year. Let's hope he can stay healthy.
Saquon Barkley is a top-five running back rest of season
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 12, 2022
Aaron Rodgers is droppable in a one-QB leagues
The Case: One of the things I was most interested in seeing is how Aaron Rodgers did without Davante Adams and how Patrick Mahomes did without Tyreek Hill. Mahomes finished as QB1 on the week with 360 passing yards and five touchdowns. Rodgers finished as QB30, and that's only because as of the time I'm writing this the Broncos and Seahawks have yet to kickoff.
Rodgers' leading receiver in this game was A.J. Dillon with 46 yards. He just does not have enough help this year in Green Bay. You can find someone better on the waiver wire.
The Verdict: Don't believe it.
First off, we need to remember that Rodgers was even worse in Week 1 of last year when he finished as QB35 with 1.3 Fantasy points. From Week 2 on, only Josh Allen scored more Fantasy points per game. So yeah, we probably shouldn't drop Rodgers because of a bad Week 1.
At the very least, we need to see what this offense looks like with Allen Lazard, who Rodgers has been telling us will be his No. 1 wide receiver. Hopefully, that happens this week against the Bears. If this Packers offense looks this bad against the Bears? Then we can start talking about dropping Rodgers.
As for the receivers, I would try to hold on to the rookies but I'm fine with dropping Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb.
Aaron Rodgers is droppable in a one-quarterback league
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 12, 2022
James Robinson will be the best Jaguars RB in Fantasy this season
The Case: In one of the bigger shocks of the week, Robinson played 51% of the snaps in his first game back from a torn Achilles, and out-touched Travis Etienne 12-to-6. Robinson turned those 12 touches into 69 yards and two touchdowns on his way to what looks to be a top-12 finish in Week 2.
If Robinson is playing 51% of the snaps in his first game back, we should only expect his role to grow. He's a start at running back and Etienne becomes a touchdown-dependent flex.
The Verdict: Believe it.
Considering basically no running back has come back from this injury and looked good, some caution is in order here. But if Robinson can say healthy, it's tough to make a case that Etienne is going to be better than him. Just don't take that to mean Etienne is going to be bad. He had two opportunities where he could have scored touchdowns in this game as well.
I would expect the Jaguars' backs to be a bit up and down, as committee backs often are. View both as high-end flexes with upside. But as long as he stays healthy, I would expect Robinson to be the best over the course of the season.
Time for Week 1 Believe It or Not polls
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 12, 2022
James Robinson will be the best Jaguars running back in Fantasy this season.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the only Browns that need to be rostered (over the next two months)
The Case: Jacoby Brissett managed the Cleveland Browns to a season-opening victory over the Carolina Panthers and in the process reminded us what a Brissett-led offense looks like. Chubb and Hunt combined for 211 yards of offense and two touchdowns. The rest of the team combined for 144 yards and four field goals.
Donovan Peoples-Jones led the wide receivers with six catches for 60 yards on 11 targets while Harrison Bryant led the tight ends with two catches for 18 yards on four targets. The two pass catchers we actually drafted, Amari Cooper and David Njoku, combined for 6.4 Fantasy points on seven targets. You don't need to roster any of them.
The Verdict: Don't believe it.
I had grave concerns about this passing attack before the season, but I don't seriously believe that Donovan Peoples-Jones is going to out-target Cooper like this on a regular basis. I expect there will be a 10-target game for Cooper around the corner. He may even find the end zone once or twice. I would hold him at least through Week 3. If things haven't improved by then, you can let him go.
Njoku is a different story. If you need a starting tight end this week, I'll have a few options in the position preview. Gerald Everett will probably be at the top of the list. If you really believe in Njoku, you can pick him back up in November a week or two before Deshaun Watson is scheduled to return.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the only Browns that need to be rostered in Fantasy Football for the next two months
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 12, 2022
Drake London is already a weekly starter in a three WR league
The Case: London tied Kyle Pitts for the team lead in targets and easily led the team in production in the passing game. He's a top-10 pick who just put up 12.4 PPR Fantasy points in his debut against a good Saints defense. London played 81% of the team's pass snaps and earned a 31% share of the team's air yards.
The Verdict: Believe it
A 22% target share for a wide receiver as talented as London would be more than enough to support a boom/bust WR3-type season from London. But like Robinson, I would only expect his role to grow. Remember, London was a partial participant in practice leading up to this week as well. There's top-20 upside here, especially if Marcus Mariota can be a little better as a passer.
Drake London is already a weekly starter in a three wide receiver league
— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) September 12, 2022