Fantasy Football 2024 end of July ADP Review: Round 1, plus position by position ADP takeaways

USATSI

The Average Draft Position data at our disposal on any site before the middle of August isn't always the best guide. Some of it can be awful when you factor in casual Fantasy players doing mock drafts for fun.

But this is the beginning of an outline you can follow for how PPR drafts might look this season. And we're going to study the CBS Sports ADP every week leading up to Week 1.

You never want to follow ADP directly for your drafts. The idea is to see where you can find potential value picks -- and players going too soon that you might want to avoid. We'll help you to navigate that ADP over the next month to make the best decisions for your real draft.

So let's get started with our first look at the CBS Sports ADP. And we'll start with a breakdown of where Round 1 stands just before the Hall of Fame game.

Round 1 ADP

1. Christian McCaffrey

2. CeeDee Lamb

3. Bijan Robinson

4. Breece Hall

5. Tyreek Hill

10. Jonathan Taylor

11. A.J. Brown

12. Jahmyr Gibbs

As you see them here, the first eight players should be locked in, but I can't entirely agree with the order. My top eight in PPR are McCaffrey, Lamb, Hill, Chase, St. Brown, Hall, Robinson and Jefferson. But the order might just be about personal preference.

After No. 8, I would not draft Barkley or Taylor in the first round, and I prefer Brown at No. 9, Garrett Wilson at No. 10, Puka Nacua at No. 11 and Gibbs at No. 12. Based on ADP, Wilson is the No. 13 overall player and Nacua is at No. 18.

You should be beyond thrilled if you can draft Nacua at that point in Round 2. And his ADP is behind Marvin Harrison Jr., Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams. I expect Nacua's ADP to rise into Round 1 over the next month.

Quarterbacks

We've spent a lot of time on our Fantasy Football Today podcast talking about how the quarterback ADP has been low. That's starting to change, and Patrick Mahomes (No. 22 overall player) and Josh Allen (No. 23) now have a Round 2 ADP, with Jalen Hurts (No. 25) not far behind. I will likely avoid all three of those quarterbacks if the cost is a top 24 overall pick.

The ADP top 10 order of the quarterbacks isn't surprising with Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love and Kyler Murray. I expect a lot of different combinations from those 10, and my only major differences are Richardson is fifth and Murray is eighth. I love drafting Murray at his current ADP of 92.2.

Once you get past those 10 guys, the next seven quarterbacks will also likely go in many different combinations. The ADP currently is Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Jayden Daniels, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence. Of that group, my favorite one is Daniels, who has an ADP of 110.2. He has top-10 upside -- if not higher -- based on his rushing potential.

For deeper leagues, my favorite late-round quarterbacks are Aaron Rodgers (ADP of 157.3), Deshaun Watson (160.6) and Will Levis (191.0). Rodgers and Watson will hopefully stay healthy all season, and Watson's rushing potential could make him a top-12 quarterback this year. And Levis is one of my favorite sleepers with coaching, offensive line and receiver upgrades across the board in Tennessee.

Running backs

The Round 2 running backs are interesting once you get past the top six guys of McCaffrey, Robinson, Hall, Barkley, Taylor and Gibbs. I'm surprised to see Etienne and Henry ahead of Williams, and I don't like that Josh Jacobs is the No. 24 overall player.

There are 17 running backs being drafted in the first four rounds, with Isiah Pacheco, De'Von Achane, James Cook, Rachaad White, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara and Kenneth Walker III joining the aforementioned group. Walker has the lowest ADP at 43.5, and then we see a drop-off at the position.

The next group of running backs to round out the top 24 has plenty of uncertainty (Zamir White, James Conner, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, Najee Harris, D'Andre Swift and Raheem Mostert), and I'm not fond of drafting Jones (ADP of 65.6) and Mostert (71.6) at that cost. One running back who belongs in this group, if not ahead of all of them, is Rhamondre Stevenson. He's currently one of the best value picks at 79.3. Jaylen Warren (100.3) also has an amazing ADP as well.

I'm curious to track some of the ambiguous backfields in Tennessee, Cincinnati and Washington. Currently, the ADP has Tony Pollard (79.0) over Tyjae Spears (105.1), Zack Moss (79.3) over Chase Brown (114.8) and Austin Ekeler (86.5) over Brian Robinson Jr. (89.7). I'm easily drafting the latter in every scenario, especially with Brown gaining momentum as the potential No. 1 running back for the Bengals.

Some of my favorite running back sleepers are Ty Chandler (139.5), MarShawn Lloyd (144.8), Tyrone Tracy (147.1), Jaleel McLaughlin (150.4), Kimani Vidal (156.3) and Elijah Mitchell (157.2). There are several lottery tickets in this group, and all of these running backs are cheap on Draft Day.

Wide receivers

The first thing I looked at for the receivers is what is happening in Round 2 after Nacua is drafted (again, he should be a Round 1 pick). And the next 12 guys off the board are Davante Adams, Nico Collins, Drake London, Chris Olave, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith, who has an ADP of 47.3 as the last receiver being drafted in Round 4.

Of that group, I would draft London, Olave, Collins and Waddle (in that order) ahead of Adams, and I wouldn't draft Adams until Round 3. I also expect Malik Nabers (ADP of 61.8) to rise into Round 4, and I would draft George Pickens (57.7) in Round 4 as well.

I don't like that Stefon Diggs (52.3) is being drafted ahead of Tank Dell (62.3), and Chris Godwin (85.0), Diontae Johnson (101.0) and Jameson Williams (128.2) are some wide receivers that I would love to get at this cost. Even later than that, some great values are Khalil Shakir (138.7), Curtis Samuel (138.8), Dontayvion Wicks (147.9), Josh Palmer (153.9), Josh Downs (154.4), Rashid Shaheed (164.5) and Ja'Lynn Polk (180.8).

One of Shakir or Samuel should make an impact this season for the Bills (I lean slightly toward Shakir now given his track record with Josh Allen), and Palmer might be the best receiver for the Chargers. Shaheed is also ridiculously low given his expanded role this season as the No. 2 receiver for the Saints.

Tight ends

The first thing that jumps out to me is Travis Kelce (ADP of 27.3) being drafted ahead of Sam LaPorta (34.8). I prefer LaPorta, and he is actually 13 spots overall behind Kelce (21 to 34), which is surprising.

I expect the top eight tight ends to remain the same, which are Kelce, LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram. But the order will likely differ in a lot of drafts, and I would take McBride over Andrews and Engram ahead of Kittle and Pitts.

Following those eight tight ends, the next eight guys off the board are David Njoku, Jake Ferguson, T.J. Hockenson, Brock Bowers, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Dalton Schultz and Pat Freiermuth. I would draft Ferguson first of this group, and I love the values for Goedert (116.1) and Freiermuth (145.3).

Hockenson (99.4) is someone I will likely avoid at this cost because of his knee injury, and I'm not drafting Kmet as a borderline starter. There are too many mouths to feed in Chicago now with the addition of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining D.J. Moore and Kmet with the Bears.