If you drafted Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb or A.J. Brown last year, then you know just how valuable it is to have a breakout player on your Fantasy Football team. We're talking about guys who posted career-best stats, outproducing even the highest expectations anyone had for them. In the case of these four plus plenty of others, it was simply a matter of massive opportunities and improved explosiveness pushing their numbers to uncharted territory.
If we're looking for just those factors -- more touches with better production -- then we can identify plenty of breakout candidates. For now, here are some early ones whose values can change based on what happens in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Breakout Running Backs
Yep, Pollard has a shot to beat his numbers from 2022. He's proven to be among the league's most elusive running backs, ranking among the top-15 last year in yards after contact per rush (3.82 yard average), explosive play rate (11.9% of his runs went for 12-plus yards) and Pro Football Focus' elusive rating (14th among qualifiers). Fantasy managers are ready to buy into Pollard based on those traits, but are the Cowboys? Team owner Jerry Jones said in March he believes he's "an integral part of looking forward," but there are plenty of people who think the team will draft a physical running back to complement Pollard. That would not only hurt his overall touch numbers but also his short-yardage touchdown potential. Still, Pollard should have a crack at exceeding the 232 touches he had in 2022 and potentially march over 1,400 total yards, even with a teammate helping him in the backfield. And if there isn't substantial help and Pollard has a path to handle most of the work, then he has top-5 overall upside.
There should be no shortage of opportunities for Walker to lead the Seahawks backfield this year. His physical style is a perfect match for what Pete Carroll wants, and there's even room for him to grow as a receiver. Such development would help stabilize his PPR consistency, which wasn't great in his rookie campaign (only three games with 17-plus PPR points and five with 15-plus). Obviously any improvement from Seattle's O-line would be a plus, but Walker is a cinch to see more carries near the goal line after the Seahawks as a team had only 19 snaps inside the 5 last year. Compare that to 2021, when they tallied 20 carries inside the 5. Plus, Seattle will always steer closer to league average in pass/run ratio. It's not much to project for Walker to finish as a top-10 Fantasy RB.
Pierce was on-pace for 1,450 total yards and seven touchdowns before an ankle injury put him on the shelf last December. Even with Devin Singletary joining the Texans, there's a real chance Pierce can meet or exceed those numbers in 2023, particularly since Houston's offense won't be anywhere near as sluggish with a new quarterback. Pierce had the second-best elusive rating among all qualifying running backs last season and actually led the NFL in avoided tackle rate (28.2%) despite playing behind the fourth-worst graded O-line in football, which contributed to Pierce's pathetic 0.99 yards before contact per attempt average. That line already improved with veteran guard Shaq Mason joining, and tight end Dalton Schultz isn't a bad blocker either. The hunch is Pierce leads this backfield thanks to his explosiveness, not to mention how he does when running inside/outside zone, which resulted in higher rushing averages and avoided tackle rates as a rookie. That's a huge boon given the expected run scheme the Texans plan on having this year.
Should Fantasy managers trust what we saw from Akers over his final six games of 2022? In that span he led all running backs in rush yards (512) and was top-15 in yards per carry (4.9), rush yards before contact per attempt, carries of five-plus rush yards (43.3% of his attempts) and avoided tackle rate (23.1%). In short, he looked like the player we thought we'd see before he even stepped foot into the NFL. Two worries for 2023: Akers won't be the only back regularly working in L.A., and the Rams offense won't be competitive enough. It would be mildly surprising to see the Rams take a running back with one of their three draft picks before 150th overall, especially since Akers will enter training camp healthy along with second-year passing-downs specialist Kyren Williams. As for the competitive part, the Rams offense should still have plenty of eye-candy to keep defenses honest, opening the door for a run game to succeed. No one should reach for Akers, but it's clear he has a path to have a very good statistical season.
The Falcons did absolutely nothing this offseason to improve its running back group, suggesting Arthur Smith & Co. are tickled with Tyler Allgeier working as one of their top offensive weapons. His final four games, all with Desmond Ridder starting, saw him amass at least 17 carries in each with a 5.5-yard rushing average. He was top-10 in pretty much every single rushing metric in those games except for yards before contact per rush, and that includes seeing eight defenders in the box on an astounding 44.3% of his late-season carries -- and averaging 4.7 yards per carry against them! Allgeier is a big-bodied back with some scoot in his legs and some pretty decent hands. If he can emerge as the bellcow, he'll find a ton of chances to rack up numbers and topple his Round 4-5 ADP.
Call him a preseason pick for the Cordarrelle Patterson late-career breakout award. Perine, 28, doesn't have to do much to exceed the 785 total yards or six total touchdowns he's notched as career-highs -- especially if he's Denver's leading rusher to begin the season. We just don't know if Javonte Williams will be ready to come back from his torn ACL by Week 1, or Week 4, or later. But the more time Perine has to cement a role greater than being a third-down back, the more likely it is he'll be a meaningful Fantasy running back. Furthermore, Sean Payton has a tremendous track record of using his running backs in the passing game, and Perine has been a solid pass-catcher for many years. Don't be surprised if you're looking for him by Round 8, if not even a smidge sooner.
Breakout Wide Receivers
There are a slew of second-year receivers who anyone can make the breakout call for, but Wilson is the one who carries the most upside. He averaged over 17 PPR points per game last year when he wasn't catching passes from Zach Wilson. And even when Zach Wilson played, Garrett Wilson caught 61% of his targets at 13.9 yards per catch with 5.4 yards after catch per reception. The 23-year-old is a terrific route-runner with amazing footwork and great hands -- pairing him with Aaron Rodgers should net some unreal numbers. Here's a fun stat: Of the 17 wide receivers with at least 100 targets from Aaron Rodgers in a season, only four failed to get at least 950 yards, and only five failed to get at least seven scores. It would actually be disappointing for Wilson to get just 950 yards and seven scores from Rodgers, but that's the floor.
Maybe it'll just take Jeudy not getting hurt for a career year. Or perhaps he can just play like he did in his final five games of 2022 (14.6 PPR points in four of those five). Or, and this isn't that much of a stretch, we can count on Sean Payton utilizing Jeudy to his absolute strengths much like he did for years with Michael Thomas. No matter the hope, optimism remains for Jeudy since he finished last season as Denver's top receiver. A change in offensive systems should create some better chances for him to make big plays and easily beat the 1,012 total yards and six scores he had in 2022.
Even when London was on the field with Kyle Pitts and had to deal with Marcus Mariota's throws, the then-rookie earned a 26.9% target share and scored four times (all in the red zone). His volume popped when Desmond Ridder was under center and Pitts was sidelined, naturally earning a much higher target share (32.7%) and connecting with Ridder (69.4% catch rate) unlike other Falcons players in those final four games. The hunch is that Ridder will continue leaning on London not only as a short-area target and as a red-zone weapon, but also as a contested-catch beast who can use his physical style to add numbers after the catch. And as last year proved, London should still wrangle a healthy target share even with Pitts playing. He has No. 2 wideout upside in full PPR, but that upside shrinks in leagues where catches do not count as much.
