Sometimes Fantasy managers get bored of starting the same ol' veteran receivers. It almost gets to the point where we want to bench the names we know for the younger, flashier players with more upside even if they're not household names.
Maybe after a sample size of a regular season, it's a good idea. But for Week 1? You should resist it unless the younger, flasher player is named Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers.
But these same well-known wideouts are still mildly debated by Fantasy managers, sometimes against each other for a single lineup spot. Four receivers who come to mind: Michael Pittman, Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, and Christian Kirk.
I thought it would be a good idea to dive into each one of them and figure out whether they are good or bad starting options for Week 1. And I'll list them based on how excited I am to start them.
Start: Chris Godwin
Currently starting in 51% of CBS Sports leagues
The prevailing thought this preseason was that Godwin would play almost exclusively in the slot, a move that makes sense on a number of levels. If that happens, he'll be in the theoretical "Cooper Kupp role" in new Bucs playcaller Liam Coen's version of the West Coast offense. You don't have to be a genius to know that's a smash spot. Coen even went out of his way to explain why he expects a "big year" from Godwin.
Godwin's 2023 was weighed down by his recovery from a torn ACL the year before. But in his final five games, he began to regain his form and the Bucs took notice, feeding him an average of nine targets per game over the span. It resulted in 15.7 PPR points per game, a humongous jump from the 10.9 he had in his first 12. Better yet, Godwin wasn't assigned back into the slot for those games, so the results were more about him feeling better than anything else.
Reports from Tampa Bay suggested Godwin looked like his old self in camp. That's crucial as he embarks on another season in a high-volume role that can pay off in modest yards after the catch numbers and red-zone opportunities.
The cherry on top for Week 1 is the matchup against the Commanders, a defense that has a great coach in Dan Quinn but is short on talent, especially in the secondary. Their best cornerback might very well be rookie Mike Sainristil, who will man the slot, but even he shouldn't be a tough draw for Godwin.
I view Godwin as a borderline WR2/3 for Week 1 and would start him over everyone else you read about on this page in PPR.
Start: Christian Kirk
Currently starting in 43% of CBS Sports leagues
Fantasy managers who bought the dip on Kirk following a preseason calf injury that sidelined him for a couple of weeks are going to benefit. He's not listed on the Jaguars injury report, he's expected to reprise his role as one of Trevor Lawrence's top targets, and he has a favorable matchup in what's expected to be a high-scoring game at Miami.
In Kirk's 11 games that he finished last season, he averaged 7.6 targets per. That's sweet volume for a slot receiver with some good explosive traits. He's also the best bet for the Jags from the slot -- he lined up there 66.5% of the time last year and is easily their most experienced receiver for that place on the field.
The matchup is what gets me psyched more than anything. The Dolphins secondary is already banged up with Jalen Ramsey a question mark to play, not that Ramsey was going to shadow Kirk exclusively anyway. Miami's slot cornerback is projected to be Kader Kohou, who allowed nearly an 84% catch rate last season with seven scores given up. Kirk should dust him on a number of routes. But the better advantage is for his quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who figures to get a hall pass against a depleted Dolphins front that might only have veterans Calais Campbell and Emmanuel Ogbah with rookie Chop Robinson as their primary pass rushers.
Kirk won't get every target funneled his way, but he should get plenty in Week 1. He's also a borderline WR2/3 in PPR (and more of a WR3 in non-PPR). If he has a big game he might be worth selling high on ASAP.
Flex: Terry McLaurin
Currently starting in 54% of CBS Sports leagues
The more I dug into McLaurin's matchup, the more I wasn't so certain he'd pop off for a big game. He should be useful -- maybe even 14 PPR-points-useful -- but I might not want to bank on him as an upside play.
You already know McLaurin has been a steady option for the Commanders for years -- he's averaged at least seven targets per game in each of his past four seasons including 7.8 in 2023. But you also know he's never been north of 15 PPR points per game in his career. That might have more to do with the quarterbacks he's caught passes from than anything else.
Enter Jayden Daniels: The rookie is known just as much for his incredible rushing traits as he is for his poise and accurate passing. He was bombastic at LSU last year, earning him the Heisman Trophy, and his work in preseason practices both with the team against in joint practice settings drew rave reviews. That includes developing his rhythm with McLaurin.
Tampa Bay's defense is what holds me back from shooting McLaurin way up in my rankings. Are they a shut-down unit? I'd be shocked. But they're aggressive about getting to the quarterback and forcing turnovers. They also have capable cornerbacks who at least have a shot to contain McLaurin and not get beat badly after the catch. I would expect them to play a lot of zone coverage until they can't afford to in the fourth quarter and McLaurin has traditionally been less explosive against zone coverage compared to man.
The silver lining is that Daniels was good when pressured in 2023, but that was in the SEC. If Daniels can avoid pressure, keep his eyes downfield, and deliver darts while on the move then I'll be wrong on McLaurin and he could erupt. But the safer expectation is for him to be the main benefactor from Daniels' arrival in D.C. and reliably come through for enough PPR points to register in the low-to-medium teens. That should make him an outstanding WR3 or a quality flex option.
Flex in PPR only: Michael Pittman
Currently starting in 76% of CBS Sports leagues
Pittman's the receiver I'm most worried about on this list. He's a good talent in an offense designed to dominate on the ground, not consistently challenge through the air.
The splits between Pittman's numbers with Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew last year were alarming. He averaged roughly two fewer targets per game with Richardson than Minshew. More jarring, however, was the stark difference in the Colts' pass rate in the red zone depending on the quarterback -- they threw 28.6% of the time with Richardson, and 45.3% with Minshew.
This is already a team that doesn't throw much to Pittman near the goal line anyway. Last year he had just four targets from 10 yards or closer to the end zone. He did score twice. Before last year he had 20 targets over 46 games. He scored five times. Wanna know why the Colts don't throw to him more? It's because they've invested in rushing the ball year after year, and they're primed to do it again this year with both Richardson and power back Jonathan Taylor.
The matchup against Houston is bad all the way around for the Colts' passing game. For one thing, Houston's pass rush got a serious upgrade with the arrival of veteran Danielle Hunter. He and Will Anderson will attempt to speed up Richardson's already-suspect mechanics when he drops back to throw. Cornerback Derek Stingley is probably the best option to cover Pittman, and cover him he'll easily do as he's faster than him. I would not expect many yards after catch from Pittman.
And just for fun, here's some history: Not only did Pittman not score nor exceed exactly 100 yards over two games against the Texans last year despite 18 targets, but over eight games against the Texans he's wrangled 55 targets and turned them into a cumulative 464 yards (some of that is rushing) and just two touchdowns. Just once in eight games has Pittman achieved 15 or more PPR/10 or more non-PPR Fantasy points.
I'd flex Pittman in PPR but that's it. I wouldn't trust him in half- or non-PPR if I could help it.
