2024 Fantasy Football: Dave Richard's 'Breakouts' 3.0 puts fresh spin on Kenneth Walker III, Christian Watson

Here are the players who we think will have a career-best year.

There are two points you need to know about how I classify breakout players for Fantasy Football. One, I view breakout candidates as guys who will have career-years, as in the best season of their lives. Two, I don't mind drafting breakouts at or before their Average Draft Position (or ADP). If you want to know why, please re-read the first point.

A lot of the names are well-known and popular. These will mostly be early-round picks in your Fantasy draft. That shouldn't surprise anyone -- we're not jibber-jabbering about sleepers, after all. But at least you know to have the most confidence possible drafting them with your most precious of picks.

Players are listed in order by their FantasyPros PPR ADP as of August 14.

Garrett Wilson

Stat to know: Of the 168 targets Wilson saw from everyone but Aaron Rodgers last year, 38 (roughly 22.6%) were deemed uncatchable. That's high but not totally out of hand, but it should shrivel with Rodgers playing. Also, of the 35 wideouts with at least 100 targets last year, Wilson was 23rd in average depth of target (ADOT) with 10.16, a by-product of catching passes from inferior quarterbacks.

What to expect: Wilson has all the makings of an elite NFL receiver who has already garnered huge target volume through his first two seasons. Marrying him with a accurate veteran quarterback, even an old one, should accelerate his efficiency and pop his touchdown production (he's scored seven times through two seasons). First-hand reports from camp say Rodgers looks like his old self and Wilson is easily his best receiver, even if they bicker on the sideline from time to time. 

FantasyPros ADP: 13.0
I'd take him: as soon as 10th overall in PPR and 15th in non-PPR

Isiah Pacheco

Stat to know: Pacheco had 15-plus touches in 15 games (including the postseason) and notched at least 15 PPR points in 10 of them.

What to expect: Because the Chiefs' offseason moves were focused on improving the receiving corps, Pacheco stands to benefit greatly as the lead rusher in an offense that has some newfound speed on the outside. That should push opposing safeties back and create some advantages for the Chiefs in the run game. Kansas City also did nothing to add to its depth behind Pacheco other than re-sign Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and there are whispers that Pacheco could assume more work on third downs. If Pacheco improves his vision and patience, he can really ratchet up his efficiency against lighter boxes from week to week and post a career-high in total yards while flirting with double-digit touchdowns. He can also take a step forward in his receiving to really make a jump.

FantasyPros ADP: 21.2
I'd take him: as soon as 17th overall in any format

Drake London

Stat to know: London has averaged 6.9 targets per game in each of his first two seasons, seeing at least seven targets in 20 of 33 career games. Over the past four seasons, any wide receiver seeing at least seven targets from Kirk Cousins has notched 15 or more PPR points 71% of the time, an outrageous rate. Also, through two seasons London has had an uncatchable target rate of 22.5%. Cousins over his past four seasons has had an off-target rate of 8.2% with no single season worse than 8.7%.

What to expect: We've only seen London catch from Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. Cousins is a step-up in class, and at least one wide receiver has averaged at least 7.2 targets per game from Cousins in five of his past six seasons. London is easily the top wide receiver and pretty much the most attractive target in Atlanta, so a steady dose of volume that could be anywhere from 7.0 to 8.5 per game makes him a big-time candidate for a career year. That wouldn't take that much -- a 75-950-5 stat line would do the trick, but he's capable of so much more.

FantasyPros ADP: 26.0
I'd take him: as soon as 20th overall in PPR and 24th in non-PPR

Chris Olave

Stat to know: From Week 12 through the end of the regular season, Olave averaged 15.2 PPR points per game despite a dip in targets (7.2 per game, down from 9.4 in his first 10 games) and ADOT (12.2, down from 13.8). The significance? These were games without Michael Thomas, which meant Olave had to operate as the Saints' No. 1 receiver and not as solely a deep threat.

What to expect: New Orleans got a much-needed change at play caller in Klint Kubiak. His experience in both Minnesota and San Francisco, not to mention his experience growing up with a famous football coach like Kyle Shanahan, could help unlock Olave into a much more dangerous wideout. There is no doubt that Olave will be the top target-getter for the Saints unless he misses playing time.

FantasyPros ADP: 23.8
I'd take him: as soon as 21st overall in PPR and 27th in non-PPR

Kenneth Walker III

Stat to know: In 10 games with at least 15 touches last season, Walker averaged 16.0 PPR points and scored eight times. That sounds pretty good but it was actually a little uneven -- he hit at least 17.9 in five of them and 13.9 or worse in the other five. His numbers were similar in 2022, which does make him a little boom-or-busty.

What to expect: A dedicated role. New play-caller Ryan Grubb has become fond of Walker and even called him a "three-tool guy," suggesting he can be useful on any play as a runner (duh), receiver (ooh) and pass blocker. That's wonderful since it seems apparent that Walker will be asked to run more routes and run outside of the tackles more than he used to. Backup Zach Charbonnet has missed recent days of practice and wasn't making inroads on Walker's workload anyway. This seems like a perfect trajectory for Walker to have a monster season.

FantasyPros ADP: 43.0
I'd take him: as soon as 33rd overall in PPR and 25th overall in non-PPR

Dalton Kincaid

Stat to know: Stefon Diggs saw at least 150 targets in each of his past four seasons with the Bills including 160 targets in 2023. Kincaid was second on the team with 91 targets in 16 games last season. Without a clear replacement for Diggs in the Bills lineup, it's easy to buy into Kincaid getting good target volume.

What to expect: Kincaid is a size/speed matchup option for the Bills, one of a few unique-bodied pass-catchers they have on the roster. He averaged 5.7 targets per game under Joe Brady's playcalling in 2023, though that includes a couple of games where he saw a boost in work with Dawson Knox sidelined. Now it's assumed Kincaid will be in an every-down role, so Knox's presence shouldn't hurt his opportunities. The training camp reports have been glowing for him, though they've also been pretty good for rookie Keon Coleman, so it could be a close call between those two for the target lead for Buffalo. But the fact he's in the conversation is very good.

FantasyPros ADP: 51.6
I'd take him: before 55th overall and around 60th overall in non-PPR

Anthony Richardson

Stat to know: Richardson completed 59.5% of his throws over four games, an ugly number but still better than any completion rate he had in college. And on throws of 10 or fewer Air Yards, Richardson completed 69.1%, which again is poor by comparison to the rest of the league but a step in the right direction for him. Speaking of steps in the right direction, Richardson played a little more than 10 quarters of pro ball last season and had 25 rushes, 136 yards and four touchdowns. Just for fun, if you were to extrapolate that out over a full 68-quarter season, that would put him on-pace for 154 carries, 840 yards and, uh, 24 rushing touchdowns. The touchdown number is ludicrous but the others? Kind of expected!

What to expect: The Colts might try to rein in Richardson a little bit so that he doesn't hurt himself again. They also added Adonai Mitchell to their receiving corps, giving them another option for Richardson to throw to. But otherwise, I would expect things to stay as they were last season, which kicks down the door for Richardson to have some monster Fantasy weeks like he had in Week 1 (22.9) and 4 (33.6).

FantasyPros ADP: 54.2
I'd take him: around 60th overall as QB7, and QB5 if TDs count for four points

Zamir White

Stat to know: In the Raiders' last four games of 2023, White hit per-game averages of 23.3 touches, 4.7 yards per rush and 15.2 PPR points per game. The Raiders went 3-1 with a pair of blowout wins. Since then the team moved on from veteran Josh Jacobs and added only Alexander Mattison and seventh-round pick Dylan Laube to its running back room. It suggests the coaches are cool with White as the lead back.

What to expect: White looked the part in the Raiders first preseason game and should be one of the league's bully backs. He might never be a passing-downs option for the Raiders -- all of the 11 third-down snaps he played in those final four games were either third and short or QB kneel-downs. But it's unlikely Mattison or anyone else currently on the Las Vegas roster will significantly displace White otherwise. As long as he stays in that role, he has the makings of a weekly Fantasy starter. The problem is, guys with very small sample sizes from the year prior don't always work out the year after, so there is some risk.

FantasyPros ADP: 64.8
I'd take him: around 50th overall in all formats

Terry McLaurin

Stat to know: Of the 252 targets McLaurin saw in 2022 and 2023, 52 of them (20.6%) were deemed uncatchable, a number that's low by comparison to many of his peers but still not great. New Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels had a 10.1% off-target rate in 2023 and 11.6% in 2022. Not only should McLaurin see cleaner throws, but he should continue to keep up the seven-plus target per game pace he's enjoyed each of the past four years.

What to expect: The Commanders have reportedly planned on being run-focused with the idea that their backs and defense can keep them in games, but it'll be tough to rein in a thrower as good as Daniels. Their passing volume will drop but they should be far more efficient with Daniels, who can throw as well on the run as he can from the pocket. McLaurin has been the Commanders' best receiver this summer according to all accounts, and because his career highs aren't too steep (87 catches, 1,191 yards, seven scores), there's a chance of a small career-year breakout in his sixth season.

FantasyPros ADP: 76.0
I'd take him: before 65th overall in all formats

Jake Ferguson

Stat to know: Assuming the Jason Witten/Dalton Schultz role in Dallas last year, Ferguson led all tight ends in red-zone targets with 23 and was second in end-zone targets with nine. He also had nine games with at least seven targets and averaged 12.6 PPR points in them. He also had two more games with six targets and he averaged 10.1 PPR points in those.

What to expect: More of the same, emphasis on more. Dallas' run game is among the most suspect in the league and its defense probably won't be as dominant as it was last year. Both open the door for the Cowboys to keep throwing, and while CeeDee Lamb will suck up all the targets once he ends his holdout, Ferguson should be next in line. That clearly goes double for the red zone. This is the tight end I gravitate toward when I whiff on the first four or five tight ends in my drafts.

FantasyPros ADP: 86.0
I'd take him: before 95th overall in all formats

Christian Watson

Stat to know: As a rookie, Watson averaged a touchdown every 5.9 catches. Last year, he averaged a touchdown every 5.6 catches. Know how? Because he was tied for ninth among receivers last year with 14 end-zone targets, an impressive number when you realize he played in just nine games.

What to expect: As long as Watson stays healthy ... wait, you stopped reading. Is it because I brought up his health? OK fine, that's obviously an issue, but the Packers have addressed that by having Watson see a specialist and the results have been good -- he's rarely missed a practice. In fact, he did a backflip on the 15th day of training camp, then he scored on Jaire Alexander on a ridiculous in-cut in one-on-one drills. Watson should play a lot as long as his body lets him, and the numbers should fall into place. Furthermore, his ADP is insanely low, making him a brilliant low-risk, high-reward pick.

FantasyPros ADP: 103.8
I'd take him: before 75th overall in all formats

Tyjae Spears

Stat to know: In nine games with nine or more touches as a rookie, Spears averaged 10.5 PPR points per game with five targets per game. Any increase in work this year will send his average to at least a low-end RB2 value. In a different offensive system, while splitting with Derrick Henry, Spears played just five fewer snaps than Henry and dominated passing-down situations while averaging 4.5 yards per rush behind a bad O-line.

What to expect: Spears is expected to split touches with Tony Pollard, potentially on a drive-by-drive basis, or maybe on a carry-by-carry basis like we saw in their first preseason game. The new Titans offense should be pass-friendlier than any iteration of the Titans offense over the past five years. That might sound bad to a physical rusher with stone hands but not to a juke master with great hands like Spears. The O-line already looks much better than it did last season, and any back with good zone-scheme traits (like Spears) should benefit. Spears could see close to 13 touches per game with the upside for more at the first sign of Pollard struggling.

CBS offseason ADP: 104.0
I'd take him: around 90th overall in all formats