This year more than ever, ADP appears to be fractured depending on which site you draft on. Some of that has to do with the standard scoring system. CBS probably has more non-PPR drafts than anyone else, even if a majority of our leagues reward at least 0.5 PPR. Yahoo's standard scoring system is 0.5 PPR and ESPN rewards a full point per reception in their standard leagues.
These discrepancies make this article even more impactful than it's been in the past. Below you'll find my five favorite values on each site, as well as a few honorable mentions. This is especially helpful for putting together your Draft Day plan because it's rare for people to reach more than a round or two above the ADP they see in the draft room.
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CBS Values
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I like A.J. Brown in the second round in all formats as one of a handful of wide receivers who could be the No.1 receiver in Fantasy without any help. Brown has been on the Tyreek Hill path as far as targets per game, and this year could be the year he makes the leap to the 140 range. Over his last 11 games of 2020, Brown averaged 7.5 targets and 80 yards per game. Any volume increase at all would make him worth consideration in Round 1.
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Early in draft season, concern over Tarik Cohen made David Montgomery a Round 4 pick. But it doesn't sound like Cohen is going to be ready for Week 1 and Damien Williams just doesn't scare me as much. Besides, all Matt Nagy has done this offseason is talk about Montgomery as a true workhorse back. He's always been elite at avoiding tacklers and that finally paid off in the final six games of 2020 when he was the best running back in football. You shouldn't expect that in 2021, but you should expect a borderline top-12 season worth a pick in Round 2.
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Robby Anderson makes this list every year, but it hurts my feelings a little bit that it's CBS pricing this year that has him at the end of Round 8. I would take Anderson two rounds earlier. He's been reunited with his former quarterback and he's playing for his former college coach. Oh yeah, and they just gave him a contract extension. All signs point to another big role for Anderson, who earned 136 targets in 2020.
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Antonio Brown actually led Tampa Bay in targets and receptions per game last year and he was a top-25 receiver after he joined the Bucs. So your guess is as good as mine why he's still available in Round 9 of any league. I'm not saying Brown is going to be Tampa's best receiver this year, but he's easily the best value, even if you take him a round or two higher than his ADP.
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I get it. Everyone is terrified of his quarterback situation. Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills probably won't be good. But Cooks is the clear No. 1 receiver (Chris Conley is the No. 2!) on a team we expect to lose 13-plus games. He has five 1,000 yard seasons in his past six and he's only missed three games since 2014. Cooks is a steal in Round 9, no matter who his quarterback is.
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Other good CBS values: Joe Mixon, Chris Carson, Dak Prescott, Mark Andrews, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Williams
ESPN Values
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I understand that ESPN is full PPR, but people are drafting running backs as if there are no designated running back spots. I'd take Gaskin two rounds higher than this and feel good about it. He averaged more than 100 yards per game in his final eight games of 2020 and is the clear pass-catching back in this offense. There should be no doubt Gaskin has top-12 PPR upside and that makes him worth a Round 4 pick.
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I understand Davis' ADP a little bit more because for much of the summer we expected Atlanta would bring in someone to challenge him. But it's August 27th and they didn't. Davis was a top-12 back on a per-game basis last year and that included two games Christian McCaffrey played. He may see a reduction in targets because of the offensive philosophy but he should have a better offensive line and the Falcons should be a better offense. I love Davis in Round 5.
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Mooney earned 98 targets as a rookie, which is impressive in its own right. I expect the quarterback play to be better in Chicago no matter who is under center. I see WR3 upside for Mooney if Robinson plays 17 games and think he could be much better than that given more opportunity. In full PPR, I'd take Mooney as early as Round 9.
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Terrace Marshall will play the big slot role in Carolina this year and could very well be the team's primary red zone threat in the passing game. He has been spectacular in the preseason and has a real shot at 100 targets even if D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson both stay healthy. Marshall is a Round 10 pick for me in this format, but it looks like he's there in the last round of most ESPN drafts.
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Speaking of the last round, I guess no one is drafting Giovani Bernard on ESPN. He's the clear passing downs back for a team that threw 117 passes to its running backs in 2020. The Buccaneers have raved about Bernard this summer, with Bruce Arians saying he's earned a 'big role'. You don't have to take him in Round 9, but that's what I think he's worth in this format.
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Other good ESPN values: Damien Harris, Jalen Hurts, Irv Smith, Mecole Hardman, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Yahoo values
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Jerry Jeudy is skyrocketing up draft boards, and I wonder if it's all happening a bit fast. You don't have to wonder that at Yahoo, where he's still a Round 9 pick. Jeudy is an elite route runner who struggled with inaccurate quarterback play and drops in 2020. You shouldn't care about the quarterback play, because Teddy Bridgewater is there now. You shouldn't care about the drops because they aren't predictive. Jeudy has top-12 upside as soon as this year. I would draft him in Round 6, but that may be too late on some sites. Not this one.
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Jamaal Williams is not particularly exciting, but I view him as a flex if D'Andre Swift stays healthy and an RB2 if Swift gets hurt. Considering Swift has battled a groin strain for much of the preseason, you should maybe pay a little more attention to the second part of that sentence. I view Williams as a Round 8 pick in the same range as James Conner and Kenyan Drake.
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Every once in a while an ADP jumps out at you that makes you triple check it. That's the next three ADPs we'll talk about. And as much as the Jaguars have struggled in the preseason, they've shown a clear interest in getting Shenault the ball, which makes sense because Shenault is their best receiver after the catch and they cannot protect Trevor Lawrence for more than two seconds right now. Shenault is my favorite Jacksonville receiver and I'd be fine drafting him in Round 8.
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Like Robby Anderson, Marvin Jones seems to always find his way into this article. But this is a little silly. Jones has consistently been a boom-or-bust No. 3 Fantasy WR, but this may be the least competition he's entered the season with for targets. The fact that D.J. Chark has missed so much of the preseason has really given Jones the chance to establish rapport with Trevor Lawrence as the team's No. 1 downfield receiver. I'd take Jones pretty shortly after Shenault was drafted, and I wouldn't mind taking both this late.
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This is kind of like a Gio situation. Yes, Meyers is a little bit boring, but the opportunity is too good to pass up this late in the draft. He was the team's No. 1 wide receiver and on pace for more than 1,000 yards last year after Julian Edelman went down. He's dominated targets in camp and would only benefit if Mac Jones takes over for Cam Newton mid-year. At this cost you shouldn't leave a Yahoo draft without him.
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Other good Yahoo values: Tyler Lockett, T.Y. Hilton, Mochael Thomas, DeVonta Smith, Kenyan Drake, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Noah Fant
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
