Picking at the end of the draft in any format, you need to answer one question first: How important is it to you to have a very good tight end? Travis Kelce and George Kittle have both been worth a pick in the early second round each of the past two seasons, so it's totally justifiable. But it's a decision you need to make before you make your second pick, because early Round 4 is probably too early for Mark Andrews and you aren't getting Zach Ertz at the end of Round 5.
For me, Kelce is well worth the early second round pick, which leads to the next question: In non-PPR, are you OK without taking a running back in the first three rounds? If Davante Adams is there at the end of Round 1, I am. Having Adams and Kelce should guarantee you elite production at two lineup spots, and there will be very few teams that have a better No. 2 receiver than JuJu Smith-Schuster. Just know that if you take this approach, you'll be swimming upstream at running back.
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my team from No. 11 overall:
- 1.11 Davante Adams, WR, GB
- 2.2 Travis Kelce, TE, KC
- 3.11 JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT
- 4.2 David Johnson, RB, HOU
- 5.11 Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
- 6.2 Kareem Hunt, RB, CLE
- 7.11 Brandin Cooks, WR, HOU
- 8.2 Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET
- 9.11 Preston Williams, WR, MIA
- 10.2 Chase Edmonds, RB, ARI
- 11.11 Laviska Shenault, WR, JAC
- 12.2 LeSean McCoy, RB, TB
- 13.11 Jonnu Smith, TE, TEN
- 14.2 Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
- 15.11 Devine Ozigbo, RB, JAC
Non-PPR Pick-by-Pick Guide: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
We talk about it often, but this team really makes it clear that if you draft an elite tight end and an elite quarterback, you're going to be thin at either running back or receiver. I may be thin at both. The thing is, if you have Dak Prescott and Travis Kelce giving you 40 Fantasy points per week, it's OK if your flex isn't very good. This is especially true if Adams and Smith-Schuster bounce back to their 2018 production.
There is not a No. 1 running back on this squad, but Johnson and Hunt should both be serviceable No. 2s. Johnson should be a serviceable flex early in the year, but I'm really going to need one of Williams, Edmonds, Shenault and McCoy to hit to feel good about that slot later in the year.
Finally, you'll notice I took a backup quarterback and tight end even though I have elite starters at both positions. In past years I never would have done this, but with the uncertainty surrounding Covid-19, I believe it's the prudent move if you have at least six bench spots.
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Hunt is a top-10 running back in the league based on talent and he's in what should be one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. The new regime in Cleveland has talked about splitting touches more evenly at running back than what we saw in the second half of 2019. Even if Nick Chubb plays 16 games, I'd expect Hunt to deliver on this cost. If Chubb misses time, then I have the No. 1 running back this roster is lacking.
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If Cooks returns to his pre-2019 form then I'm going to feel very good about this pick. But there are multiple ways I could regret it. Cooks' concussion problems from last year could reemerge and sideline him for a large portion of the season. Or Will Fuller could dominate targets and Cooks could be nothing more than a boom-or-bust flex. Or Cooks could be fine, but Darrell Henderson (who went two picks later) could win the starting job in Los Angeles. I'd probably like this roster better if I had Henderson as running back depth and Williams was my No. 3 receiver.
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Carlos Hyde was a 1,000-yard rusher in this offense last year. If Johnson can duplicate that and catch 30 passes, he could absolutely make this roster. But if he busts like he did in 2019, Hunt could be my only startable running back. Even with the big three of Adams, Kelce and Smith-Schuster that could sink this team.
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