People seem to be very skeptical about Zero-RB working as a strategy this season. While I mostly disagree with that skepticism, I do understand it. A strategy that has grown out of that skepticism is often called modified Zero-RB, where you take one running back early and then hammer the other positions. There's no better place to do that than the back of the draft. I did it from the 10th pick, and Ben Gretch did something similar from pick 12.
This strategy locks in a No. 1 running back, in this case Austin Ekeler, and then builds the rest of the core around elite pass catchers. I felt very fortunate to get my No. 1 tight end and two of my top 15 wide receivers after taking a running back in Round 1. The good fortune didn't stop there as you'll see below.
Here's my team from No. 10 overall
- 1.10 Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC
- 2.3 Travis Kelce, TE, KC
- 3.10 Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL
- 4.3 Robert Woods, WR, LAR
- 5.10 A.J. Green, WR, CIN
- 6.3 David Montgomery, RB, CHI
- 7.10 Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU
- 8.3 Jamison Crowder, WR, NYJ
- 9.10 Alexander Mattison, RB, MIN
- 10.3 Chase Edmonds, RB, ARI
- 11.10 Justin Jackson, RB, LAC
- 12.3 Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
- 13.10 Jerick McKinnon, RB, SF
- 14.3 Jonnu Smith, TE, TEN
- 15.10 Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
I was absolutely thrilled with my sixth, seventh, and eighth round picks. I'll get into Montgomery more below, but I prefer Watson to Kyler Murray who went six picks earlier, and you can make an argument he's in the same tier as Dak Prescott who went a round earlier. Yuur league may take quarterbacks earlier, but it's still a good idea to pounce on the last quarterback in this tier. They all have elite upside.
PPR Pick Series: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
Crowder isn't as exciting as Watson, but he may be an even better value. Last year he was a top 20 wide receiver with Sam Darnold, and the Jets have the most wide receiver targets to replace from 2019. Denzel Mims has had a slow start to camp and no one on the roster has the rapport Crowder does with Darnold. There's legitimate 150-target upside here in the eighth round.
After the eighth round, I did what you should do when you only have two running backs, I stockpiled upside. Alexander Mattison and Chase Edmonds may not be handcuffs for my backs, but they both have league-winning upside if the back in front of them gets hurt. I don't really view Justin Jackson as Austin Ekeler's handcuff, but I do expect him to beat out Joshua Kelley early in the year.
Montgomery is often the last 280-touch back available, but I was still surprised to find him in Round 6. Even with atrocious efficiency last year he was a borderline top 20 back. And I wouldn't hold that efficiency against him. Tarik Cohen had always been very efficient, but was even worse than Montgomery last year. I expect both backs to have some regression in terms of their per carry numbers and Montgomery has legitimate top-12 upside if the Bears offense can be average.
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To be clear, I don't think I will regret taking Ekeler in the first round of a PPR draft. But there are at least two clear paths where I could. The first is that either Jackson or Kelley steps into the full Melvin Gordon role and Ekeler's role shrinks because Tyrod Taylor doesn't throw near as much. The second is that Ekeler breaks down because he's not built to the 250 touches the Chargers give him. I just don't think Kelley or Jackson compare to Gordon as a running back and I can't discount Ekeler for potential injury risk when we're still drafting Dalvin Cook early in the first round. As for the targets, they'll come down, but Ekeler's increased role in the running game will make up for them.
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I expect Calvin Ridley to join Julio Jones as a top-10 Fantasy wide receiver here. I see 2019 Chris Godwin upside. If he comes close to that, then this team is a monster. But there is some risk that Hayden Hurst takes the full Austin Hooper role, Russell Gage takes the full Mohamed Sanu role, and Todd Gurley sees a bunch of targets in the backfield. If that happens, Ridley could be a low-end No. 2 receiver and that would probably mean that my receivers are just okay, and not great.
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So which Fantasy football busts should you completely avoid? And which running back going off the board early should you fade? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that called Baker Mayfield's disappointing season, and find out.
