As veterans report for NFL training camp Tuesday, it's time for our first look at the CBS Sports Average Draft Position data for the 2020 Fantasy Football season. This is a great tool to help you prepare for Draft Day in your leagues. You get to see where players are being selected in their respective rounds and in relation to other guys at the same position — plus, which position battles might provide the biggest return on your investment. It's a great gauge to see if you want someone — or if you want to avoid them. I use it all the time.
In reviewing ADP now, we get to see some of the better value picks at the start of training camp, before some of our biggest questions get answered. Let's take a look to see what we can learn.
Round 1 overview
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR
2. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
3. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL
4. Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN
5. Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
6. Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
7. Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
8. Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
9. Michael Thomas, WR, NO
10. Joe Mixon, RB, CIN
11. Josh Jacobs, RB, LV
12. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
In non-PPR leagues, the order of the first three players is fine, but I would take Kamara over Elliott at No. 3 overall in PPR. And we'll see what happens with Cook in regards to his contract status, but he should be No. 5 overall behind McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott and Kamara in all leagues.
The only way that I'm drafting Mahomes or Jackson in Round 1 is in a two-quarterback or Superflex league. Otherwise, this is too soon, even as good as Mahomes and Jackson should be this year. Remember, the best thing about both quarterbacks during their breakout campaigns the past two seasons was drafting them after Round 10 based on their ADP.
Thomas should be drafted slightly higher in PPR, and Davante Adams should be a first-round selection in all formats. Those are the only non-running backs I would draft in Round 1.
Also, I'm not drafting Henry in Round 1 in PPR, and I expect other running backs to creep into the first round, including Austin Ekeler, Miles Sanders and Kenyan Drake. Based on ADP, all are being selected in Round 2 as of now.
We debated a lot of this in a rankings episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast this week. Follow all our podcasts and subscribe here.
Quarterbacks
Good value
Kyler Murray (QB7) at 47.1 overall
Matthew Stafford (QB19) at 121.4 overall
Ben Roethlisberger (QB24) at 146.8 overall
Cam Newton (QB26) at 149.1 overall
Gardner Minshew (QB29) at 168.6 overall
Murray in Round 4 is fine, but you can argue that he should be the No. 3 quarterback this season behind Mahomes and Jackson. I have him at No. 6 behind Mahomes, Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson, but Murray has tremendous breakout potential in his sophomore campaign.
It's stealing if you can get Stafford this late. I consider him a top 12 quarterback this year, and he was the No. 2 quarterback on a per-game basis (25.8) last year based on the eight games he played before suffering a back injury.
Roethlisberger and Newton also have top-12 upside now that both are healthy, and hopefully Newton takes advantage of the chance to replace Tom Brady in New England. And while I consider Minshew just a No. 2 quarterback, this is amazing value to get him at that price. He could be one of the better surprise starting Fantasy options in his second year.
Bad value
Dak Prescott (QB3) at 26.4 overall
Josh Allen (QB5) at 38.1 overall
Aaron Rodgers (QB12) at 84.0 overall
Baker Mayfield (QB13) at 88.7 overall
Joe Burrow (QB14) at 95.3 overall
I like Prescott as a top-five quarterback this year, and I can get behind him as the No. 3 passer off the board. But his ADP puts him in Round 2 as the No. 23 player overall, which is way too soon.
I'm also excited about Allen as a breakout candidate, but he shouldn't be considered a top-five Fantasy quarterback, especially ahead of Wilson or Murray. And if you draft him in the first four rounds in a one-quarterback league, you're making a mistake.
Rodgers, Mayfield and Burrow should be quality No. 2 Fantasy quarterbacks this season, but they aren't top-15 options. I would rather have Stafford, Roethlisberger and Newton than all three. That might seem strange to say about Rodgers, but the Packers have capped his ceiling with a limited receiving corps and a seemingly strong preference to run the ball this year.
Running backs
Good value
Miles Sanders (RB11) at 18.9 overall
Kenyan Drake (RB12) at 20.9 overall
James Conner (RB23) at 46.3 overall
Jonathan Taylor (RB26) at 50.1 overall
Damien Williams (RB34) at 85.6 overall
Ronald Jones (RB37) at 86.7 overall
Tarik Cohen (RB41) at 100.2 overall
Marlon Mack (RB43) at 103.1 overall
Kerryon Johnson (RB45) at 110.6 overall
Darrell Henderson (RB51) at 134.0 overall
As stated above, Sanders and Drake should be considered first-round selections in all formats. Sanders will be the first workhorse running back for Doug Pederson in Philadelphia and has top-five upside, and Drake was awesome for the Cardinals to close last season.
Conner should be a bounce-back candidate as long as he can stay healthy, especially with Roethlisberger back on the field. I would draft him as early as Round 3 in PPR if there's a heavy emphasis on running backs in your draft.
I've downgraded Taylor and upgraded Mack with the lack of offseason work for the rookies prior to training camp, as well as having no preseason games, but I would still be excited to get Taylor in Round 5. Taylor should eventually be great, but Mack could be a solid option early in the year if the Colts continue to lean on him.
The same goes for other veteran running backs like Williams, Johnson and Henderson. These are excellent prices for their potential, especially Williams. He should be able to work well in tandem with Clyde Edwards-Helaire if both are healthy.
I'm excited about Jones, who should be the lead running back in Tampa Bay, and his value in Round 8 is fantastic. And Cohen should be drafted higher in PPR -- Round 6 or 7 is perfect -- but Round 9 in non-PPR leagues is great value given his role for the Bears.
Bad value
Derrick Henry (RB6) at 9.7 overall
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB14) at 22.7 overall
Le'Veon Bell (RB15) at 28.1 overall
Leonard Fournette (RB18) at 37.1 overall
Devin Singletary (RB20) at 41.8 overall
D'Andre Swift (RB21) at 42.8 overall
Cam Akers (RB24) at 49.7 overall
J.K. Dobbins (RB30) at 76.4 overall
Ke'Shawn Vaughn (RB31) at 79.4 overall
Sony Michel (RB33) at 84.1 overall
I'm fine with Henry at this price in non-PPR leagues, but I can't draft him in Round 1 in PPR. His rushing production should decline from last year (1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns), and his 18 receptions were a career high. He makes me nervous as well with over 400 total touches in 2019, including the playoffs.
Following the NFL Draft, I was excited to draft Edwards-Helaire, Swift and Akers, and I still expect them to have prominent roles in 2020. But the lack of offseason work and preseason games makes it difficult to draft them at their ADP, especially Edwards-Helaire in Round 2.
Dobbins as the No. 30 running back is too high if Mark Ingram is healthy, and Vaughn should not be drafted ahead of Jones. Vaughn also was placed on the reserve/Covid-19 list Monday, which could delay his development as he has to stay away from the team. He's expected to be fine, but this news further lowers his draft value.
Bell and Fournette should not be considered top-20 running backs this year. Both are expected to be on bad teams, and both could lose work to backups. For Bell, we could see Adam Gase give more work than needed to Frank Gore, who was with Gase in Miami. And Fournette could lose passing-downs work to Chris Thompson, who has a history with new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden from their days in Washington.
Singletary is OK as a low-end starting option, but I would not draft him as the No. 20 running back. He will share touches with rookie Zack Moss, and Allen's rushing prowess, especially at the goal line, should hurt Singletary as well.
As for Michel, he's someone I would only draft in Round 10 or later, even in non-PPR leagues. His foot injury remains a concern, and his limited role in the passing game because of James White hurts Michel in PPR.
Wide receivers
Good value
Kenny Golladay (WR14) at 48.1 overall
Calvin Ridley (WR15) at 50.1 overall
Allen Robinson (WR21) at 64.6 overall
D.J. Chark (WR30) at 88.1 overall
Will Fuller (WR37) at 104.6 overall
Marvin Jones (WR40) at 105.9 overall
Brandin Cooks (WR42) at 113.5 overall
Diontae Johnson (WR43) at 113.7 overall
Darius Slayton (WR44) at 114.9 overall
Jamison Crowder (WR51) at 130.8 overall
Golladay led all receivers in touchdowns last year with 11, and he did that with Stafford missing eight games. And Ridley has the chance to be a third-year breakout on a Falcons team that led the NFL in pass attempts in 2019 and should be pass-happy again this year. Both have top-10 upside and are worth drafting in Round 3.
The same goes for Robinson, especially in PPR. He should be among the league-leaders in receptions. I also expect Chark to have a third-year breakout campaign as the lead receiver in Jacksonville. I love targeting him in Round 4 in all formats.
Fuller and Cooks are amazing value picks at their ADP, and both have a big opportunity this season with DeAndre Hopkins gone. Fuller is one of my favorite breakout candidates if healthy following offseason hernia surgery, and I would draft him as a top-30 receiver this year.
I consider Jones and Crowder as sleeper candidates given their ADP, especially Crowder if he's going in Round 11. He should be a solid PPR receiver as long as he and Sam Darnold stay healthy.
And Johnson and Slayton are two breakout candidates this season. Johnson has the chance for a big sophomore year with Roethlisberger healthy, and Slayton has the highest ceiling of all the Giants receivers. However, another great value pick based on ADP is Sterling Shepard, who is WR 49 at 124.7 overall. I like Shepard better than Slayton in PPR.
Bad value
Cooper Kupp (WR7) at 37.0 overall
Amari Cooper (WR10) at 45.1 overall
Odell Beckham (WR11) at 45.8 overall
Keenan Allen (WR17) at 53.1 overall
A.J. Green (WR24) at 66.8 overall
Deebo Samuel (WR33) at 96.8 overall
Jerry Jeudy (WR34) at 98.5 overall
CeeDee Lamb (WR35) at 98.7 overall
Henry Ruggs III (WR38) at 104.9 overall
Michael Pittman (WR41) at 113.2 overall
Kupp should be a solid Fantasy receiver this year, and I would consider him in Round 3 in all leagues. But I don't consider him the No. 7 receiver off the board, and I like Robert Woods better than Kupp in PPR.
I'm out on Cooper and Lamb at their ADP, especially Cooper as the No. 10 receiver. Lamb's presence, as well as what Michael Gallup, Elliott and Blake Jarwin do in the passing game, should hurt Cooper this season.
It feels like Beckham, Allen and Green are being drafted this high based on past performances, and I don't like the value for any of these guys. Beckham was bad last year in Cleveland, and the Browns should be a run-first team under Kevin Stefanski. Allen loses value with Philip Rivers gone for the Chargers. And Green's injury concerns, as well as his rapport with a rookie in Burrow, could be troublesome.
I'm also concerned with Samuel as the No. 33 receiver off the board given the foot injury he suffered in June, which could be a problem early in the season. And I'm not drafting any of these rookies at their ADP, especially Pittman, who could be the No. 4 receiver for the Colts behind T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell and Zach Pascal.
Tight ends
Good value
Hayden Hurst (TE12) at 107.8 overall
Jonnu Smith (TE15) at 129.6 overall
Blake Jarwin (TE23) at 185.7 overall
I like Hurst as a top 10 tight end this year with his move to Atlanta, and he is a breakout candidate as the replacement for Austin Hooper. I would love to draft him in Round 9.
Smith has a big opportunity this season with Delanie Walker gone, and the Titans will hopefully feature him as a go-to option for Ryan Tannehill. He could be No. 2 on the team in targets behind standout sophomore A.J. Brown.
Jarwin has the chance for a big year with Jason Witten gone, as well as Randall Cobb no longer on the roster. There are 166 targets to replace, and most should go to Jarwin and Lamb. Factor in the 41 targets Jarwin had last year, and he could have 90-plus targets in 2020.
Bad value
Rob Gronkowski (TE8) at 89.6 overall
Austin Hooper (TE10) at 94.0 overall
Jared Cook (TE11) at 100.2 overall
I'm thrilled Gronkowski is back in the NFL and with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay, but I don't want to draft him as the No. 8 tight end. And I also don't want to draft him in Round 8.
There's no chance I'm drafting Hooper as a top 10 tight end this year, and I'm worried about his targets coming down in Cleveland. The Falcons liked to air the ball out, and I don't expect the same thing to happen with the Browns.
Cook loses value this season with Emmanuel Sanders on the Saints, and I would only draft him as a No. 2 tight end in all leagues. Some other tight ends I would draft ahead of Cook include Hurst, Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki and Smith.
