Our lead Fantasy editor Chris Towers has been posing the Fantasy team some great questions over the past couple weeks that have allowed us to have some cool roundtable discussions. One of the questions he asked Thursday as part of our quarterback preview was this:
"Which young QB has the best chance to go all Patrick Mahomes on us?"
My immediate inclination was, "no one." Because of course it was. Mahomes hit the much-discussed 5,000 (yards) and 50 (touchdowns) benchmarks last year, becoming just the second quarterback to do both in the same season. Of course we shouldn't expect that again the very next season. And to the extent it's possible, Mahomes himself would be the only sane pick to do it.
But the question is a good one, because it underscores a simple and very true reality that can be forgotten by the time we reach August and narratives have been built and we've all been breaking down the most likely outcomes for every team throughout the offseason: Fantasy leagues are won by outlier performances.
Put differently, what chances would we have put on Mahomes doing that last season?
Considering he was the 15th quarterback off the board in an average Fantasy draft — five spots behind Matthew Stafford — I can comfortably say the answer is very small. Even if you're reading this and thinking, "Well, I was really high on Mahomes and took him in a bunch of leagues," and you won those leagues, and you felt really good about that call all last year… I can almost guarantee you're overstating how confident you were he had anything close to the ceiling he showed us last year in his range of outcomes. Because that's just how our brains work. (In this case, the bias we're susceptible to is hindsight bias, which per Wikipedia is also known as the "knew-it-all-along phenomenon").
But just because few could have seen the true extent of Mahomes' impending dominance does not mean there's a lesson there. In fact, I would argue the two players I answered in response to Chris's question — Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray — are being pushed up draft boards a bit this year because of another cognitive behavior, recency bias toward what Mahomes did in 2018.
But if Mayfield and Murray aren't great draft values, that doesn't necessarily mean you can't draft them. Because, again, leagues are won by outlier performances. That's a simple application, but one that is easily missed.
Let's use these two as examples to talk more about outlier potential. None of the things I'm about to mention are what I would call "likely," so bear that in mind. This is an exercise in stretching the limits of the theoretical, because NFL seasons are notoriously unpredictable.
The first thing that would have to happen for Murray to hit a huge Fantasy ceiling is this offense would have to live up to the hype from a scheme perspective. Kliff Kingsbury's offense, largely an unknown but not without clues from his college days, would have to be wide open and it would have to be fast. We're talking lead-the-league-in-plays fast.
Even with that, Murray doesn't have Mahomes-like passing upside, but his skill set could translate to a monster Fantasy total if he's immediately a revelation as both a passer and a runner. On the ground, that would look something like a cross between what Lamar Jackson did last year and what Cam Newton did in his rookie season.
In Jackson's seven regular season starts, he averaged 17 rush attempts per game. Only three running backs averaged more last year! Prior to last season, Tim Tebow's 9.4 rush attempts per game were the most by a quarterback in a season since 2000. Jackson blew that away.
Murray shouldn't be expected to come close to Jackson's number, but when he spoke to ESPN's Matthew Berry in May, Murray told him he'd be "way over" the 100 rushing attempts ESPN had him projected for. Maybe that's just player optimism, or maybe he approaches 10 rushes per game in a high-paced offense.
I also mentioned Newton because in his rookie season he rushed for 14 touchdowns. That's a ton, but Jackson ran for five last year. Dak Prescott has started his career with three straight seasons of six. Russell Wilson had four in his rookie season. Deshaun Watson has seven in 23 career games. There's some evidence that dual-threat quarterbacks can bring that talent to the NFL level right away. Murray's final college season featured 1,001 rushing yards and 12 rushing scores. If he rushes 150 times this year, something like an 800-9 rushing line would be within reach.
On top of that, Murray would also have to be a revelation as a passer in a way Jackson wasn't, and that's a little more difficult to project. Mayfield, who I'll discuss more in a minute, had what most consider a successful first season, and even he wasn't a dominant Fantasy force as a passer. This is where the offense comes into play even more, because Murray would need to throw a lot on top of a lot of rush attempts, and he'd also have to be very efficient. Things would have to click right away.
Let's talk Baker.
Mayfield set passing efficiency records in college. By some metrics, he held the two most efficient passing seasons in Division I history by the time he graduated. Interestingly, both Murray and Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa had comparable 2018 seasons, something that points to the evolution of the game and also has led detractors to point to Oklahoma's system as a reason for both Mayfield's and Murray's successes.
But Mayfield was also very efficient as a rookie last year. Of 170 player seasons since the merger where a rookie quarterback threw at least 100 passes, Mayfield's 2018 adjusted yards per attempt ranks 11th.
While Mayfield looks very good, it's the new additions who create the ceiling. Odell Beckham is the obvious one, and with the numbers he's already put up, there's a possibility we'll look back and believe Eli Manning held back a player who became the best at his position in his generation.
Jarvis Landry shifting into a more natural role could improve his efficiency, while David Njoku could take a step forward. Mayfield certainly has weapons.
But another addition, new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is also key. Monken's Tampa Bay offenses led the NFL in air yards each of the past two seasons, and finished with nearly 20% more over that span than any other team. The next highest team was Cleveland, and new coach Freddie Kitchens comes from the Bruce Arians line -- Arians' Cardinals led the league in air yards in 2016, and were second to the Bucs in his and Kitchens' last season there, 2017 — and was on the Browns staff that employed a vertical passing game last season.
Both Kitchens and Monken seem to favor a very vertical passing game, something that could give Mayfield the opportunity, if his prior efficiency shines through and perhaps even improves with the addition of Beckham, to rack up gaudy passing statistics.
Final Thoughts
There are of course issues with both of these pie-in-the-sky exercises.
For Murray, he could run far less than he thought he would. The offense could be more moderately paced, or be quickly figured out by defensive coordinators and thought of as a gimmick. Murray's height, his offensive line, or just his ability as a passer could get in the way of big passing numbers right out of the gate. Any one of those things would limit his potential ceiling.
For Mayfield, an improved team situation could mean not much of a bump in passing volume. His efficiency could just be good, not great. Or even if it is great, since he doesn't have anything resembling Murray's rushing upside, it might not be elite.
The likelihood either of these quarterbacks hits these outcomes is extremely small. And as I noted in the intro, I think it's possible they are being overdrafted a bit as Fantasy players chase upside at a position where we just saw an otherworldly breakout performance last season.
I'm not trying to convince you to reach for Mayfield or Murray, though I do like both as 2019 options. What I'm trying to convince you is that my initial reaction — "no one" to Chris' question of "Which young QB has the best chance to go all Patrick Mahomes on us?" — is exactly the wrong way to play Fantasy Football.
Outlier performances win Fantasy leagues. Not just at quarterback, at all positions. Don't get too stuck in what everyone thinks is going to happen this season to forget that.
