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Editor's note: Our latest PPR pick-by-pick series was done in August prior to the third preseason game and is a three-man draft with Heath Cummings, Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard, with each one selecting four teams in this 12-team mock. The goal of this series is to show you positions to draft in these spots as much as the players selected, so take that into account when viewing each team.
Building a team from every draft slot in PPR and non-PPR
One of the most difficult things to predict in Fantasy Football also happens to be one of the most important -- touchdowns. It's not that we can't predict anything about touchdowns, it's just they're the statistic most prone to wild swings or horrific outliers. Multiple examples can be found on my team drafting from the 11th spot.
Julio Jones scoring three times in 2017 is the obvious example. But how about Lamar Miller rushing for three touchdowns on 238 carries just two years after scoring eight times on 194 carries? Or Demaryius Thomas scoring 10-plus touchdowns three years in a row and following that up by scoring no more than six from 2015-2017? Well, that one makes a little more sense; just look at his quarterbacks. Thomas is one of my favorite bounceback candidates, and he's on a team full of them.
Here's my team from No. 11 overall:
- 1.11 Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN
- 2.2 Julio Jones, WR, ATL
- 3.11 Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN
- 4.2 Lamar Miller, RB, MIA
- 5.11 Brandin Cooks, WR, LAR
- 6.2 Greg Olsen, TE, CAR
- 7.11 Devontae Booker, RB, DEN
- 8.2 Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
- 9.11 Matt Breida, RB, SF
- 10.2 Rob Kelley, RB, WAS
- 11.11 D'Onta Foreman, RB, HOU
- 12.2 Tyrell Williams, WR, LAC
- 13.11 Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN
- 14.2 Saints DST
After five rounds I felt really good about my receivers with Jones, Thomas and Cooks, so I focused on the other positions. I'm betting on Olsen bouncing back from his injury-riddled 2017 and once again being a top five tight end. While it is more crowded in Carolina, I'd still expect Olsen is towards the very top of the pecking order for Cam Newton. I also took a veteran at quarterback in Roethlisberger.
I understand injuries and road games have derailed Roethlisberger in the past in Fantasy, but he has arguably the best weapons in the NFL, and he's virtually assured a high-volume of pass attempts. Even if he misses a game or two due to injury, I'll take a top-five quarterback on a per-game basis and stream the weeks he's out. Floor is highly overrated at quarterback this year with up to 21 startable options in 12-team leagues.
Finally, I built some depth at running back with Breida, Kelley and Foreman late in the draft. Breida is especially interesting to me assuming his shoulder is fine by Week 1. He was very involved last year even with Carlos Hyde on the team, and Hyde is a better runner than Jerick McKinnon. There's a chance Breida leads the team in rushing touchdowns in 2018.
Favorite pick: Julio Jones
So I referenced the touchdowns, but let's talk about everything else for a minute. Jones has at least 1,400 receiving yards for each of the past four seasons. He's averaged 103 receptions per year over that stretch while still averaging more than 15 yards per reception. It's amazing how good he's been. Now, back to the touchdowns. It's true that he hasn't had a year with double-digit scores since 2012. It's also true that the three years prior to 2017 he was averaging seven per season. That should be minimum expectation in 2018, and that makes him worthy of a first-round pick.
Pick I might regret: Devontae Booker
Let's be clear, I almost hope I regret this pick. I believe Royce Freeman should be the man in Denver starting Week 1. But I don't have any pull in Denver, and the people who do are sure acting like this is going to be a committee approach. And it may just be a committee approach that has the backs splitting carries and Booker getting most of the third-down work. Let's just all hope I'm regretting this pick. But for now, don't forget about Booker on Draft Day.
Player who could make or break my team: Brandin Cooks
I already posted a long Twitter thread on my lack of certainty surrounding Brandin Cooks. The gist of it? The Rams didn't thrown the ball very much at all last year and when they did they spread it around to a variety of players. But Cooks is more talented than any receiver than they had and has been a top-12 receiver in this format for three straight years. If he sees more targets than I expect and continues that streak, I'm going to have an elite receiving corps with a top-10 running back, and that's hard to do. If he gets the Sammy Watkins treatment, I'm going to have a wasted fifth-round pick.
