carlos-rodon.jpg

Catch him on the right day, or even in the right inning, and it still looks like Carlos Rodon. The fastball velocity is still there, sitting within a couple-tenths of 1 mph from his heyday in San Francisco. And the slider still mostly looks like the same wipeout pitch he nearly rode to a Cy Young award.

But, for whatever reason, it just isn't the same guy. The fastball might come in as hard as it used to, but it's also going out significantly harder than it once did, as hitters just don't appear to be struggling with that pitch the way they once did – the Blue Jays put seven of them in play Thursday night, with an average exit velocity of 100.6 mph. 

Yeah, that's as bad as it sounds, and that's how you give up eight runs in the first two innings of your start. And it's now pushed Rodon's ERA up to 4.42 for the season, with an xERA now approaching five. He might superficially look like the guy he once did, but nothing in the statistical profile does. And that's exactly what happened last year. 

I was willing to give Rodon the benefit of the doubt for last season, given how much he still mostly looked like himself. Oh, yeah, it was the spring back injury that just never got right and left him at less than 100% despite the velocity. Now, with a full, healthy offseason and no injuries to speak of so far this season? Yeah, I'm a lot less inclined to write it off. 

So, I don't really know what conclusion to draw here, other than the same one I've drawn with Kevin Gausman: While he's not just completely finished as a useful Fantasy option, it may just not make sense to put the expectations of an ace on him anymore. There will still be very good starts ahead, but Rodon just hasn't shown nearly the kind of consistency you want from a high-end pitcher. 

Maybe he'll prove me wrong in that regard – for a stretch in May, it sure looked like he was. But his recent regression has me back on the pessimistic side of things, and it's going to take a lot to talk me back into him. Rodon is still a top-40 pitcher in my rankings, but no longer in the ace discussion. 

We'll talk a bit more about some other one-time aces who are pitching this weekend who I have serious concerns about as well, in my usual weekend pitching preview. Let's get to it: 

Give us a reason to be optimistic 

Gerrit Cole, Yankees @TOR, Sunday – Oh boy. Cole's return from a nerve issue in his elbow has not gone according to plan, with his most recent start being an outright disaster, as he walked four, surrendered four homers, and didn't record a single strikeout, the first time in Yankees history a pitcher has hit those ignominious milestones in a start. Cole's velocity was way down in the outing, and though he said that was intentional after a long first inning, that doesn't really make me feel any better about it, given the results. Cole has more than earned the benefit of the doubt in the long run, but I'm going to need to see signs of him looking like himself before I can suggest starting him next week. 

Pablo Lopez, Twins @SEA, Saturday – If one vintage, bounce-back start against a beatable opponent is good, two in a row would be even better. The reaction to Lopez's 14-strikeout showing against the A's, at least from the skeptics, was to dismiss it as, "It's just the A's." Nevermind that no other starting pitcher had a 10-strikeout performance against them before Lopez, the haters are gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate, as the lady says. So, he'll just have to go out and do it again, I guess. I still think Lopez is basically an ace for Fantasy, but his best pitches haven't been quite as effective as they were last season on the whole, so we'd love to see another vintage showing here. 

Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays vs. NYY, Friday – Kikuchi settled in as a high-3.00s ERA pitcher last season, and he sits at 4.00 at roughly the midway point, so maybe this is just who he is. If so, that's not necessarily a bad thing, given Kikuchi's strikeout upside, though it would be a disappointment given the upside he has shown in stretches. Kikuchi's in a weird spot, where his reworked changeup has been a much more effective pitch than last season, but pretty much everything else in his arsenal has taken a step back. I'm not sure we can assume those things are related, and if you want to go with the half-full approach, if he rediscovers his slider and curveball, the change might give him an even better overall arsenal. I'd like to see some signs of that. 

Nick Pivetta, Red Sox vs. SD, Friday – I view Pivetta and Kikuchi very similarly, though I'll grant there were definitely some Fantasy analysts who viewed Pivetta as the higher-upside option. I think it's harder to make that case now, with Pivetta's sweeper not looking nearly as effective now that he's throwing it 22% of the time – his whiff rate with that pitch has dropped from 44% to 35% since last season. That's still a good pitch, but not an overwhelmingly dominant one, though the regression of his cutter is arguably an even bigger problem right now. All in all, it's starting to look like Pivetta's second-half dominance last season was a pretty significant outlier, and he's back to being more or less the same frustrating pitcher he was before that. Maybe there's a path to unlocking that upside again, but he needs to start showing it more consistently.

Bryce Miller, Mariners vs. MIN, Saturday – Early in the season, it looked like Miller might have been taking a step forward, but as the starts have gone on, he looks a lot like the guy he was last season. Less four-seamer reliant, but still lacking much in the way of reliable secondaries he can lean on for whiffs if the fastball isn't overpowering. That fastball is a legitimately great pitch, so he's going to keep having impressive starts when it's on, and we're going to keep chasing him in the hopes he can develop another weapon or two, but I'll be honest, I almost included him in the "Still worth rostering?" section, because we're going on two months of a 5.05 ERA. He's gotta start showing more than flashes. 

Still worth rostering?

Zach Eflin, Rays vs. WAS, Friday (91%) – I'm usually the analyst who is skeptical of the one-season outlier performances, so I'm kind of kicking myself for how fully I bought into Eflin this year. In some ways, he isn't really that different of a pitcher than last year – he remains a control standout who generates tons of weak contact, he just isn't getting strikeouts like he did last season, and I think it mostly comes down to the fact that he's throwing way too many pitches in the strike zone. Some pitchers can generate whiffs on pitches in the zone, but Eflin has never really been one of those. He needs to do a better job working on the edges of the strike zone, which will help him generate more early-count whiffs and give him more opportunities to put hitters away with his curveball. The blueprint is there, he just has to follow it. Easier said from my comfy computer chair than done on the mound, of course. 

Cade Povich, Orioles vs. TEX, Saturday (32%) – On the whole, Povich has had decent results, but the approach has left much to be desired. His issue in the minors when things weren't going well mostly came down to an inability to generate chases, and that's continued here, with a paltry 21.7% chase rate. That means that, even though he throws 52.4% of his pitches in the strike zone – a mark that would rank in the 75th percentile among qualifying starters – walks are still going to be an issue. That's the difference between command and control right there. The thing about Povich is, he only needs to be decent to matter for Fantasy with the Orioles lineup and ballpark on his side, but I'd like to see more reason to believe he can clear that low bar. 

Time to buy in? 

Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves vs. PIT, Sunday (61%) – Schwellenbach hasn't been great in his first five starts, sporting a 5.40 ERA, but I actually think it's been a pretty promising showing despite that. His xERA is just 3.70, and it looks like he might have multiple viable swing-and-miss secondaries that he can throw in pretty much any count. The Braves haven't been as dominant as expected, and with Ronald Acuna and Michael Harris both on the IL (though Harris should return eventually), they aren't likely to be the 100-win juggernaut we expected. That being said, Schwellenbach looks like a pretty talented young pitcher who still has a pretty good situation backing him up, so a good start here could make him a must-add option on the wire. 

Landon Knack, Dodgers @SF, Friday (15%) – Knack hasn't shown a ton of upside so far in the majors, looking more like a control specialist without much strikeout upside. But in the minors, he did strike out 27.6% of opposing hitters, so I don't want to write him off entirely. As with a few other players mentioned here, the team he plays for could help make him a viable Fantasy option even if he's a relatively middling pitcher overall. But if he can start to tap into some more strikeout upside here, he could pretty quickly emerge as a must-add Fantasy asset. 

Tobias Myers, Brewers vs. CHC, Saturday (65%) – I know the results (3.12 ERA) have mostly been very good for Myers so far, but I just have trouble getting excited about his profile. He showed some strikeout upside in the minors, with a 26.1% strikeout rate between Double-A and Triple-A, but that came along with a 5.02 ERA while he was never particularly young for those levels. That makes it hard to buy in even if his ERA estimators weren't all significantly worse than his actual ERA. I'd be happy if he proved me wrong here, but I just don't see much reason to keep chasing the shiny ERA right now.