Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2024-25: Optimal sleepers, breakouts and busts from proven NBA simulation

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Fantasy basketball owners tend to shy away from certain players every year, regardless of their accomplishments on the court the previous season. Celtics small forward Jaylen Brown is one of those players, despite winning both the Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the NBA Finals MVP awards last season. Brown averaged 23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game while playing in 70 games. He is going off the board behind players like Paolo Banchero and Scottie Barnes in average 2024-25 Fantasy basketball drafts, so is he one of the 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers you should target in last-minute drafts before the season opens Tuesday night?

Banchero led the Magic in points (22.6), rebounds (6.9) and assists (5.4) per game last season after finishing as one of the Fantasy basketball breakouts during his rookie campaign in 2022. However, he shot just 45% from the floor and 33% from 3-point range, which are areas he needs to improve in to avoid becoming a Fantasy basketball bust. Before making any 2024-25 Fantasy basketball picks, be sure to check out the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proven model simulates each season 10,0000 times. This model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. These cheat sheets and rankings, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day. Any time an injury occurs or there's a change on a roster, the team at SportsLine updates its cheat sheets.

Last year the model called Thunder G/F Josh Giddey a bust, predicting that he would never live up to his sixth-round ADP. The result: Giddey had his minutes reduced significantly with Oklahoma City's roster improving and saw corresponding drops in points (16.6 to 12.3), rebounds (7.9 to 6.4) assists (6.2 to 4.8) and steals (0.8 to 0.6). The Thunder ultimately decided to trade him to the Bulls for Alex Caruso this offseason and Fantasy basketball managers who avoided the headache last season were better off for it.

The model also nailed DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper in 2021-22 before he averaged a career-best 27.9 points per game and called Paolo Banchero's and Victor Wembanyama's breakout seasons before they went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors the last two seasons. Anyone who followed the model's Fantasy basketball advice on them was well on their way to making a deep postseason run.

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NBA season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy basketball rankings 2024-25, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see these 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers

One of the top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers the model is predicting: Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant. You wouldn't normally think of a two-time All-Star like Morant as a sleeper, but he's fallen a bit off the radar due to a pair of suspensions, plus an injury, over the last two years. Morant has played in just 17 of a possible 102 regular-season games for Memphis since early March of 2023.

Over his nine games last year, he was still elite, averaging 25.1 points, 8.1 assists and 5.6 rebounds. It was a small sample size, but Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and LeBron James were the only other players to average at least 25-8-5 in the 2023-24 NBA season. Morant is fully recovered from shoulder surgery, well-rested, and he says he's in a good place mentally, which could be a scary sight for the rest of the league as he embarks on a revenge tour. The 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings slot Morant as a top-three Fantasy point guard, even putting him ahead of Steph Curry. See more Fantasy basketball sleepers 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts

One of the 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts the model has identified: Spurs guard Stephon Castle. The teenager from UConn averaged 11.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game during the Huskies' national title run last season, and the Spurs snagged him with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Castle brings an all-around game to San Antonio, using his speed and physicality to attack the rim on offense while displaying passing vision and elite defense.

He joins a roster that continues to build around Victor Wembanyama, who desperately needs strong guard play to unlock his full potential. Castle played exclusively on the wing last season, and he has an opportunity to prove he can be the lead guard of the future in San Antonio. His shooting numbers have been his Achilles' heel, but an improvement in that category gives him an even higher ceiling than he already has. The model has identified Castle as a Fantasy basketball breakout, ranking him ahead of established guards like Alex Caruso, Jordan Clarkson and Lonzo Ball. Identify other Fantasy basketball breakouts 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts

As for players to avoid, the model lists Lakers guard Austin Reaves as one of its top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts. Reaves had a breakout season in 2022-23, averaging 13.0 points, 3.4 assists and 3.0 rebounds across 64 games to earn a four-year contract extension. He was able to build on that momentum last season, posting 15.9 points, 5.5 assists and 4.3 rebounds in 32.1 minutes per game.

However, he has been dealing with ankle soreness this preseason and will continue to compete with LeBron James and Anthony Davis for touches on the offensive end. He could see some of his minutes taken away by third-year shooting guard Max Christie and rookie wing Dalton Knecht, who was a first-round draft pick. Additionally, Reaves does not provide much Fantasy value in terms of blocks and steals, which pushes his draft stock down and makes him a Fantasy basketball bust in the model's rankings. Avoid these 2024 Fantasy basketball busts as well.

How to find proven 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings

SportsLine is also has a shocking prediction for one of the league's biggest names and advises avoiding him in 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts at his current ADP. This bust fails to live up to his first-round ADP, ranking behind players available in the third round or later like Damian Lillard and James Harden. You can only see who it is, and the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2024-25 Fantasy basketball sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which huge name should you avoid? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024-25 Fantasy basketball cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that's nailed its Fantasy basketball picks, and find out.