Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2024-25: Top sleepers, breakouts and busts by advanced NBA simulation

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Any 2024 Fantasy basketball strategy has to take more than just expected production into account, and it namely has to consider durability as well. Ja Morant, Joel Embiid and Trae Young all missed at least 25 games last year, while Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Zion Williamson were all sidelined in the playoffs. The old adage of your best ability being your availability is one to definitely keep in mind when going on the clock in your 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts.

That makes players like Mikal Bridges and Domantas Sabonis extra valuable as Fantasy basketball picks as they were among the dozen or so who played every game last year. Injuries and absences are always tough to predict, so utilizing a set of Fantasy basketball 2024 rankings that takes into account how teams load manage their players is an invaluable resource. Before making any 2024-25 Fantasy basketball picks, be sure to check out the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proven model simulates each season 10,0000 times. This model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. These cheat sheets and rankings, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day. Any time an injury occurs or there's a change on a roster, the team at SportsLine updates its cheat sheets.

Last year the model called Thunder G/F Josh Giddey a bust, predicting that he would never live up to his sixth-round ADP. The result: Giddey had his minutes reduced significantly with Oklahoma City's roster improving and saw corresponding drops in points (16.6 to 12.3), rebounds (7.9 to 6.4) assists (6.2 to 4.8) and steals (0.8 to 0.6). The Thunder ultimately decided to trade him to the Bulls for Alex Caruso this offseason and Fantasy basketball managers who avoided the headache last season were better off for it.

The model also nailed DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper in 2021-22 before he averaged a career-best 27.9 points per game and called Paolo Banchero's and Victor Wembanyama's breakout seasons before they went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors the last two seasons. Anyone who followed the model's Fantasy basketball advice on them was well on their way to making a deep postseason run.

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NBA season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy basketball rankings 2024-25, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see these 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers

One of the top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers the model is predicting: Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant. You wouldn't normally think of a two-time All-Star like Morant as a sleeper, but he's fallen a bit off the radar due to a pair of suspensions, plus an injury, over the last two years. Morant has played in just 17 of a possible 102 regular-season games for Memphis since early March of 2023.

Over his nine games last year, he was still elite, averaging 25.1 points, 8.1 assists and 5.6 rebounds. It was a small sample size, but Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and LeBron James were the only other players to average at least 25-8-5 in the 2023-24 NBA season. Morant is fully recovered from shoulder surgery, well-rested, and he says he's in a good place mentally, which could be a scary sight for the rest of the league as he embarks on a revenge tour. The 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings slot Morant as a top-three Fantasy point guard, even putting him ahead of Steph Curry. See more Fantasy basketball sleepers 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts

One of the 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts the model has identified: Wizards PF/C Alex Sarr. The 19-year-old Frenchman is 7-feet tall with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and he was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Sarr moved to the United States in 2021 to play for Overtime Elite and then got significant professional experience playing for Perth in Australia last season.

Sarr averaged 9.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in around 17 minutes per game for Perth and he's an extremely high-upside prospect for the Wizards. Initially, expect Sarr to use his length and athleticism to affect the game as a stretch big and a rim protector. The model projects Sarr as a top-45 forward in his rookie season despite the fact that he's been the 64th forward off the board on average. Identify other Fantasy basketball breakouts 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts

As for players to avoid, the model lists Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen as one of its top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts. After a breakout 2022-23 season in which he made his first All-Star Game as was named Most Improved Player, Markkanen regressed in the 2023-24 season. His FG%, PPG and RPG all decreased and he dealt with three separate injuries that caused him to miss one-third of the season. His name was then floated in trade rumors in the offseason before signing a five-year extension with Utah.

However, that doesn't preclude the Finn from possibly being moved, and Utah has used back-to-back top-10 draft picks on fellow forwards. The team also still has John Collins and Walker Kessler in the frontcourt, so if Markkanen's numbers continue to decline, then the Jazz have other options to turn to. While his 2024 Fantasy basketball ADP has him as the second SF being drafted on average, the model isn't as high on Markkanen and slots him outside the top eight players at the position. Avoid these 2024 Fantasy basketball busts as well.

How to find proven 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings

SportsLine is also has a shocking prediction for one of the league's biggest names and advises avoiding him in 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts at his current ADP. This bust fails to live up to his first-round ADP, ranking behind players available in the third round or later like Damian Lillard and James Harden. You can only see who it is, and the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2024-25 Fantasy basketball sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which huge name should you avoid? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024-25 Fantasy basketball cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that's nailed its Fantasy basketball picks, and find out.