Fantasy Baseball Trade Values: Can Bryce Elder keep his incredible start up or should we sell high?

The most obvious bit of advice a Fantasy Baseball analyst can give you right now is, "Sell high on Bryce Elder." It's such an obvious bit of advice at this point that it might not even be particularly useful – trading is all about perceived value, and if everyone perceives Elders as a sell-high candidate, you aren't going to be able to get much for him.

Is the knee-jerk reaction to writing Elder off fair? Well, pretty much every pitching metric we tend to use to try to predict future performance at least agrees that he's playing over his head:

ERA: 1.92
xERA: 4.15
FIP: 3.42
xFIP: 3.65
SIERA: 3.86

It shouldn't exactly be a surprise that a pitcher with a sub-2.00 ERA isn't going to keep that up – it's happened just 10 times over the past decade by an ERA title qualifier, and three of those came in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. As a general rule, pitchers with an ERA below 2.00 at any given point are going to perform worse, usually significantly worse, in the future.

But that doesn't necessarily mean you need to abandon ship and get whatever you can for Elder, right? I mean, Martin Perez was in a similar spot to Elder at this point last season, sporting a 1.56 ERA through his first 11 starts, and he still had a 3.61 ERA the rest of the way. That's a perfectly useful Fantasy option, and most of those predictive metrics suggest he could be in that range moving forward.

Elder, like Perez, is a groundball pitcher (57.5%) with pretty good control (7.2% walk rate) and a below-average strikeout rate (21.1%). That's not a combination that typically creates ace outcomes – especially when you aren't an outlier groundball pitcher like Framber Valdez – but you can be an effective pitcher with that combination. It just typically means your margin for error is somewhat narrow, as Perez's struggles to begin the 2023 season highlight.

And Elder does have some skills that could make this at least somewhat sustainable. In addition to being a groundball pitcher, he has generated a 51.6% pull rate on his batted balls, the highest mark in the league so far. That's not a great thing when you give up a lot of fly balls, as someone like Andrew Heaney or Freddy Peralta currently are, because the ball doesn't have to travel as far to go out down the line. However, it's not a bad thing for a groundball pitcher – the shift has been limited, but there's still value in the defense behind you being able to predict where the ball might go.

Elder has three pitchers that generate a healthy number of groundballs, with only his four-seam fastball sporting an average launch angle allowed over 5 degrees. That fastball is a pretty good swing-and-miss pitch for him, and the ability to change eye levels and generate weak pop-ups could help, too.

The problem there is, Elder isn't really generating much weak contact with either of his fastballs. His four-seamer has a .425 expected wOBA allowed, while his sinker has a .390 mark. That mostly hasn't hurt him yet because he's been unnaturally good with runners on base – his OPS allowed with the bases empty is .759, a mark that falls to .478 with runners on base. That helps explain why he's managed to strange 87.4% of opposing baserunners, the second-highest mark of any starter this season.

And that's where it starts to get pretty tough to be optimistic. Sure, Elder could be a useful Fantasy option moving forward, but so much of his success right now is based on sequencing – when he's giving up hits – and that's hard to sustain. He's been pretty good at generating soft contact, but not elite, and that's one of the primary ways you can overcome a lack of strikeouts.

Elder isn't a bad pitcher, but I think his skill set is probably more like that of a high-3.00s ERA pitcher. There's value in that, but it's pretty limited value. If I had him on any of my teams, I'd be taking this opportunity to try to shop him for one of any number of underperformers with more upside – Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease, or Hunter Greene come immediately to mind as pitchers I'd be happy to flip Elder for.

Maybe he'll continue to confound us. It happens, and there are outliers – guys like Framber Valdez and Kyle Hendricks have been very good pitchers over the past five years without big strikeout numbers, obviously. But, the likeliest outcome is this is the height of Elder's value. Try to take advantage.

H2H Points league Trade Values

Rank	Player	Eligible	Value	Change From Last Week
1	Ronald Acuna	DH-OF	48
2	Aaron Judge	DH-OF	46
3	Fernando Tatis	OF-SS	46
4	Jose Ramirez	3B-DH	46
5	Juan Soto	OF	45
6	Yordan Alvarez	DH-OF	45
7	Julio Rodriguez	OF	43
8	Mookie Betts	2B-OF-SS	41
9	Shohei Ohtani	DH-SP	39
10	Kyle Tucker	OF	38
11	Bo Bichette	SS	37
12	Freddie Freeman	1B	37
13	Mike Trout	OF	36
14	Pete Alonso	1B-DH	36
15	Rafael Devers	3B	36	-1
16	Trea Turner	SS	36
17	Vladimir Guerrero	1B-DH	36	-3
18	Bryce Harper	DH	36
19	Gerrit Cole	SP	34
20	Paul Goldschmidt	1B-DH	33
21	Austin Riley	3B	33
22	Shane McClanahan	SP	33
23	Spencer Strider	RP-SP	32
24	Corbin Burnes	SP	32
25	Max Scherzer	SP	31
26	Matt Olson	1B	29
27	Marcus Semien	2B	28
28	Bobby Witt	3B-DH-SS	28
29	Aaron Nola	SP	28
30	Randy Arozarena	DH-OF	28
31	Zack Wheeler	SP	28
32	Nolan Arenado	3B-DH	28
33	Justin Verlander	SP	28
34	Sandy Alcantara	SP	28	-4
35	Kevin Gausman	SP	28
36	Emmanuel Clase	RP	25
37	Kyle Schwarber	DH-OF	25
38	Framber Valdez	SP	25
39	Luis Robert	OF	25
40	Luis Castillo	SP	24
41	Wander Franco	SS	24
42	Jacob deGrom	SP	24
43	Francisco Lindor	SS	24
44	Ozzie Albies	2B	23
45	Jose Altuve	2B	23
46	Josh Hader	RP	23
47	Zac Gallen	SP	23
48	Bryan Reynolds	OF	23
49	J.T. Realmuto	C	21
50	Will Smith	C-DH	21
51	Corbin Carroll	OF	21	6
52	Adolis Garcia	DH-OF	20
53	Shane Bieber	SP	20
54	Corey Seager	SS	20
55	George Springer	DH-OF	20
56	Julio Urias	SP	19
57	Devin Williams	RP	19
58	Joe Musgrove	SP	18
59	Michael Harris	OF	18
60	Xander Bogaerts	SS	18
61	Dylan Cease	SP	18
62	Alex Bregman	3B	17
63	Cristian Javier	SP	17
64	Jordan Romano	RP	16
65	Felix Bautista	RP	16
66	Brandon Woodruff	SP	15
67	Salvador Perez	C-DH	15
68	Vinnie Pasquantino	1B-DH	15
69	Christian Walker	1B	15
70	Max Muncy	2B-3B-DH	15	-5
71	Willy Adames	SS	15
72	Dansby Swanson	SS	15
73	Cedric Mullins	OF	15	-13
74	Byron Buxton	DH-OF	15
75	Clayton Kershaw	SP	15
76	Starling Marte	OF	15
77	Teoscar Hernandez	DH-OF	15
78	Manny Machado	3B	15
79	Pablo Lopez	SP	15
80	Ryan Helsley	RP	15
81	Yu Darvish	SP	15	-6
82	Nate Lowe	1B	15
83	Logan Webb	SP	15
84	Mitch Keller	SP	15	2
85	Tim Anderson	SS	15
86	Ryan Pressly	RP	15
87	Adley Rutschman	C-DH	15
88	Joe Ryan	SP	15
89	Sean Murphy	C-DH	15
90	Camilo Doval	RP	15
91	Christian Yelich	DH-OF	15
92	Kris Bryant	DH-OF	15
93	Tommy Edman	2B-OF-SS	15
94	Matt Chapman	3B	15
95	Anthony Rizzo	1B	15
96	Yandy Diaz	1B-3B	15
97	Kenley Jansen	RP	15	1
98	George Kirby	SP	15	1
99	Rowdy Tellez	1B	14
100	Logan Gilbert	SP	14
101	Steven Kwan	OF	14
102	David Bednar	RP	14
103	Nico Hoerner	2B-SS	14
104	Eloy Jimenez	DH-OF	14	1
105	Jazz Chisholm	2B-OF	14	1
106	Hunter Brown	RP-SP	13	4
107	Daulton Varsho	C-OF	13
108	Freddy Peralta	SP	13
109	Chris Sale	SP	13
110	Jeremy Pena	SS	13	1
111	Gleyber Torres	2B-DH	13	1
112	Hunter Renfroe	OF	12
113	Anthony Santander	DH-OF	12	1
114	Seiya Suzuki	OF	12	1
115	Luis Severino	SP	11	1
116	Jonathan India	2B-DH	11	1
117	Nathan Eovaldi	SP	10
118	Charlie Morton	SP	10
119	Nestor Cortes	SP	10	-2
120	Brandon Lowe	2B	10	1
121	Ian Happ	OF	10	1
122	Tyler Glasnow	SP	9
123	Alejandro Kirk	C-DH	9
124	Lance Lynn	SP	9
125	Gunnar Henderson	3B-SS	9
126	C.J. Cron	1B-DH	9
127	Willson Contreras	C-DH	9
128	Carlos Correa	SS	9	-5
129	Andres Gimenez	2B	9	1
130	Brandon Nimmo	OF	9	1
131	Raisel Iglesias	RP	8
132	Jose Abreu	1B-DH	8
133	Nick Castellanos	DH-OF	8
134	Paul Sewald	RP	8
135	Ketel Marte	2B-DH	8
136	Jarred Kelenic	OF	8
137	Sonny Gray	SP	8
138	Josh Bell	1B-DH	8	1
139	Hunter Greene	SP	8	-3
140	Jesus Luzardo	SP	7
141	Carlos Rodon	SP	7
142	Blake Snell	SP	7	1
143	Bryce Miller	SP	7	1
144	Alek Manoah	SP	6
145	Chris Bassitt	SP	6
146	MJ Melendez	C-DH-OF	6
147	Ryan Mountcastle	1B-DH	6
148	Giancarlo Stanton	DH-OF	6	1
149	J.D. Martinez	DH	6	1
150	Alexis Diaz	RP	5
151	Anthony Volpe	SS	5
152	Josh Jung	3B	5	2
153	Nolan Gorman	2B-3B-DH	5	2
154	Tyler Stephenson	1B-C-DH	5
155	James Outman	OF	5
156	Ty France	1B	5
157	William Contreras	C-DH	5
158	Miguel Vargas	1B-2B	5	1
159	Jose Berrios	SP	5	1
160	Lucas Giolito	SP	4
161	Jordan Montgomery	SP	4
162	Tony Gonsolin	SP	4
163	Alex Verdugo	OF	4
164	Mitch Haniger	OF	4
165	Thairo Estrada	2B-SS	4
166	Javier Baez	SS	4
167	Jhoan Duran	RP	4
168	Masataka Yoshida	DH-OF	4
169	Alec Bohm	1B-3B	4
170	Eugenio Suarez	3B	4	1
171	Jorge Polanco	2B	4	1
172	Max Fried	SP	3
173	Luis Arraez	1B-2B-DH	3
174	Jeff McNeil	2B-OF	3
175	Andrew Chafin	RP	3
176	Anthony Rendon	3B	3
177	Andrew Vaughn	1B-DH-OF	3
178	Ryan McMahon	2B-3B	3
179	Clay Holmes	RP	3
180	Triston McKenzie	SP	3
181	Jorge Soler	DH-OF	3
182	Cody Bellinger	OF	3
183	Jake Cronenworth	1B-2B	3
184	Ezequiel Tovar	SS	3
185	Reid Detmers	SP	3
186	Amed Rosario	SS	3	-1
187	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	3
188	Alex Cobb	SP	3
189	Andrew Heaney	SP	3
190	Josh Naylor	1B-DH	3
191	Merrill Kelly	SP	3
192	Joey Gallo	1B-OF	3
193	David Robertson	RP	3	1
194	Lars Nootbaar	OF	3	1
195	Riley Greene	OF	2
196	Peter Fairbanks	RP	2
197	Lourdes Gurriel	DH-OF	2
198	Jon Gray	SP	2
199	Bryson Stott	2B-SS	2
200	Taylor Ward	OF	2	-4
201	Eury Perez	SP	2
202	Spencer Steer	1B-3B	2	1
203	Nick Lodolo	SP	2
204	A.J. Puk	RP	2
205	Francisco Alvarez	C	2	1
206	Jose Siri	OF	2	2
207	Elly De La Cruz	SS	2	2
208	Jack Flaherty	SP	2
209	Michael Kopech	SP	2
210	Bryce Elder	SP	2	2
211	Marcus Stroman	SP	2
212	Joc Pederson	DH-OF	2
213	Charlie Blackmon	DH-OF	2	1
214	LaMonte Wade	1B-OF	2	1

Rotisserie/Categories leagues Trade Values

Rank	Player	Eligible	Value	Change From Last Week
1	Ronald Acuna	DH-OF	44
2	Aaron Judge	DH-OF	43
3	Fernando Tatis	OF-SS	43
4	Jose Ramirez	3B-DH	43
5	Shohei Ohtani	DH-SP	43
6	Bo Bichette	SS	39
7	Julio Rodriguez	OF	38
8	Yordan Alvarez	DH-OF	38
9	Juan Soto	OF	35
10	Mookie Betts	2B-OF-SS	35
11	Kyle Tucker	OF	34
12	Rafael Devers	3B	34
13	Freddie Freeman	1B	31
14	Mike Trout	OF	31
15	Pete Alonso	1B-DH	31	2
16	Trea Turner	SS	29
17	Vladimir Guerrero	1B-DH	29	-6
18	Bryce Harper	DH	29
19	Paul Goldschmidt	1B-DH	27
20	Gerrit Cole	SP	27
21	Spencer Strider	RP-SP	27
22	Austin Riley	3B	27
23	Bobby Witt	3B-DH-SS	27
24	Marcus Semien	2B	27
25	Justin Verlander	SP	25
26	Matt Olson	1B	25
27	Randy Arozarena	DH-OF	24
28	Shane McClanahan	SP	24
29	Corbin Burnes	SP	24
30	Max Scherzer	SP	24
31	Kevin Gausman	SP	24
32	Zack Wheeler	SP	23
33	Aaron Nola	SP	22
34	Nolan Arenado	3B-DH	21
35	Emmanuel Clase	RP	21
36	Sandy Alcantara	SP	21	-2
37	Framber Valdez	SP	21
38	Luis Robert	OF	20
39	Zac Gallen	SP	20
40	Josh Hader	RP	20
41	Luis Castillo	SP	20
42	Bryan Reynolds	OF	18
43	Kyle Schwarber	DH-OF	18
44	Wander Franco	SS	18
45	Jacob deGrom	SP	17
46	Ozzie Albies	2B	17
47	Jose Altuve	2B	17
48	Adolis Garcia	DH-OF	16
49	Francisco Lindor	SS	16
50	Will Smith	C-DH	16
51	Corey Seager	SS	15
52	Joe Musgrove	SP	15
53	Devin Williams	RP	15
54	Jordan Romano	RP	15
55	J.T. Realmuto	C	15
56	Corbin Carroll	OF	15
57	Felix Bautista	RP	15
58	Xander Bogaerts	SS	15
59	George Springer	DH-OF	15
60	Julio Urias	SP	15
61	Michael Harris	OF	15
62	Cristian Javier	SP	15
63	Willy Adames	SS	15
64	Shane Bieber	SP	15
65	Salvador Perez	C-DH	15
66	Nate Lowe	1B	15
67	Christian Walker	1B	15
68	Brandon Woodruff	SP	15
69	Alex Bregman	3B	15
70	Starling Marte	OF	15
71	Manny Machado	3B	15
72	Ryan Helsley	RP	15
73	Vinnie Pasquantino	1B-DH	15
74	Byron Buxton	DH-OF	15
75	Cedric Mullins	OF	15	-5
76	Dylan Cease	SP	15
77	Clayton Kershaw	SP	15
78	Pablo Lopez	SP	15
79	Max Muncy	2B-3B-DH	15
80	Tim Anderson	SS	15
81	Dansby Swanson	SS	15
82	Logan Webb	SP	15	1
83	Yu Darvish	SP	14	-3
84	Joe Ryan	SP	14
85	Mitch Keller	SP	14	2
86	Camilo Doval	RP	14
87	Gleyber Torres	2B-DH	14
88	Ryan Pressly	RP	14
89	Seiya Suzuki	OF	14
90	Christian Yelich	DH-OF	14
91	Rowdy Tellez	1B	14
92	Eloy Jimenez	DH-OF	14	1
93	Kris Bryant	DH-OF	14
94	Teoscar Hernandez	DH-OF	14
95	Tommy Edman	2B-OF-SS	14
96	Nico Hoerner	2B-SS	14
97	Sean Murphy	C-DH	14
98	Logan Gilbert	SP	14
99	Kenley Jansen	RP	14
100	Adley Rutschman	C-DH	14
101	David Bednar	RP	14
102	Yandy Diaz	1B-3B	14
103	Matt Chapman	3B	14	1
104	George Kirby	SP	13
105	Andres Gimenez	2B	13
106	Jazz Chisholm	2B-OF	13
107	Daulton Varsho	C-OF	13
108	Jeremy Pena	SS	13	1
109	Anthony Rizzo	1B	12
110	Anthony Santander	DH-OF	12
111	Jonathan India	2B-DH	12
112	Freddy Peralta	SP	12
113	Chris Sale	SP	12	1
114	C.J. Cron	1B-DH	11
115	Nestor Cortes	SP	11	-3
116	Nathan Eovaldi	SP	11
117	Ian Happ	OF	11
118	Tyler Glasnow	SP	11
119	Hunter Renfroe	OF	11
120	Raisel Iglesias	RP	11
121	Steven Kwan	OF	11
122	Nick Castellanos	DH-OF	10
123	Alexis Diaz	RP	10	1
124	Brandon Nimmo	OF	9
125	Brandon Lowe	2B	9
126	Paul Sewald	RP	9
127	Ryan Mountcastle	1B-DH	9	1
128	Ty France	1B	8
129	Gunnar Henderson	3B-SS	8
130	Hunter Brown	RP-SP	8	1
131	Luis Severino	SP	8
132	James Outman	OF	8
133	Christopher Morel	2B-DH-OF	8
134	Carlos Correa	SS	8	-5
135	Alex Verdugo	OF	8
136	Masataka Yoshida	DH-OF	8
137	Sonny Gray	SP	8
138	Ketel Marte	2B-DH	8	1
139	Giancarlo Stanton	DH-OF	7
140	Jarred Kelenic	OF	7
141	Hunter Greene	SP	7	-2
142	Jose Abreu	1B-DH	7
143	Jesus Luzardo	SP	7
144	Alek Manoah	SP	7
145	Anthony Volpe	SS	7
146	Thairo Estrada	2B-SS	7	-3
147	Javier Baez	SS	7	-3
148	Carlos Rodon	SP	7
149	Bryce Miller	SP	7
150	Nolan Gorman	2B-3B-DH	7	1
151	Josh Jung	3B	7	3
152	Blake Snell	SP	7
153	Willson Contreras	C-DH	7
154	J.D. Martinez	DH	7
155	David Robertson	RP	7
156	Josh Bell	1B-DH	7
157	Jose Alvarado	RP	7
158	Lourdes Gurriel	DH-OF	7
159	Esteury Ruiz	OF	7
160	Jorge Soler	DH-OF	7
161	MJ Melendez	C-DH-OF	7
162	Chris Bassitt	SP	7
163	Jhoan Duran	RP	7
164	Ryan McMahon	2B-3B	7
165	Joey Gallo	1B-OF	7
166	Charlie Morton	SP	7
167	Tyler Stephenson	1B-C-DH	7
168	Alec Bohm	1B-3B	7	1
169	Lance Lynn	SP	6	-1
170	Jose Berrios	SP	6
171	Jorge Polanco	2B	6
172	Luis Arraez	1B-2B-DH	6
173	Miguel Vargas	1B-2B	6
174	Lucas Giolito	SP	6
175	Jeff McNeil	2B-OF	6
176	Andrew Chafin	RP	6
177	Jordan Montgomery	SP	6
178	Cody Bellinger	OF	6
179	Mitch Haniger	OF	6
180	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	6
181	Carlos Estevez	RP	6
182	William Contreras	C-DH	6
183	Alejandro Kirk	C-DH	6
184	Alex Cobb	SP	6
185	A.J. Puk	RP	6
186	Max Fried	SP	6
187	Triston McKenzie	SP	6
188	Justin Turner	1B-3B-DH	6
189	Amed Rosario	SS	6	-1
190	Josh Naylor	1B-DH	6
191	Eugenio Suarez	3B	6
192	Anthony Rendon	3B	6
193	Riley Greene	OF	6
194	Lars Nootbaar	OF	6
195	Tony Gonsolin	SP	6	3
196	Andrew Vaughn	1B-DH-OF	6	1
197	Clay Holmes	RP	5
198	Jake Cronenworth	1B-2B	5
199	Andrew Heaney	SP	5
200	Scott Barlow	RP	5
201	Jarren Duran	OF	5	-1
202	Reid Detmers	SP	5
203	Francisco Alvarez	C	5	2
204	Charlie Blackmon	DH-OF	5
205	Taylor Ward	OF	5
206	Ezequiel Tovar	SS	5
207	Brusdar Graterol	RP	5
208	Michael Conforto	OF	5	1
209	Joc Pederson	DH-OF	4
210	Spencer Steer	1B-3B	4	1
211	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	4	-2
212	Alex Lange	RP	4
213	Merrill Kelly	SP	4
214	Jorge Mateo	SS	4
215	Marcus Stroman	SP	4
216	Evan Phillips	RP	4
217	Bryce Elder	SP	4	4
218	Will Smith	RP	4
219	Peter Fairbanks	RP	4
220	Ramon Laureano	OF	4
221	Eury Perez	SP	4
222	Zach Eflin	SP	4
223	Taj Bradley	SP	4
224	Kyle Finnegan	RP	4
225	Austin Hays	OF	4
226	Jose Siri	OF	4	3
227	Bryan De La Cruz	OF	4	4
228	Liam Hendriks	RP	4
229	Andres Munoz	RP	4
230	Jon Gray	SP	4	1
231	Jake Fraley	DH-OF	3
232	Cal Raleigh	C-DH	3
233	Louie Varland	SP	3
234	A.J. Minter	RP	3
235	Bailey Ober	SP	3
236	Michael Kopech	SP	3
237	Whit Merrifield	2B-OF	3
238	Bobby Miller	SP	3
239	Edward Cabrera	SP	3	1
240	Logan Taylor Allen	SP	3	1
241	Jason Adam	RP	3
242	Randal Grichuk	OF	3
243	Travis d'Arnaud	C-DH	3
244	Jonah Heim	C	3
245	Nick Lodolo	SP	3
246	Joey Meneses	1B-DH-OF	3
247	Tyler O'Neill	OF	3
248	Tanner Bibee	SP	3
249	Harrison Bader	OF	3	-3
250	Keibert Ruiz	C	3
251	Patrick Sandoval	SP	3
252	Miles Mikolas	SP	3
253	Bryan Abreu	RP	3	1
254	Elly De La Cruz	SS	2	2
255	Yoan Moncada	3B	2
256	Matt Mervis	1B	2
257	Wil Myers	1B-OF	2
258	Triston Casas	1B	2
259	Danny Jansen	C-DH	2
260	Craig Kimbrel	RP	2
261	Jack Flaherty	SP	2
262	Brent Rooker	DH-OF	2
263	Jose Urquidy	SP	2
264	Graham Ashcraft	SP	2
265	DJ LeMahieu	1B-2B-3B	2
266	Aroldis Chapman	RP	2
267	Adam Ottavino	RP	2
268	Jorge Lopez	RP	2
269	Giovanny Gallegos	RP	2
270	Bryson Stott	2B-SS	2	1