It's awfully early to be talking about regression. I assume most of you know that Eric Thames isn't going to hit 80 home runs this year and Eric Hosmer isn't going to hit below the Mendoza Line. Still, it can be tough to handle a slow April when it's bordering on carrying into May.
Most of the time it makes sense to under-react to April, but that can be tough without a little nudge in that direction. Here's a nudge on five guys you shouldn't sell low, despite how terrible their slash lines are.
Franco's breakout may have started on Wednesday night when he racked up three hits, a home run and four RBI. I wish he'd waited until this article had come out. Franco has shown better plate discipline, great contact skills, and so far posted the highest hard contact rate (36.9 percent) of his career. He's been rewarded with a .180 BABIP. That's about 100 points lower than what I would expect with his career batted ball profile.
The one thing that has salvaged his value so far this season is the 20 RBI he's compiled due to timely hitting and the fact that Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez have been on base a lot. While I don't think timely hitting is really something you can count on, I do expect a lot of RBI opportunities that could give Franco a chance to sneak back into the top 12 at 3B once his fortune changes.
Rougned Odor is never going to be a high on-base guy because of his near-refusal to walk. The Rangers' second baseman has 62 walks in more than 1,600 career PA and he's shown no sign of changing that in 2017. What he has done is cut his strikeout rate from last year's career high, but he still has a terrible slash line due largely to that unsustainably low BABIP. Odor's could have a very low BABIP if he maintains the 54 percent fly ball rate he has for the first three weeks. But that leads us to the other inconsistency.
Odor's ISO (.165) and HR/FB rate (8.1 percent) are both at career lows despite the fact he has a career- high hard contact rate (38 percent). If you're hitting the ball hard in the air you would expect to have a lot more than the three home runs he has. In fact, he only has seven extra base hits, which is ridiculous when you look at the way he's hitting the ball.
I can accept a reality where Odor sells out for power and hits below .250 for the first time in his career. In fact, that looks like what he's going for. But that change should lead to close to 40 home runs and more than 100 RBI. Odor has always been a streaky hitter and I would expect the good streak to start any time now.
I trust you're all sophisticated enough to see Machado's career .307 BABIP and recognize that he's in for some serious regression. What you may not realize is how unlucky he has been.
Machado's average exit velocity per Statcast is 95.5 MPH, the seventh highest mark in baseball. He has a 48 percent hard contact rate and a 46 percent fly ball rate that makes his .164 ISO rather unbelievable. Machado's peripherals looks better in almost every way and he's just hit in some terribly bad luck.
I wouldn't be surprised if you have some sneaky owner in your league who thinks he's going to buy low on Machado based on three unlucky weeks. Don't even consider it. He looks like he's going to perform very much like the first-round pick you spent on him.
I could understand if you were starting to get a little bit nervous about Carlos Correa. He underperformed his ADP in 2016 and he is off to a dreadful start this year. Correa only has three extra base hits and five RBI in his first 18 games. That's awful but you shouldn't panic.
If anything, Correa's peripherals look more like his rookie campaign than last year. He's making hard contact often (42.6 percent), but it's just not translating into extra base hits... yet. Correa's HR/FB rate (9.1 percent) is less than half of his career mark, and that's just not something that really makes any sense.
Be the shark in your league and go make a buy-low offer on Correa if you're one of the many owners with a bleak outlook at shortstop.
Chris Towers wrote pretty much all you need to know about Hanley Ramirez. He has the profile of an elite hitter and the results of a 33-year-old hitter who's going over the hill. Ramirez should be available for almost nothing in your league, and that's exactly the type of offer you should make for him. I don't expect him to be a top-10 first baseman, but he should be an excellent corner infielder or utility as long as he's healthy.
