Fantasy Baseball: Redrafting the first two rounds for the second half of 2022

USATSI

The concept here is pretty simple: If we were redrafting today, at roughly the halfway point of the season, how would the first two rounds look?

I asked this same question a quarter of the way through the season (here's the evidence), and you may be surprised how much has changed even since then. For starters, six players have been swapped out. You may also remember we were still worried about the state of offense around baseball at that point in time, which had me fading pitchers in the hypothetical redraft. I'm a little more open to taking them this time around.

While the talent gap at third base was just as obvious then as it is now, one nearly as wide has opened up in the outfield. Neither position is lacking in high-end talent, but the drop-off for each is sudden and stark, creating a dichotomy that you want to be on the right side of. I was tempted to make a first round consisting entirely of third basemen and outfielders. If not for Trea Turner and Shohei Ohtani, I would have.

I should note that these rankings are intended for traditional 5x5 scoring. Points scoring would see some of the starting pitchers moved up and some of the base-stealers moved down, among other things. I've noted the discrepancies where they exist.

Round 1

1	Jose Ramirez Cleveland Guardians 3B
At the position with the clearest divide between the haves and have-nots, Ramirez is the havingest of the haves, standing out most for his power but with enough speed and contact skills to elevate him in both scoring formats.
2	Ronald Acuna Atlanta Braves RF
Between nagging injuries and a late start to the season, Acuna's production is down a bit, but he'll heat up soon enough. Most encouraging is how he's continued to run with reckless abandon even after ACL surgery.
3	Trea Turner Los Angeles Dodgers SS
His power has picked up as the ball has played closer to normal the past couple months, and of course the steals are priceless in 5x5 scoring. Naturally, second base is weak, but would you believe Turner is also the only shortstop depicted here?
4	Aaron Judge New York Yankees CF
When's the last time we saw a player with a realistic shot at 60 homers in a season? Judge has not only stayed healthy but also expanded his game, keeping the strikeouts under control for a second straight year and even stealing some bases.
5	Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros DH
When I last performed this exercise a quarter of the season ago, I noted that Alvarez's advanced metrics made him out to be a left-handed version of Judge, and the production has certainly followed suit. It would be a close call between the two if not for a nagging hand injury that will sideline Alvarez through the break.
6	Mookie Betts Los Angeles Dodgers RF
Betts doesn't run like he used to but isn't a zero for steals and is a run-scoring machine batting atop the Dodgers lineup. After third base, outfield might be the most important position to fill early.
7	Rafael Devers Boston Red Sox 3B
The gap has widened between Devers and Manny Machado for second-best at the highest-priority position, and the batted-ball data reflects it as well. Devers might be among the safest bets for batting average now.
8	Mike Trout Los Angeles Angels CF
Last quarter, I trumpeted Trout's return as the top player in Fantasy, but at the time, I thought he'd bring his strikeout rate closer to normal. By now, it's been elevated long enough to treat as the new normal, making him no longer a clear standout in batting average. And the stolen bases are long gone.
9	Juan Soto Washington Nationals RF
The most disappointing hitter of the first half has shown signs of coming around lately, and the batted-ball data certainly paints a promising picture. With his superlative plate discipline, I might draft Soto as high as second overall in a points league.
10	Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Angels DH
Ohtani has earned this spot on merit, but by expected stats, he's actually been a first-half underachiever, his reduced strikeout rate serving to elevate his batting average potential. In points leagues, where stolen bases are less of a priority, the run on starting pitchers (full-time starting pitchers, that is) might begin here.
11	Kyle Tucker Houston Astros RF
Rather than receding as a base-stealer like I feared coming into the year, Tucker has only doubled down, giving him an even more promising outlook overall. The batting average has lagged in the first half, but his xBA is 92nd percentile, almost identical to last year, when he hit .294.
12	Julio Rodriguez Seattle Mariners CF
There isn't a player in Fantasy Baseball with more helium right now than Rodriguez, whose production continues to improve month over month. Really, it's the stolen bases that push him into this first-round range, so as you might imagine, he's not the same priority in points leagues.

Round 2

1	Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers SP
I've delayed starting pitcher as long as I can, seeing less differentiation among the top names there than among the top hitters. The entire glob belongs ahead of Ohtani in points leagues, with Burnes still leading the way due to his pristine ratios.
2	Gerrit Cole New York Yankees SP
You could make the case for maybe a half a dozen pitchers ahead of Cole, but each would have to meet his best-case scenario to justify it while Cole is as safe a bet for ace production as you'll find.
3	Paul Goldschmidt St. Louis Cardinals 1B
There's a healthy skepticism surrounding a 34-year-old with some of the best numbers of his career, but we already took the better-safe-than-sorry approach with Goldschmidt on Draft Day. All he's done is emerge as a front-runner for NL MVP, and his expected stats are at least on par with the other top first basemen.
4	Vladimir Guerrero Toronto Blue Jays 1B
Though last year's No. 1 overall player has faked us out a couple times, he has yet to go on the sort of tear that brings him anywhere close to last year's pace. It still seems obvious that a player who impacts the ball as hard as he does while making as much contact as he does will hit closer to .300 than .260 in the long run.
5	Sandy Alcantara Miami Marlins SP
Few players have been as impactful in the first half as Alcantara, whose outlier ERA and excessive workload have combined to make him something of a cheat code among starting pitchers. Realistically, though, he's looking at more like a 3.00 ERA going forward, with a shaky supporting cast and less than a strikeout per inning.
6	Justin Verlander Houston Astros SP
Some might flag Verlander as a workload risk seeing as it's his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but at 39, what's he holding back for? His strikeout rate has been a bit on the ordinary side, but he's never given us reason to doubt whether or not he's still an ace.
7	Max Scherzer New York Mets SP
Scherzer has been overpowering since returning from a strained oblique, but that return seemed a bit hurried given the severity (Grade 2) and Scherzer's age (37). If not for the possibility of a recurrence taking up residence in the back of my mind, I could make the case for Scherzer ahead of Verlander or even Alcantara.
8	Manny Machado San Diego Padres 3B
Maybe playing through a couple nagging injuries has had something to do with it, but Machado looked a bit more ordinary in the second quarter of the season and has basically stopped stealing bases. He remains a standout at a position where you either have one or you don't, and that's enough for me to take him this high.
9	Austin Riley Atlanta Braves 3B
Have I mentioned that third base is a top priority early? There may be one or two more worth paying up for after Riley, but leaving position scarcity out of it, he's put himself in this discussion just with his performance. Really, in what way does he profile so different from the next guy on this list?
10	Pete Alonso New York Mets 1B
Alonso is little more than a masher and plays one of the few positions with enough bats to go around, but he's good at what he does, having led the majors in RBI basically from the get-go. He feels sturdier than Riley, but all other things being equal, you'd rather fill third base first.
11	Shane McClanahan Tampa Bay Rays SP
A look under the hood tells me McClanahan is pretty close to being the perfect pitcher, and if we were drafting for a new season, he'd be challenging Corbin Burnes for No. 1 at the position. But it wouldn't be surprising, given his stage of development, if he's limited to 60-65 innings in the second half.
12	Freddie Freeman Los Angeles Dodgers 1B
An unexpected stolen base contribution has helped make up for Freeman's shortfall in home runs, and he of course remains as reliable for batting average as anybody. We're already beginning to see the home runs tick up, so this ranking may seem too low in retrospect.

Also considered (listed alphabetically)

Jose Altuve Houston Astros 2B

Absent all other context, the numbers fall a bit short, but he's the only second base standout other than Turner, really, at least among those who are healthy.

Bo Bichette Toronto Blue Jays SS

My reservations are less about whether he bounces back as a hitter than whether he's still inclined to run like he did a year ago.

Jacob deGrom New York Mets SP

I suppose we have to give the game's most talented pitcher some consideration now that he's on the rehabilitation trail, but anyone who trusts his elbow to hold together for three consecutive months is braver than I am.

Luis Robert Chicago White Sox CF

While his strikeout rate continues to trend the right direction, everything else that made him exciting is going the other way, giving him more of a 20/20 profile than a 30/30 profile.

Carlos Rodon San Francisco Giants SP

Lingering durability concerns and intermittent fluctuations in velocity raise the anxiety level for Rodon, but at his best, he looks a lot like Burnes.

Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies LF

He has emerged as one of the premier sluggers in the game, rivaling anyone shy of Judge and Alvarez. Position scarcity would push him ahead of Alonso for me if he can get the batting average up.

Fernando Tatis San Diego Padres SS

We still don't have a clear timetable for the wrist, but the consensus No. 1 pick in early drafts has the potential to rearrange the standings if he can make it back before the end of July.

Zack Wheeler Philadelphia Phillies SP

He's a surefire ace, but the kind who earns B grades across the board, which makes him easy enough to bump to Round 3.

Bobby Witt Kansas City Royals SS

Among shortstops, Witt has the edge over Dansby Swanson for several reasons, namely a lower strikeout rate, higher perceived ceiling and dual eligibility at third base.