After trading away Juan Soto to avoid the risk of losing him in free agency and to shed payroll, the Padres made a bold move on March 14 by using part of the return for Soto to acquire White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease. Drew Thorpe was one of four players Chicago received in return for Cease and Thorpe is a consensus top-100 prospect. However, he topped out in Double-A last season, so he's unlikely to make Chicago's opening day roster. So how will the White Sox round out their rotation and how will Cease fare in San Diego?
Those are the sorts of questions that you should be asking ahead of your last-minute 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts. And with a reliable set of live-updated 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings, you can find those answers quickly while also identifying potential 2024 Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts. Before going on the clock in any 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts, be sure to see the Fantasy baseball rankings 2024 and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last season, SportsLine's Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts, and busts, including Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon. The team at SportsLine was all over Rodon as a Fantasy bust from the start after he signed a six-year, $162 million contract in the offseason. Rodon posted a 27-13 record with a 2.67 ERA and 422 strikeouts over 310 2/3 innings in 2021 and 2022, but the model predicted he'd finish well below his ADP of 76.88. The result: Rodon made only 14 starts and went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA and anybody who followed SportsLine's advice avoided a major headache.
Their model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.
Any time more MLB news comes out about trades, signings or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.
Top 2024 Fantasy baseball sleepers
One of the 2024 Fantasy baseball sleepers the model is all over: Braves catcher Sean Murphy. He is coming off an outstanding first year in Atlanta, hitting .251 with 21 home runs and 68 RBI. Murphy also had an excellent OBP (.365) and walk rate (11.2%), giving him an edge over teammate Travis d'Arnaud for the starting gig.
Murphy's fielding skills will keep him in the lineup as well, especially since he has proven himself as a quality hitter. He plays in one of the top lineups in the majors, giving him a chance to drive in runs at a high rate throughout the season. SportsLine's model has Murphy ranked ahead of catcher Adley Rutschman and Yainer Diaz, who are both going off the board before him in average Fantasy drafts. See more Fantasy baseball sleepers at SportsLine.
Top 2024 Fantasy baseball breakouts
One of the 2024 Fantasy baseball breakouts the model is jumping on: Angels shortstop Zachary Neto. The No. 13 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Neto debuted for the Angels in 2023 and played in 84 games during his rookie season. A top-100 prospect before the start of the 2023 season, Neto slashed .225/.308/.377 in his first Major League season.
However, he did hit nine home runs, 34 RBI and five stolen bases and he projects for above-average production in both categories going forward. Neto only spent 48 games in the minors in 2022 and 2023 before earning his big-league callup and the model ranks him ahead of fellow shortstops Vaughn Grissom and Jackson Holliday despite the fact that he's going undrafted in most CBS Sports Fantasy baseball leagues See more Fantasy baseball breakouts at SportsLine.
Top 2024 Fantasy baseball busts
As for players to avoid, the model has pinpointed Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes as one of its biggest 2024 Fantasy baseball busts. Burnes won the NL Cy Young award in 2021 and followed up his breakout season by posting a 2.94 ERA and leading the National League in strikeouts (243) with the Brewers in 2022. Last season, Burnes lead qualified NL starters in WHIP while reaching 200 strikeouts for the third consecutive season before being traded to Baltimore in February.
However, his numbers took a slight dip in 2023 and there are some reasons to be concerned about the peripheral numbers too. Burnes finished with a 3.39 ERA with a 200:66 K:BB across 193.2 innings in 2023. He saw his K/9 rate drop for a second consecutive season (from 12.6 to 10.8 to 9.3) and he also benefitted from some good fortune when it comes to batted balls, with last season's .244 BABIP clocking in at nearly 50 points below his previous career average (.293). Those are big reasons why the model ranks Burnes, who's being drafted in the second round on average, behind fellow starting pitchers like Shane Bieber (8th-round ADP), Nathan Eovaldi (8th) and Yu Darvish (8th). See more Fantasy baseball busts at SportsLine.
How to find proven 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings
SportsLine's model is also high on a surprising starting pitcher who bounces back in the top 10 of its positional rankings. This player is going outside the top 100 picks but is projected to outperform starters going in the top 35 like Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb and Aaron Nola. This pick could be the difference between winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.
So which 2024 Fantasy baseball busts, breakouts and sleepers should you target or fade in your drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Carlos Rodon's disappointing season, and find out.
