On the ADP fallers side of the leger, things are a bit different than for the risers. Because these 10 players all mostly have good reasons to be dropping: They're hurt. Now, being hurt on March 6 doesn't necessarily mean a player's price should go down, and it's entirely possible we'll look back in June at some of these prices as significant discounts.
But injuries are next to impossible to predict, and one surefire way to make sure you're exposing yourself to extra risk is by drafting players who are already hurt. To avoid such pitfalls, be sure to check out my 12 biggest risers to get prepared for your next Fantasy Baseball draft.
Without further ado, here are the 12 biggest ADP fallers since the start of March:
Kodai Senga, P, NYM -- Feb. ADP: 102.5; March ADP: 190.0
Senga was diagnosed with a strain in his throwing shoulder at the end of February, so this tumble makes perfect sense. I have him ranked a bit higher than his March ADP, though there's something to keep in mind here: NFBC leagues don't have IL spots, so it's tougher to draft someone you know will be out at the beginning of the season. Still, I'd be happy to roll the dice at this price, and he still went with the last pick of the 13th round, 195th overall, in the Tout Wars mixed-league draft Tuesday night, a league with unlimited IL spots, so that's just the cost now.
Braxton Garrett, P, MIA -- Feb. ADP: 208.4; March ADP: 249.5
Garrett's shoulder is improving, but he's not expected to be ready for the start of the season, and I'm honestly surprised he costs this much still. The price is fine, but Garrett isn't exactly the kind of high-upside arm you want to save a roster spot for. I'll probably let him go to some other team at this point.
Josh Lowe, OF, TB -- Feb. ADP: 72.6; March ADP: 83.2
Lowe is still hoping to be ready for Opening Day despite his hip injury, so he could end up being a nice value with his price dropping. There's some risk here for a player who already has some platoon risk and relies on his athleticism for much of his Fantasy appeal. I probably need him to fall another round or two from his current price, but I also didn't love him even before the injury. Take the discount if you do.
Justin Verlander, P, HOU -- Feb. ADP: 140.5; March ADP: 159.9
Verlander is another pitcher who won't be ready for Opening Day, but I'm kind of thinking of this as a buying opportunity. He dealt with a bit of shoulder discomfort prior to reporting to camp, and that has his prep for the season delayed. However, he's been throwing on the sides without issue, including a 60-pitch bullpen session last weekend. He's expected to face hitters for the first time soon, and could be just a few weeks behind schedule. You could argue he doesn't have ace upside anymore after his strikeout rate collapsed the past two seasons, but his results have nonetheless been very good, and I think he's a decent bet for 150 good innings.
Kevin Gausman, P, TOR -- Feb. ADP: 31.7; March ADP: 35.6
The fall hasn't really been capture for Gausman, who had a bullpen session sidelined by shoulder fatigue two days ago. Since then, his ADP is down to 42.1, which is right around where I've dropped him since the news. There's still some risk at that price, but Gausman has top-five upside, and this might end up being just a blip on the radar, so I certainly don't want to bury him.
Ian Happ, OF, CHC -- Feb. ADP: 154.9; March ADP: 174.1
Happ has been sidelined by a hamstring injury in spring, so his drop in the rankings makes some sense. It doesn't sound too serious, and he has a chance to be ready for Opening Day, but I get being spooked by the injury, just because Happ doesn't have a huge margin for error in his profile. Happ is a pretty good bet for around 20 homers and 10-15 steals, but he'll usually have a pretty bad batting average, and the counting stats are usually decent, but often not great. He's fine, in other words, but if he misses time, he starts to look a lot more replaceable.
David Bednar, P, PIT -- Feb. ADP: 84.4; March ADP: 93.0
Yep, another injury, and another one where the past week's ADP doesn't tell the whole story – Bednar has gone 101.1 on average over the past two days since we learned about his lat injury. It may end up being nothing, but lat injuries have a tendency to linger longer than expected, so he'll have to avoid a setback whenever he is cleared to throw. He hasn't appeared in a spring training game yet, and it looks like Aroldis Chapman may get a chance to open the season as the Pirates closer. If you're taking Bednar, you probably need to take Chapman in the reserve rounds, just in case.
Christian Walker, 1B, ARZ -- Feb. ADP: 86.4; March ADP: 94.6
This is one I just don't understand! Walker didn't seem especially overvalued to me before this, and while he did have a scary hit-by-pitch during a game a few days ago, he's expected to return to game action today, so I don't think there's much reason to be concerned here. Walker seems like a safe bet for 30-plus homers, 180 combined runs and RBI, and even a few steals – did you realize he swiped 11 last season? Buy him here.
Corey Seager, SS, TEX -- Feb. ADP: 28.8; March ADP: 31.4
Seager's price has remained pretty steady, despite the fact that Opening Day remains up in the air. He was cleared to begin physical activities a few weeks ago, with the hope he can return from sports hernia surgery by Opening Day, but it definitely isn't a guarantee. I think this price is fine – I drafted him 33rd overall in my Tout Wars draft – but I'm making sure I have an alternative ready for the start of the season.
Matt McLain, 2B, CIN -- Feb. ADP: 63.2; March ADP: 68.8
McLain is making enough progress in his recovery from a lingering oblique injury that I suspect his price is going to start climbing from this point. He's hoping to make his spring debut in the next week or so, though he'll obviously have to avoid a setback as he continues to ramp up – a real concern, given that this is a similar injury to one he suffered toward the end of last season. It looks like he'll be ready for Opening Day, but I have enough questions about the underlying skill set that I'd need to see him healthy before I could take him here.
Josh Jung, 3B, TEX -- Feb. ADP: 119.4; March ADP: 129.8
Now, Jung is one player I'm fine drafting at a discounted price due to injury. He's coming back from a calf injury and has already faced live pitching and could be cleared to play DH in spring games soon. He's not running at 100% yet, but with three weeks left until the start of the season, it feels like he's got enough time. One thing that could complicate things is if Seager isn't ready to play the field by Opening Day and Jung still isn't 100%, because then they'd both need DH opportunities – and that could spoil the Wyatt Langford coronation, too.
Tommy Edman, 2B, STL -- Feb. ADP: 174.2; March ADP: 189.1
It increasingly appears as if Edman won't be ready for Opening Day. He's coming back from offseason surgery on his right wrist and still hasn't faced live pitching – despite the surgery happening back in October. He's ahead with his left-handed swing, and it sounds like he's been mostly doing infield drills – not a great sign for a guy expected to play primarily center field. Dylan Carlson would likely be the Cardinals primary CF if Edman is out, and it's possible his absence could open an opportunity for exciting outfield prospect Victor Scott, who stole 94 bases in the minors last season. It might be a long shot, but he's worth taking in 15-team leagues just in case.
