Finally, we've arrived at a position that's ... not so terrible.
That's not a ringing endorsement, I know, and perhaps comes across as a touch ungrateful after what we just observed at first and second base. But while I acknowledge that third base shines over those two positions, it also isn't as strong as in years past.
Offense was down across the league in 2024, and the infield positions seem to have been hit the hardest. Either that or all the talent has gravitated toward shortstop, which has some literal truth to it. Elly De La Cruz and Gunnar Henderson, who were both eligible at third base last year, are both confined to shortstop now.
- Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
- Position Previews: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
- Position Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
Without them, third base is once again headlined by a familiar foursome: Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley and Manny Machado. Jazz Chisholm has picked up eligibility there for the first time, and Mark Vientos and Junior Caminero represent new blood in the position. There's promise for sure, but the assurances are few. If you do miss out on the elites, it's likely you'll be gambling to some degree.
And because so much of the position is a gamble anyway, I'm inclined to push things to their limit, forgoing flashier choices like Vientos and Caminero for an understated one later in the draft. There's one late-rounder in particular who would seem to have impact potential, if not quite stud upside, and a fairly high probability of meeting it. Yes, what separates third base from every other position this year is that it's the one with a player whose price and outlook I like so much that I might just tailor my whole draft to him, at least if things don't break my way early.
How's that for a tease? Better keep reading!
| 2025 ADP | 2024 PPG | 2024 BA | 2024 HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jose Ramirez
CLE 3B
| 5 | 4.14 | .279 | 39 |
Jazz Chisholm
NYY CF
| 26 | 3.01 | .256 | 24 |
Rafael Devers
BOS 3B
| 27 | 3.21 | .272 | 28 |
Austin Riley
ATL 3B
| 32 | 2.71 | .257 | 19 |
Manny Machado
SD 3B
| 33 | 3.07 | .275 | 29 |
Though the studs at this position are all early-round mainstays, Ramirez is No. 1 with a bullet this year, having just delivered the best performance of what's shaping up to be a Hall-of-Fame career. He not only equaled a career-high with 39 homers but also set a new one with 41 steals. Both totals figure to regress some this year, but after slipping into the second round of 2024 drafts, Ramirez is firmly back in Round 1 this year and likely a top-five pick overall.
His own performance isn't the only thing setting him apart from the other studs. Devers are Riley were both plagued by injuries last year, causing their numbers to sag, and neither got the benefit of a resolution by season's end. Devers managed to gut his way through inflammation in both shoulders most of the season, but it caught up to him late with a .205 batting average and .624 OPS over the final two months. Riley, meanwhile, started out slow but was quickly gaining ground in August when he broke his hamate bone, the most notorious of all the bones in the hand for its tendency to hamper power protection. Surely those injuries will have resolved themselves all these months later, but for the cost, you might hesitate ever so slightly. And if you pass up Devers and Riley, Machado likely isn't making it back for your next pick either.
Where does Chisholm fit in all this? Likely at second base, where he's expected to gain eligibility within the first week of the season. But sure, you'll have the option of playing him at third base instead, and he's clearly the best power/speed threat at the position apart from Ramirez. He has his own lingering health concern, though, in the form of a sprained UCL late last season. He also has the most extensive injury history of this entire group. Even so, his upside and multi-eligibility make him the right choice to go second at this position, and I'm unlikely to pass him up at the Round 2-3 turn.
| 2025 ADP | 2024 PPG | 2024 BA | 2024 HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mark Vientos
NYM DH
| 78 | 2.80 | .266 | 27 |
Jordan Westburg
BAL 2B
| 86 | 2.89 | .264 | 18 |
Royce Lewis
MIN 3B
| 107 | 2.56 | .233 | 16 |
Junior Caminero
TB 3B
| 109 | 2.33 | .248 | 6 |
Alex Bregman
HOU 3B
| 117 | 2.95 | .260 | 26 |
Jake Burger
TEX 3B
| 127 | 2.60 | .251 | 29 |
Matt Chapman
SF 3B
| 134 | 2.99 | .247 | 27 |
Eugenio Suarez
ARI 3B
| 155 | 2.73 | .256 | 30 |
Alec Bohm
PHI 3B
| 159 | 2.92 | .280 | 15 |
Max Muncy
LAD 3B
| 192 | 3.09 | .232 | 15 |
Luis Rengifo
LAA 2B
| 213 | 2.92 | .300 | 6 |
Nolan Arenado
STL 3B
| 216 | 2.46 | .272 | 16 |
Some lower-end choices: Ryan McMahon, Willi Castro
You may notice that I've grouped Jordan Westburg with other deserving starters here after grouping him with the studs at second base, and I think it speaks to how much stronger third base is at the top. Though I've expressed concerns for Devers and Riley, I do think an early-round outcome is fairly safe for both and plainly safer than for, say, Ozzie Albies and Marcus Semien. I usually strive for consistency with these things, but it already felt like a stretch grouping Westburg with Albies and Semien. Grouping him with Devers and Riley would go a step beyond. The incongruity also suggests is that you really should be drafting Westburg to man second base rather than third just as a matter of maximizing value, though he'd be a capable performer at either spot.
Vientos may also get the stud treatment from those still reveling in his triumphant postseason, during which he homered five times in just 13 games. He showed plenty of power during the regular season as well, emerging as a must-start player once he stepped into the third base role for good. But there's enough downside risk, mostly due to an exorbitant strikeout rate, that I'm actually classifying him as a potential bust for this season. Yup, we've already reached the point where every third baseman feels like a gamble to some degree or another. Caminero is the gamble I'm more inclined to take if he genuinely does last 30 picks beyond Vientos, but that requires everyone else in the league to contain their enthusiasm for "the next big thing." That's unlikely to happen, particularly if they're within earshot of this banger.
Royce Lewis no longer feels so magical after hitting .207 with a .620 OPS during what was the healthiest stretch of his career, a 58-game span to end last season, and while Alex Bregman could be a nice value at his going rate, that's only true if he lands in a venue with an inviting left field fence to maximize his middling power potential (Houston was kind of perfect for that).
When it comes to 2024 bounce-back performers Matt Chapman and Eugenio Suarez, I'm much more drawn to Chapman, who I think made substantive gains with regard to contact and has always had the more impressive underlying data. I doubt he'll be a top-50 player again, but he's priced right for me to take that gamble if not for the fact that my favorite bang-for-the-buck third baseman is going even later.
| 2025 ADP | 2024 PPG | 2024 BA | 2024 OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaac Paredes
HOU 3B
| 197 | 2.61 | .238 | .739 |
Josh Jung
TEX 3B
| 214 | 2.24 | .264 | .719 |
Christopher Morel
TB DH
| 265 | 1.98 | .196 | .634 |
Matt Shaw
CHC SS
| 272 | ----- | .284* | .867* |
Connor Norby
MIA 2B
| 275 | 2.58 | .236 | .732 |
Coby Mayo
BAL 3B
| 297 | 0.12 | .293* | .964* |
Jeimer Candelario
CIN 3B
| 315 | 2.38 | .225 | .707 |
Noelvi Marte
CIN 3B
| 318 | 1.52 | .210 | .549 |
Jace Jung
DET 2B
| 572 | 1.19 | .258* | .841* |
*minor-league stats
All right, enough with the teasing. It's Isaac Paredes. You can read all about what makes him such a good value for this year in my Sleepers 1.0, but the short version is this: He's going to the park best suited for his batted-profile. It's an exaggerated profile that makes up for bottom-of-the-barrel exit velocities with extreme down-the-line tendencies, by which I mean he basically takes aim for the left field foul pole. Tropicana Field was well suited for this approach, and he performed well there. Wrigley Field was poorly suited for this approach, and he did not. Daikin Park, where the Astros play, is perfectly suited for it, so I suspect he'll thrive there, delivering numbers not unlike Alex Bregman did.
So yeah, give me all the Paredes, whether I've already filled third base or not. And I want to stress that last part because, while I'd be fine taking Paredes as my starting third baseman if the draft plays out that way, I don't necessarily want to put all my eggs in that basket. If anyone else is as enthusiastic as I am and beats me to the punch, then what's my recourse? Most of the other sleepers here feel like real long shots. Maybe not Matt Shaw, the top prospect who's in line to replace Paredes for the Cubs, but I've gotten burned in recent years by putting too much trust in rookie hitters. The cost is fine, but I'd prefer Shaw as a corner infielder or speculative bench play than as my primary third baseman.
Otherwise ... look, Josh Jung is in line to start for the Rangers again and showed promise in the not-so-distant past. It's just hard to believe he'll be anything close to healthy for a full season. Connor Norby made a splash for the Marlins down the stretch last year, but the underlying numbers suggest it was a mirage. I still believe in the upside of Coby Mayo and Noelvi Marte, but I don't know that they'll be in a position to make good on it next year. If I'm really in need of a third baseman around Pick 200 and Paredes is already gone, then I'll probably take aim at Luis Rengifo in Rotisserie and Max Muncy in Head-to-Head points. Both were listed in the previous group -- i.e., other deserving starters -- but their ADP is similar to Paredes.
| 2025 ADP | 2024 SB | 2025 hope | Also eligible | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jose Ramirez
CLE 3B
| 5 | 41 | 30-40 | ----- |
Jazz Chisholm
NYY CF
| 26 | 40 | 30-40 | OF |
Matt Chapman
SF 3B
| 134 | 15 | 10-15 | ----- |
Maikel Garcia
KC 3B
| 184 | 37 | 30-40 | 2B |
Luis Rengifo
LAA 2B
| 213 | 24 | 25-30 | 2B |
Willi Castro
MIN LF
| 245 | 14 | 20-25 | 2B, SS, OF |
Dylan Moore
SEA LF
| 312 | 32 | 25-30 | 2B, SS, OF |
Noelvi Marte
CIN 3B
| 318 | 9 | 15-20 | ----- |
Jose Caballero
TB 2B
| 348 | 44 | 30-40 | 2B, SS |
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
PIT CF
| 374 | 11 | 15-20 | 2B, SS |
Ramirez and Chisholm are two of the most highly regarded players in Fantasy and will be drafted where they're drafted regardless of categorical need. But you'll notice that the biggest base-stealers otherwise are multi-eligible and perhaps even repeats from second base, where there's greater justification to start them given the position's overall lack of oomph. Third base asks a little more of its hitters, so I'm even less inclined to fill that spot with a steals specialist. If it works out to take Ramirez or Chisholm, great, but otherwise, the only player from this list who I could genuinely see starting for me at third base is Chapman, His 15 steals last year were a outlier for his career, though his 84th percentile sprint speed makes a repeat performance plausible. In a pinch, Rengifo might also work as a starter, with the hope that his per-game production last year wasn't an aberration, but as I've already implied, he's better suited for second base.
