Time to put my money where my mouth is.
You know who I like if you've read my Sleepers or my Breakouts, my Deep Sleepers or my Underrated by ADP. But who am I actually drafting?
A little of everyone, really. That's not true in the strictest sense, but It's closer to the truth than saying my rosters all look the same. I'm more committed to the overall build than to any of the individual parts and won't even shy away from taking one of my Busts if I think he makes for the best fit.
Looking across the 11 teams that I've assembled so far, there are only three players who I've drafted as many as five times: Alex Bregman, Vinnie Pasquantino and Kodai Senga. (I'll offer my rationale for each soon enough.) I couldn't find anyone else who I've drafted even four times.
But I've nonetheless put together a sort of greatest hits list of those who I've drafted multiple times -- i.e., the players who I've tended to gravitate toward even in the many mock drafts we've done. Some of the names surprised even me.
(Roto ADP is sourced from FantasyPros and H2H points ADP is sourced from CBS Sports.)
Players I keep drafting
I place a high priority on getting one of Ozzie Albies, Marcus Semien and Jose Altuve in Round 3, and since Altuve is the lowest by ADP but the highest for me, it's usually him. His per-game production was on a different level from the other two in points leagues last year, and for Roto leagues, he's far and away the best bet of the three for batting average.
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It's true that Mike Trout isn't what he once was, which makes the injuries a little harder to stomach, but he still had 40 homers, 80 RBI and 85 runs two years ago ... while playing in just 119 games. I make outfield a high priority in every draft, particularly when there are five spots to fill, and the impact Trout could have at that position is too great to pass up in Round 4 or 5.
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I've been saying all offseason that Tarik Skubal is my pick for AL Cy Young after he blew out the rest of the league in FIP and xERA last year. I'd like to have a sturdier ace to pair with him, but if he's the top remaining pitcher on my draft board, I'm basically always taking him -- especially in Rotisserie leagues, where ratios matter more.
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Austin Riley and Rafael Devers aren't optimized for points leagues, and the same goes for mid-round options like Josh Jung and Jake Burger. So my goal at third base in that format is either Alex Bregman in Round 3 or Max Muncy in Round 8. I usually get Bregman, who himself goes closer to Round 8 in Rotisserie leagues, making him a favorite of mine in that format as well for the run and RBI help.
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I've talked about how Kyle Schwarber's bottom-of-the scales batting average makes for a difficult build in Rotisserie leagues, for all the good he does in home runs, runs and RBI. But in auction scenarios, where you can more reliably zero in on batting average after taking him, I've found the price to be more to my liking. I also like Schwarber in points leagues, where the batting average isn't an issue and the walks and home runs make him more plainly a stud.
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As with Schwarber, Nico Hoerner is a player I'm less likely to select in a conventional snake draft, where the gap between him and someone like Bryson Stott is too great to justify, than to purchase in a salary cap draft (i.e., auction), often in tandem with Schwarber since their strengths and weaknesses sync up so perfectly. Also like Schwarber, Hoerner's one major shortcoming (in his case, home runs) isn't as big of a deal in points leagues, where the sum of his contributions still amounts to a big number.
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I actually haven't drafted Cole Ragans as much you might think given how far ahead of the consensus I am on him (it just seems like there's always someone in my drafts who values him as much as I do) but I've found my moments and seized upon them, sometimes even getting him as my third starting pitcher. With the strides he made last year, I think we're looking at 220 strikeouts, health permitting.
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As much time as I spent talking down Justin Steele last year, I've strangely become the high guy on him, but that's because people aren't drafting him like the Cy Young candidate he was. We know he has that Max Fried-level upside now, and even if the ERA slips a little, Steele is so solid across the board that I'm generally content to take him as a stabilizing No. 3, certainly over unprovens like Grayson Rodriguez and Bobby Miller.
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Sure, the exit velocities were lower than ideal and the strikeout rate higher than ideal, but the Rangers trusted Evan Carter to produce when the stakes were highest last year, and he did. One thing he's sure to do is get on base plenty in the heart of perhaps the AL's best lineup, so the runs and RBI alone should be worth the cost. So what if he turns out to be "only" Christian Yelich in the other categories?
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I originally counted Chris Bassitt as just another part of The Glob, and fittingly, ERA is the most questionable of his contributions. But it's everything else that I think makes him uniquely suited to stabilize an otherwise high-risk staff. He keeps men off base and works deep into games for a team with playoff aspirations, which should translate to quality contributions in WHIP, wins and even strikeouts despite him averaging less than one per inning.
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For as hard as I've been pushing Mitch Keller, his 4.21 ERA is admittedly a tough sell, but I still say that recalculating it without his four worst starts (3.13) offers a fair estimate of upside. His best starts are the kind only accessible to aces, and his inning and strikeout totals last year were also akin to an ace. Draft him as your No. 4 starter and watch him outperform your No. 2.
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I was drafting Jackson Chourio around Pick 120 before it was cool, confident that the Brewers would award him an Opening Day job after signing him to a long-term deal this offseason and hopeful that he could make the sort of impact Julio Rodriguez did as a rookie two years ago. He's only 20, which widens the range of outcomes, but the strides he made at Double-A last year are undeniable and the measurables are off the charts.
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How fun it is to be on the Vinnie Pasquantino bandwagon still while so many others appear to have jumped off. He actually lived up to everyone's expectations completely through 38 games last year, slashing .298/.383/.539, but his numbers cratered after he attempted to play through the shoulder injury that ultimately ended his season. The shine is gone, but the upside remains, and as much as I like Triston Casas, I've had a hard time taking him knowing I can grab the nearly-as-capable Pasquantino 75 picks later.
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I came into this year looking to build my pitching staff around strikeouts, and as such, Kodai Senga was a pitcher I flagged within my top 25. He's going outside the top 75 now with a shoulder injury that doesn't seem all that serious and likely won't sideline him for more than a quarter of the season. I'm always happy to wait for a high-impact player if the IL space is available, though now there are so many IL stash candidates at starting pitcher that I may want to diversify my investment.
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Despite being the consensus No. 1 overall prospect, Jackson Holliday never got the draft momentum that Wyatt Langford and Jackson Chourio did -- and for good reason, it turns out. The Orioles revealed Friday that he wouldn't make the opening day roster after dangling the possibility for most of spring training. So what seemed like a potential steal once Dansby Swanson went off the board I guess will be stash for me now. From today forward, I'm not taking Holliday until Junior Caminero goes off the board, probably in the 200-250 range.
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The bottom line is I like Jake Burger more than Josh Jung, so my signal to draft him is pretty clear -- i.e., once Jung is gone. Particularly in categories leagues, where his poor plate discipline isn't such a big deal, Burger is my ace in the hole at third base, having a realistic shot at 40 homers with a better batting average than people realize given his change in approach after joining the Marlins.
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The Rangers used Leclerc like an ace reliever during their World Series run, deploying him often and in the highest-leverage spots, so it never made sense to me that Bruce Bochy would switch things up, despite his equivocation at the start of spring training. Recently, Bochy has acknowledged that Leclerc will likely be his choice for the ninth inning, but the cost remains low.
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There may not be a more undervalued player in drafts this year than Brandon Lowe -- particularly outside of CBS leagues, where he goes beyond the top 250. The injuries have been frustrating, sure, but the production has always been there, such that he might be the best bet for power at second base short of Nolan Gorman. In deeper leagues especially, I've enjoyed leaving second base vacant for him.
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I get the sense people still think a closer battle is going on in San Diego even though Padres beat writer AJ Cassavell confirmed a couple weeks ago that Robert Suarez is the guy. I was Team Yuki Matsui, but Suarez is fine and has made for another quality save source for those who prefer to buy them on the cheap, like I do. I've gotten a bunch of shares in a short span of time.
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I came into Draft Prep season thinking Luis Severino wasn't worth the trouble, given his injury history and disastrous 2023, but then came the revelation of a pitch-tipping issue that the Mets have said was an "easy fix." He's looked good this spring and was good as recently as 2022, after so many years lost to injury. I decided I was too quick to write him off and have since found him to be most affordable.
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I got on the A.J. Puk bandwagon earlier than most, and even now, it seems like he's something of an industry secret. We've seen him put up big strikeout numbers in relief, and the rate has only improved this spring as he's widened his arsenal in anticipation of a starting job. Formerly a top prospect with the Athletics, he only moved to the bullpen because injuries had stalled his development, so this breakthrough has been a long time coming.
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Even before Danny Jansen fractured his wrist, sidelining him for the first couple weeks of the season, I decided to hop back aboard the Alejandro Kirk bandwagon, at least in two-catcher leagues. Granted, the position is too deep to bother in one-catcher leagues, but it was only a year ago that we all regarded Kirk as a top-10 option at the position. While it didn't work out then, partly because of playing-time issues, he remains a superlative contact hitter and a superior defender to Jansen.
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Folks, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com is good at his job. The Padres beat writer clued me in early on Robert Suarez and even earlier on Jackson Merrill, saying as far back as February that the presumed long shot would make the team as long as he hit in spring training. So I scooped Merrill up in my 15-team expert leagues about 150 picks later than he's going now (still too low, in my opinion) and will enjoy mixing him in at both shortstop and outfield, arguably the two weakest positions.
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We've speculated that a sprained knee derailed Tim Anderson's 2023 season, but since it happened 11 games in, the correlation was a tenuous one. Then came his own explanation after signing with the Marlins in late February: "[The injury] took a toll. You're talking about the front side of an MCL sprain. I had nothing to hit up against. It led to a lot of ground balls." So Anderson confirmed the theory while also identifying the resulting mechanical issue. For as late as he goes, I've been happy to take his word for it, particularly in leagues with an extra middle infield spot to fill.
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I've been waiting like three years for minor-league OPS hog Michael Busch to get his chance, and now that he has it, it's been met with crickets. There's so little interest in him as the Cubs' new first baseman that I can hardly justify the pick in shallower leagues, for as much as I like him. But in deeper leagues, he's all mine.
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