You're going to draft some busts. That's just how Fantasy Baseball works. Try as you might to avoid risks on Draft Day, you're going to end up with some players who might trip up your season. The key to winning, then isn't just in avoiding busts, but in identifying those late-round players who can help you make up for what you losts in the early rounds – and hopefully more.
My favorite kind of players to target when talking about sleepers are the post-hype breakout variety. Scott White broke down some of his favorites here, and you'll find some overlap between that list and my Sleepers 2.0 list below, and for good reason. It's your opportunity to buy in on talented young players at a discounted price because we have a tendency to turn our attention to the shiny new thing when prospects let us down.
Chris' Sleepers 2.0 | Scott's Breakouts | Frank's Busts
Of course, post-hype prospects aren't the only players I'm looking for when I'm looking for sleepers. There's some overlap between my earlier sleepers list – including the first two names! – but this new list is the group I'm feeling even more optimistic about. Here are five hitters and five pitchers you can often find in the later rounds who could make a big impact for you in 2022.
Sleepers 2.0
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There aren't many players with upside at catcher, so if I'm going to wait at the position, I'm going to target a recent top prospect who should be in line for a significant role. Bart hasn't impressed in the majors so far, but he's a career .287/.348/.512 hitter in the minors, so I'm not giving up on the 25-year-old just yet. It's not clear he'll be much of a contributor in batting average, but he could be a nice source of power and run production in that lineup at a position where that can be hard to find.
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There are concerns out there about whether Voit is going to have an everyday role, but I have an awfully hard time believing he's just going to be some kind of part-time player. He's too good for that. Injuries limited him to 68 games last season and hampered his production, but we're still talking about a guy who has hit .271/.363/.520 in 1,133 plate appearances since joining the Yankees in 2018. If he isn't playing everyday for the Yankees, I have to imagine some team is going to try to trade for him to be their DH, and you'll be glad you have Voit around if and when that happens.
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Bohm was being drafted too early last season based on a very small sample size where he showed good contact skills but little else. His price has completely collapsed this draft season, however, and not without reason – he hit just .247 but didn't manage to tap into any more game power like we were hoping. However, there were some positive signs underneath the surface, as Bohm ranked in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity, 90th percentile in hard-hit rate, with an 82nd percentile max exit velocity. The raw power seems to be there, in other words. Now, it's a question of figuring out how to put that into play during games by hitting the ball in the air with authority more. Bohm has a lot to figure out based on how he played last season, but betting on post-hype top prospects who need a swing correction isn't a bad way to spend a late-round pick.
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Vaughn is in a very similar spot to Bohm, except his underlying numbers are even better. Vaughn made the leap to the majors after just 55 combined games in the low minors, after not playing in 2020 and while learning a new position. The degree of difficulty of what he was attempting to accomplish as a 23-year-old rookie was incredibly high, and he has the promising underlying numbers to suggest he's not as far off as he seemed. Vaughn is no sure thing, but if he can find some consistency with his swing, he could be a legitimate four-category contributor, a power hitter who gets on base and doesn't hurt you in batting average. This is another bet on a high-end prospect who flashed promising skills in an overall frustrating season.
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If you can't tell, I'm a big fan of the post-hype breakout candidates. Duran got a lot of hype last offseason based on the prospect of a swing change that would help him unlock power, and that's exactly what we saw in Triple-A, as he hit 16 homers in just 60 games. He couldn't carry that over to the major-league level in his brief opportunities, but the fact that we finally saw him hitting for power should be a big deal, given Duran's stolen base potential – he had 44 in 142 games between Double-A and Triple-A. Power/speed threats tend to cost quite a lot in Fantasy, but Duran's price is imminently reasonable, probably because projection systems don't quite buy the power improvements and there are questions about playing time. However, as I like to say, life finds a way when it comes to playing time issues, and if Duran performs like I think he can, it won't be an issue for long.
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Shoulder injuries are always a concern for pitchers, so Gonsolin carries quite a lot of risk into 2022 after dealing with shoulder inflammation last season. However, he has continued to be very effective whenever he has had the chance to pitch in the majors, totaling a 2.55 ERA with a 1.058 WHIP and 126 strikeouts in 120 innings over 27 career starts. You might not be able to expect more than 150 innings from Gonsolin, but he should be very good when he's out there. And besides, you won't need many innings for him to justify his cost at this point.
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The Marlins have a type: Hard throwers whose fastball is their worst pitch. Cabrera's changeup and slider figure to be weapons for him at the big league level, but he couldn't command his fastball in his brief seven-start cameo in 2021, leading him to get crushed. He'll have to pitch better than that, obviously, but he was still dominant between Double-A and Triple-A last season, with a 2.93 ERA and a 36.9% strikeout rate, so I'm still very optimistic about his chances of figuring this out. There were some prospect folks who thought Cabrera was a better prospect than Sixto Sanchez even before his injury issues, and he's still Scott White's No. 56 prospect for Fantasy this season. Make him a reserve-round stash, especially in deeper leagues.
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The problem with being a pitcher who relies on one great pitch is that your margin for error is pretty slim. Cobb has been lost in the wilderness over the years searching for his changeup/splitter/'thing', but he rediscovered it in 2021, leading to his best numbers since 2017. The Giants have experience with getting the most out of a very similar pitcher in Kevin Gausman, who rode his splitter to new highs over the previous two seasons. Cobb will be backed up by a good defense in a good park to pitch in, and I'm expecting a mid-3.00s ERA, a pretty good WHIP, and better than a strikeout per inning. He's already on a lot of my teams.
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Working primarily in relief, Kopech looked very much like the guy who was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball before Tommy John surgery. His 3.50 ERA was even more impressive when backed up by a 2.83 xERA, and while doing that as a reliever is a lot different than doing it as a starter, it's proof that the stuff works against major leaguers. The question is whether he'll have the opportunity to prove himself as a starter this season and whether the stuff will hold up when he has to throw five-plus innings. Those are fair questions, especially since he was primarily a fastball/slider pitcher – though his changeup and curveball looked good the rare times he threw them. Kopech will need those two pitches to be more than show-me offerings as a starter, most likely, but the foundation is there for him to be a dominant starting pitcher. And, even if Kopech isn't in the rotation all year long, he should be a viable option for ratios and strikeouts, especially in a daily lineup league.
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The Mariners are not short on potential closing options, but I think Giles is going to emerge as the first choice if he's healthy coming off Tommy John surgery. They signed him to a two-year contract last offseason knowing he wouldn't be able to pitch in 2021, so you have to think they did so with the expectation that he would be their closer when healthy. The last time we saw him pitch a full season, he had a 1.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 53 innings in 2019. If he's anything like that guy again, he'll be one of the best closers in Fantasy, and a huge steal in the late rounds.
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