It's not often you can get a presumed starter in a good lineup and ballpark with this kind of pedigree late in your drafts, but there are enough questions about Carter Kieboom in the Fantasy community right now that he is often falling outside of the top 300 on Draft Day. If he hadn't had a disastrous 11-game major-league call-up, Kieboom might be a top-150 pick this year. How much should he be discounted?
Numbers to Know
- Date of Birth: 9/3/1997
- Height: 6'2"
- Weight: 190 lb
- Prospect Ranks: No. 15 at Baseball America, No. 21 at MLB Pipeline, No. 11 at Baseball Prospectus
- Scott White's Rank: No. 9 Fantasy prospect
- 2019: (AAA) .303 BA (412 AB), 16 HR, 24 2B, .902 OPS, 68 BB, 100 K; (MLB) .128 BA (39 AB), 2 HR, .491 OPS, 4 BB, 16 K
- Career: .287 (1259 AB), 45 HR, 79 2B, .847 OPS, 170 BB, 294 K
Known Injury History
Minor leg injury in 2017
Strengths
The headline here is the hit tool, and it was nice to see him produce as a 21-year-old at Triple-A after struggling a bit at Double-A the year before. Given the inflated offensive environment, the .902 OPS isn't quite as impressive as it might seem, but Kieboom still had a 123 wRC+ at the level, so he was solidly above-average. That's probably what you should expect from him across the board, with the exception of stolen bases. Kieboom profiles as a solid contact hitter who runs up strong averages thanks to a balanced swing and developing power. It isn't necessarily a superstar profile, especially for Fantasy, but if it all comes together, you've got a viable starter at shortstop, third base or second, depending on where he ultimately ends up.
Concerns
For someone whose bat has to carry the profile, you wish Kieboom had hit a bit more in the minors. He's been young for every level, but the stat line still feels a little light after watching someone like Keston Hiura dominate in Triple-A a year ago. Kieboom could get there – he's a year younger than Hiura — but the production has to catch up to the scouting reports. A key will be whether the raw power turns into game power.
Outside Take
"If you've enjoyed watching Keston Hiura hit for the last year or so, you'll enjoy Kieboom, whose hands work similarly in the box. The efficient loop they create as they accelerate through the hitting zone enables Kieboom to hook and lift stuff on the inner half, including breaking balls, and he's especially adept at driving stuff away from him out to right. This is a special hitting talent who has performed up through Triple-A as a college-aged shortstop, and Anthony Rendon's departure opens the door for at-bats right away." -Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs.com
Fantasy Comparison
If you're looking for an upside comp, Kris Bryant's 2019 isn't out of the question. 31 homers might be pushing the upper limit of Kieboom's capabilities, though he wouldn't be the first player to break out as a power hitter after exiting his early-20s — something that won't happen for a few more years for Kieboom. As for a 2020 comp, Brian Anderson, but with better teammates, doesn't seem unfair. Anderson had a solid season, sporting a .261/.342/.468 line, but had just 123 runs and RBI combined in 126 games playing for the Marlins. You'll hope for a better batting average, but if he can give you something similar to what Anderson did, 175 R+RBI isn't out of the question, which would be enough to make him a viable starting CI option.
Fantasy Bottom Line
There's probably more upside in Kieboom's profile than his minor-league numbers might lead you to believe, but it also depends on him taking another step forward as a hitter. Right now, he seems like a relatively safe prospect, and a highly undervalued 2020 Fantasy pick. If you wait to fill our your CI spot, Kieboom makes for a terrific late-round upside pick.
So which sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Kenta Maeda's huge breakout last season, and find out.
