College football teams are a lot like people: they're all bound to disappoint you eventually.
I was reminded earlier this week that it happens on a regular basis. Following the release of the preseason AP Top 25 poll, The Athletic's Matt Brown did a breakdown of the history of the poll over the last 29 seasons and found some interesting trends. One of them stood out to me.
Most years, at least one top-10 team turns out to be wildly overrated and finishes the season unranked. That held true for preseason No. 3 Florida State last year and No. 10 Notre Dame in 2016. All 10 preseason top-10 teams have finished the season ranked in the top 25 in 4 of 29 seasons, and as many as four preseason top-10 teams have finished unranked (2002).
To recap, at least one team that began the season in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 poll finished the season unranked in 25 of the previous 29 seasons. If that history is any indication, it means there's an 86 percent chance at least one of the 10 teams currently atop the AP Top 25 poll will finish outside the top 25.
So let's assume that it becomes 26 times in 30 seasons this year. Which team is currently ranked in the top 10 is most likely to fall well short of expectations and disappoint us all? Let's go through all 10 teams and decide the most likely suspect. We'll start with the defending national champions.
1. Alabama: Yeah, I don't see it happening here. That's not to say there aren't some flaws with this Alabama team, it's just that they're minor, and the roster is so deep that it's built to withstand things going wrong. Whether it's players underperforming or injuries.
Alabama hasn't finished a season unranked by the AP since Nick Saban's first season in 2007. The lowest its finished at any point since is No. 10 in 2010 when it was 10-3. So, realistically, you'd have to think Alabama needs to lose at least five games to finish the season outside the top 25. Well, its lost 14 games total in the last 10 seasons.
2. Clemson: If Clemson has a fatal flaw in 2018, it's at the quarterback position. Kelly Bryant was solid, but not spectacular last season. His passer efficiency of 131.73 was only good enough to finish sixth in the ACC last season, and his 13 touchdown passes were fewer than nine other ACC signal callers. While he wasn't a problem, his limitations came to the forefront in Clemson's 24-6 loss to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year.
It's possible that Bryant will lose his gig to Trevor Lawrence, who is a highly-rated recruit but is also a recruit who has never played a college snap. So let's say Bryant continues to be average, and Lawrence proves to be a freshman capable of making all the mistakes you'd expect from a freshman. Is that enough to cause Clemson to freefall out of the top 25?
I don't think so. Sure, its limitations at QB doomed it against Alabama, but you don't play Alabama every week. This team is still the most talented squad in its conference, and it has a defense that will keep it in the game against anybody. I feel like the worst-case scenario here is Clemson misses the College Football Playoff, but it'll finish ranked.
3. Georgia: It isn't insane to think Georgia could suffer a letdown in 2018 following an SEC title and a runner-up finish in the national title race. After all, this is a team that lost two of its biggest weapons on offense in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel and must replace a lot of essential parts on defense. While we all expect Georgia to be one of the stronger programs in the country this season, it doesn't have the lengthy track record of success that Alabama and Clemson have. Therefore, it shouldn't get the same benefit of the doubt.
After all, this is a Georgia program that finished unranked in 2013, 2015 and 2016. That's three times in the last five seasons.
Still, when I look at this team's floor, it's hard to envision it finishing any worse than second in its division. Should that happen, I'd still expect it to be ranked somewhere between 15 and 25, and even then it might be higher as the reigning SEC champ shine might not have worn off in the minds of voters.
4. Wisconsin: Here's where things get interesting. I'm high on Wisconsin this season, but there are some things we should not ignore. First of all, if you look at the teams in this top 10 and how they recruit, Wisconsin is the team with the least talent on its roster. It just doesn't recruit at the same level as these teams. What it does is takes giant mounds of clay overlooked by others and molds them into quality football players.
It has a system, it follows it and it works.
But while this team is going to have a potent offense, it's possible we're all overlooking the losses on defense a bit too easily. Wisconsin finished the 2017 season with 42 sacks, trailing only Ohio State in the Big Ten. Well, 20.5 of them are gone, as the defense returns only four starters. Only one of those returning starters is on the defensive line. Another one is in the secondary. That's a lot of new blood at critical levels of your defense.
As we look further, we see that Wisconsin faces a steep road in 2018 as it will play Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern and Penn State on the road. Finally, this was a team that turned it over 24 times last season. Only Illinois had more turnovers in the Big Ten. The key was that Wisconsin forced more turnovers than any other Big Ten team, but what if those forced turnovers don't come at the same rate and Wisconsin finds itself in tougher spots against a more difficult schedule?
The fact Wisconsin resides in the Big Ten West provides some security, but how much?
5. Ohio State: This is the wild card in this situation. Urban Meyer is suspended for the first three games of the season against Oregon State, Rutgers and TCU. I would imagine Meyer's absence won't have a massive impact on the results of those first two games, as Oregon State and Rutgers aren't likely to pose a significant threat.
That said, it's hard to predict how Meyer's absence will impact the team as it opens the season. This isn't the first time Ohio State's dealt with a situation like this.
In 2010, Ohio State went 12-1 under Jim Tressel, finishing the year at No. 5 in the AP Top 25. Then Tressel was fired following some NCAA problems and was replaced by Luke Fickel. Suddenly, a team that was 12-1 in 2010 became a 6-7 team in 2011. It was the only time Ohio State has finished a season unranked by the AP since 2001.
As far as actual football factors are concerned, we should remember that, even with Meyer returning before the brunt of the conference schedule begins, Ohio State plays in what might be the toughest division in the sport. It not only must play Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State, but it will be playing both Penn State and Michigan State on the road, and also has a nonconference game against TCU. Oh, and it's losing a four-year starter at quarterback in J.T. Barrett. Now, I happen to think Dwayne Haskins has a much higher ceiling as a QB than Barrett did, but he's still an unproven commodity. There's a wide range of possible outcomes in Columbus with what we know right now.
6. Washington: I am incredibly high on Washington this season. It's a team with a senior quarterback, a senior running back, a veteran offensive line and a talented and experienced defense. These are typically things that lead to positive outcomes for a team.
Yes, it must open the season against Auburn, but it gets Stanford at home this year. Outside of that Auburn game, I don't see a time when Washington will be an underdog this year. That's not to say things can't fall apart. Injuries can derail most teams, and if the Huskies were to lose Jake Browning for an extended period, there's not any real experience at QB behind him on the depth chart.
Even then, I respect this defense and offensive line so much -- as well as Chris Petersen -- that I think this team could still muster a 9-3 season out of the situation, and that would likely be good enough to remain ranked.
7. Oklahoma: Listen, Lincoln Riley is considered to be the possible "Next Great Coach" for good reason. He's helped revitalize the Sooners program, and he played a significant role in turning Baker Mayfield into a Heisman Trophy winner who just had two of the greatest seasons by a quarterback in college football history. But Mayfield is gone now, as are a couple of crucial parts of the offensive line and the defense.
Not only will Oklahoma have to replace guys like Mayfield, but it's going to have to change its offensive identity. Kyler Murray is an exceptional athlete, but he brings a much different skill set to the position. While Oklahoma has been an excellent running team the last few years, we're likely to see it rely on the ground game even more in 2018, with Murray playing his role.
Oklahoma also has a challenging schedule, in that it must play nine conference games, and of its three nonconference games, it gets UCLA, an Army team that's a pain in the butt and a talented Florida Atlantic squad. There are possible pitfalls here, but we also have to question if there's anybody in the Big 12 right now that we can rely on to dethrone the Sooners.
8. Miami: There are indeed reasons for concern surrounding the Canes as we enter the 2018 season. While Miami has an impressive football history and has finished each of the last two seasons ranked in the AP Poll, those are the only two seasons it has done so since 2010. Miami has only finished three of the previous 12 seasons in the top 25 (the third season being 2009).
So Miami finishing outside the top 25 wouldn't be an outlier based on recent history.
Furthermore, this is a Miami team that replaces nearly its entire defensive line as well as two starters on the offensive line.
Of course, now that I've said all that, there are other factors we must consider. One of them is that Miami is a very talented team, and it's playing in an ACC Coastal Division that doesn't provide an obvious threat to it. Virginia Tech is the most likely adversary, but the Hokies have plenty of questions that need to be answered themselves. So, try as I might, even if I look at the scenarios where Miami disappoints in 2018, I don't see them being bad enough to finish unranked unless the bottom completely falls out.
9. Auburn: The Tigers won the SEC West last season, pulling off wins against both Alabama and Georgia. Is it possible that those two wins covered up some flaws Auburn had shown earlier in the season and then showed us again during a loss to UCF in the Peach Bowl? Is it possible that's causing us to overestimate this team a bit in 2018?
Maybe!
Let's look at what we know. First of all, Auburn still must play in the SEC West, which isn't always a lot of fun for those involved. It's even less fun when you're replacing four starters on your offensive line, which is precisely what Auburn will be doing in 2018. Oh, and Auburn has a schedule that includes Washington to open the season as well as road games against Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama.
It's not crazy to think that we could see four losses out of Auburn in those games alone. That would leave it at 8-4 at best, and odds are 8-4 would have Auburn closer to the bottom of the AP Poll than the top. If that's the case and Auburn should happen to lose its bowl game (likely against another Power Five opponent), it would suddenly be 8-5 and likely on the outside of the poll looking in.
10. Penn State: We have plenty of questions that must be answered concerning Penn State. After all, it wasn't that long ago that the Penn State offense seemed rather pedestrian under James Franklin, even with Saquon Barkley rushing for over 1,000 yards as a freshman in 2015. In stepped new offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead and the Penn State offense took off.
Well, Moorhead is gone, as is Barkley. In their place are the unproven Ricky Rahne, and the talented Miles Sanders.
On defense, Penn State has only three returning starters. Seven of its eight leading tacklers from 2017 are gone. The Nittany Lions will have a brand new secondary in 2018.
Oh, and it plays in the Big Ten East where it must contend with Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. It also draws Wisconsin as part of its cross-divisional draw.
Even if Penn State gets three of those four games at home (Michigan is on the road), it's not out of the question that it could lose those four games.
So who is it going to be?
After going through the list of the 10 teams, there are four who stand out to me, and three of them come from the Big Ten. I think our most likely suspects are No. 4 Wisconsin, No. 5 Ohio State, No. 9 Auburn and No. 10 Penn State.
As mentioned above, thanks to Urban Meyer's three-game suspension, Ohio State is a major wild card here. Still, I expect the Buckeyes to get through that stretch at 2-1 at worst, and while Meyer won't be able to be on the sideline for the first three games, his suspension will only keep him out of practice and contact with the team through the opener against Oregon State. He'll be able to run practices after that. So, even if there's a real possibility, I still don't see Ohio State having a season bad enough to fall out of the rankings.
That leaves Wisconsin, Auburn and Penn State, and of those three, I'm leaning toward Penn State. Now, keep in mind I picked Penn State to win the East in our recent Big Ten predictions, so I'm not expecting it to happen. It's just that if it was going to happen to one of these top 10 teams, I think it would happen more often to Penn State than the other nine options.
It's a team that has a wide range of possible outcomes based on the unknown variables.
