UConn to the Big 12 is the perfect offseason story. Spoiler alert: the prospect of such a move is going to extend into the football season.
It has to. Commissioner Brett Yormark will not stand still. He is advocating for UConn while the biggest Big 12 ever (16 teams) kicks off for the first time. At the same time, Yormark has to balance the prospect of naming rights, the House v. NCAA settlement and revenue sharing, all of which will impact his league.
If UConn happens, it might be the first Power Five expansion based on basketball. While UConn is an undisputed men's and women's basketball brand, football just does not pull its weight. Not yet.
That's why the Big 12 expanding to a 17th team perhaps as soon as 2026 remains a contentious subject to some within the league. Football has and will continue to drive realignment.
Talks have been going on for a while but have intensified lately; Big 12 presidents were briefed on UConn on Monday.
What's next?
Does Yormark have the votes?
It's not clear, but at this stage, indications are that he does not. That's what Monday's presentation was about. Any such expansion requires a "super majority" of Big 12 presidents voting in favor of expansion. That is, at least 12 of the 16 schools must approve. Discussions are ongoing, but it's worth mentioning that Baylor president Linda Livingstone is the current Big 12 chair of the conference board of directors and the chair of the NCAA Board of Directors. What she thinks matters. CBS Sports reported Monday the current count is 6-2 in favor of the move. That two against might be a conservative estimate. Sources have indicated a handful of schools are either outright "no" votes or highly skeptical of the proposition at this stage.
A reminder, it only takes five votes to nix the move. Additionally, Yormark is trying to steer this issue amid a new group of presidents who don't fully align on this topic. Expansion is always a hot-button issue. Yormark is trying to work his pitch while avoiding disagreement as the Big 12 debuts with 16 teams in the latest era of profound transformation in college athletics.
If Yormark doesn't have the votes, there probably won't be a vote. That's what the next few weeks about -- presidents sharing information with their ADs and administrators to come up with an institutional opinion. Ideally, any commissioner would want a unanimous vote to assure alignment in the conference. Even though the presidents have the vote on this issue, it would be advantageous for Yormark to have total alignment. That means president and athletic director across the Big 12 board agree to bring in UConn.
Compare the UConn discussion to the naming rights initiative. CBS Sports has confirmed the Big 12 is deep into discussions with a naming rights partner -- reportedly Allstate -- that has the full support of the conference.
"What he's doing is great for the Big 12," one school administrator from the league said of Yormark. "He's got more ideas and initiatives than any commissioner in the country. I support him 100% on the Connecticut opportunity."
Is UConn worth it?
In terms of basketball? Absolutely. The UConn men are going for a three-peat and arguably have the face of the sport in Dan Hurley. The women are a national power, led by an all-time great coach in Geno Auriemma. The finances are another issue, however. When UCF, BYU, Cincinnati and Houston came into the league last year, the "Legacy Eight" -- those schools left after Texas and Oklahoma departed for the SEC -- pitched in to fund their move. Those four schools won't get a full share ($31.7 million annually) until next year. For some reason, the Four Corners schools -- Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah -- did get a full share beginning this year. Big 12 schools probably aren't interested in funding UConn basketball's entry into the league in 2026. The term "revenue neutral" has been tossed around in regards to financial impact on the existing 16 teams but nothing has been finalized. The league continues to be in deep discussions with several private equity sources.
What those in favor of the move are saying
They believe in Yormark's ability to maximize the league's brand and earning power. If he says UConn delivers New York to what used to be the Pure Prairie League, then they believe it. If he says UConn football will make the league better, they believe it. Yormark's ultimate credibility comes from his ability to sign a new media deal ahead of the Pac-12 in October 2022. If not, it might have been the Big 12 dying instead of the Pac-12.
What those against the move are saying
It's too much, too fast. The league hasn't even played a season with 16 teams. The Big 12 doesn't necessarily need UConn in basketball. It is already the No. 1 basketball conference, having rated No. 1 at KenPom.com in nine of the past 11 seasons.
There would be travel issues so far flung in the Northeast. Access issues with the College Football Playoff haven't been fully determined. Some are concerned about how UConn football would impact strength of schedule.
"All the sudden you play another traditionally poor football program," one administrator said.
That's a big deal because of a strength of schedule metric revealed recently by a CFP selection committee member. The committee has access to information that ranks strength of opponents in four categories: green, light green, orange and red, with red being the worst. Any FCS opponent is automatically rated a red -- whether it be North Dakota State or Northwestern State. The Big 12 plays 11 such games this first weekend. The SEC, for example, plays only six FCS opponents.
What about network partners?
Fox is in a precarious position. UConn bolting for the Big 12 would unquestionably devalue the Big East deal with Fox that was signed just two months ago, which runs through the 2031-32 season.
Not to mention, Fox -- and ESPN --- would then have to adjust the Big 12 contract to accommodate UConn basketball. And it should be pointed out, these networks are sensitive to being perceived as the reason a conference is diminished or breaks up. (In this case, the Big East.)
Fox is only one of three Big East partners, with NBC and TNT being the others. All three would be impacted with the loss of the league's No. 1 brand.
CBS Sports has reported that ESPN, which lost the Big Ten, would be in favor of the addition. UConn basketball would be a ratings winner, plus the Huskies' campus is only 14 miles away. ESPN began in 1979 showing the likes of local sports from Central Connecticut State just to get stuff on the air.
ESPN partnered with the Big East at that time to create a basketball giant. UConn basketball back on ESPN would be sort of a homecoming. That doesn't mean Big 12 expansion couldn't happen. Networks have been against expansion before and been persuaded to move ahead.
UConn's brand is in the eye of the beholder
Yormark believes UConn delivers at least a part of the Northeast corridor, specifically the New York area. Try to envision the Big 12 Tournament one day being played at the Barclay's Center in Brooklyn. However, there's the football piece that is supposed to deliver the bulk of any media rights deal.
Even without UConn, public equity giant CVS has estimated the next Big 12 media rights deal will at least double when the current deal, worth $2.3 billion overall, expires in 2031. By then, Big 12 schools will be collecting $50 million per team. (That total includes bowl, CFP and NCAA Tournament revenue).
It has already been hinted at by one league administrator that UConn football could come into to the Big 12 at a reduced rate. In the past, West Virginia, Rutgers, Stanford, Cal and SMU have moved to power conferences at reduced rates.
During its presentation, sources indicated UConn has made the financial commitment to get the program up to Power Four standards. What that means beyond facilities isn't exactly clear. No dollar figure was mentioned. UConn also has the delicate matter of being heavily subsidized by the state of Connecticut in what has been a budget-strapped state. That has given pause to some Big 12 administrators.
No attendance minimum was demanded by the Big 12. UConn would also have to get a collective that can compete in NIL. It would have at least think about funding the $23 million annual revenue share that is expected to come from the House settlement. It's not clear if all the existing Big 12 schools will fully fund revenue sharing.
Essentially, the idea is for UConn not to embarrass the league in football but rather be respectable and middle-of-the-pack competitive in the Big 12 by 2031.
This is basically Temple in reverse. The school was kicked out of the Big East in 2004 because it didn't commit fully to football. Over these next seven years, UConn has to show the Big 12 what it can achieve.
Competing as an independent, the Huskies are 10-27 in the last three seasons. They are 19-66 overall since the beginning of 2016.
The Florida State/Clemson factor
Any future realignment nationally has to account for what happens -- or doesn't happen -- in the ACC. Florida State and Clemson are both suing the conference to get out. Whether they are successful remains to be seen.
But with the SEC and Big Ten not being interested in Florida State at least, could the schools end up in the Big 12? It's likely the network partners would pay for such a move, but that's not really the issue. FSU isn't worth pro rata (equal value) in both the SEC ($60 million annually) or Big Ten ($75 million annually).
FSU's stated goal is to get closer to the $30 million-$40 million that separates it from the "Big Two" conferences. It's doubtful whatever it can extract from the Big 12 gets them that much closer. Plus, how is a Seminoles fan going to react having to play mid-November games in the tropical Ames, Iowa?
How the Big 12 delivers
There is something to be said for the Big 12 being at the end of its deal in 2031 and being able to plan ahead for its next iteration. The league has always re-upped with an extension during its existing deal.
This is a chance for a total makeover. Yormark has long said he desires to "bifurcate" football and basketball. Those two sports are always bundled together with every other sport in media rights deals. Yorkmark believes there is value in negotiating a separate basketball deal. Critics claim that if the sports were separated, the football deal would simply be valued minus basketball -- that is, 15% less than what it would be worth with basketball. (Basketball is typically worth 15%-20% of any media rights deal.)
Basically, Yormark is betting that folks will pay more for basketball in the future. He might be right. Think of the increased value of UConn-Kansas, UConn-Baylor, UConn-Iowa State, UConn-Houston playing in the same conference. As of right now, if any of those games were shipped to streaming, fan bases would shriek.
But the NFL is already headed that way with Thursday Night Football and playoff games going to a streaming. The thinking in the industry is that streaming is going to hit sports in a big way before the current deal expires in 2031, it just remains a matter of when. Yormark is tight with NBA commissioner Adam Silver, whose league just signed a $76 billion monster deal that includes streaming.
Playing the field
If this is all about the Big 12 remaking itself -- and it is -- any analysis has to include a look at 2031. The Big 12 won't have much competition for its media rights when it comes to market.
Specifically, only the Big East and NASCAR -- among major rights holders -- will be in competition seven years from now.
That translates to favorable economics for the Big 12 (more money available) if there are only a handful of leagues needing to renegotiate deals.
