The new season is here. We were handed a small appetizer plate in Week 0, but this week, it's an unending, infinite-course meal of football. When it comes to betting on outcomes, we all want to get off to a fast start, but the first week of the year presents challenges.
We think we know who these teams are, but we don't. It adds a layer of mystery to figuring out how games will go, particularly in this age of the transfer portal. Some teams may be filled with experienced players, but how much is that experience worth when it was all with a different team?
But we aren't the only ones working with incomplete information! The sportsbooks don't know everything yet, either! Just look at what happened last week. Not only did all four underdogs cover the spread, they covered by an average of 15.5 points. So, how should we approach Week 1 knowing this? No differently than we would any other week.
Make the plays you're confident in, and that's precisely what I'm doing with these six games.
Odds via SportsLine consensus
Games of the Week
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 14 Clemson: You have to love a matchup of two programs considered favorites to win their own conference right out the gate, which is what we have here. Georgia comes into the game after a disappointing season that saw the two-time national champions lose the SEC Championship Game to Alabama and get left out of the College Football Playoff. Clemson is coming off its worst season in more than a decade. The Tigers won only nine games last season, failing to win 10 games for the first time since going 6-7 in 2010.
The problem for Clemson is that while I have high hopes for it this season -- I picked the Tigers to win the ACC -- this is a difficult matchup at a bad time. I've never been a fan of QB Cade Klubnik, and it's hard for me to trust him against this Georgia defense. On the other side, there's QB Carson Beck and one of the best offensive lines in the country. One of the few offensive lines out there I believe can mitigate the damage done by the Clemson defensive line. I don't think the Bulldogs blow the Tigers out, but I don't believe the Tigers will score enough to keep it within this number. Pick: Georgia -13.5 (-105)
No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M: A big game for both teams. Notre Dame comes into the season with the goal of reaching the College Football Playoff, and a road win against the Aggies will look good on the résumé. Texas A&M isn't likely to win the SEC, but a win over Notre Dame would help their at-large prospects. So who's going to win? I really don't know! Both squads have new offensive coordinators. Mike Denbrock returns to the Fighting Irish after turning Jayden Daniels into a Heisman winner, and Collin Klein was one of new coach Mike Elko's biggest hires for the Aggies.
While those are two excellent offensive coordinators, I expect the defenses will have the best of it here. Notre Dame was already replacing its starting offensive tackles before Charles Jagusah, the expected replacement at left tackle, went down for the season. That's a significant loss at any time, but in this matchup against a defense that added DL Nic Scourton in the portal this offseason, it could be a serious issue. Plus, is there a coach with a better idea of how to stop the new Notre Dame quarterback, Riley Leonard, than the man who coached him at Duke? Then there's the Notre Dame defense, which will once again be one of the best in the country. I don't think it's going to be a fun day for either offense here. Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)
Lock of the Week
Wyoming at Arizona State: The 2023 season was a tough one for Arizona State. The Sun Devils finished 3-9 in Kenny Dillingham's first season. I anticipate improvement this year, but how much? Wyoming will not be an easy test for Sparky. The Cowboys have a new coach, Jay Sawvel, but he's been the defensive coordinator in Laramie since 2020 and knows what he has to work with and what's worked for this program in recent years.
I'm also intrigued by Wyoming QB Evan Svoboda, a big boy at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds with a big arm, and the coaching staff is high on his potential heading into 2024. He'll be facing an Arizona State defense that was pretty awful last year, finishing No. 122 nationally in points allowed per possession, No. 118 in success rate and No. 106 in EPA per snap. A bad defense and an offense led by an inexperienced, young QB in Sam Leavitt isn't typically the kind of combination I'm looking to bet as a favorite. Pick: Wyoming +7 (-110)
Persecuted Team of the Week
Fresno State at No. 9 Michigan: There are a million questions surrounding Michigan as we enter the season, with some off the field but plenty on it. A new coaching staff, nearly an entire new depth chart on the offensive side of the ball, and the looming specter of possible NCAA penalties. Well, if last year was an indicator, Michigan will not be afraid to use any of the controversy as motivation to go out there and kick somebody's butt. This matchup will provide the chance to do so.
Unlike Texas, which isn't likely to put much on tape a week ahead of next week's game in Ann Arbor, Michigan will have motivation to keep playing. We still don't know who the team's starting QB is, and I won't be surprised if this game continues to be an audition for Alex Orji and Davis Warren. (Read more on that competition HERE from Brandon Marcello.) If Michigan builds an early lead, I don't expect the dogs to be called off, and even if it doesn't build a giant lead, how many points are you realistically expecting Fresno State to score against the Wolverines defense? I'll remind you that Jeff Tedford, one of the best coaches in the sport, stepped away due to medical reasons this offseason. Pick: Michigan -20.5 (-118)
Hot Seat Game of the Week
No. 19 Miami at Florida: This game will be played in The Swamp, but beneath that dark, murky water is a nuclear bomb of narratives ready to explode and infect anybody within a 750-mile radius. Neither one of the coaches, Billy Napier or Mario Cristobal, can afford to lose this game. Napier's already on one of the hottest seats in the country, and if Miami loses, Cristobal will soon join him.
But that has nothing to do with my pick. No, I'm holding my nose and taking the Gators for a few different reasons. One is that there's been so much talk about Napier and Florida's impossible schedule this year that many people think the Gators are a bad team. Really, they just have a brutal road to travel. The other side is that Miami struggled with turnovers last season, and while there's plenty of hype surrounding transfer QB Cam Ward, he isn't exactly careful with the football! Of 200 QBs to average at least five pass attempts per game last year, Ward ranked No. 156 with a Whoopsy Daisy Rate (fumbled and interceptions per snap) of 2.56%. He will put the ball at risk. Considering this is his first start with a new team, and it's a loud, raucous environment, there's a good chance he'll take a chance or two too many here. Pick: Florida +2.5 (+100)
Team Total of the Week
North Dakota State at Colorado (Thursday): The only weeknight play in this week's column is based primarily on common sense. Whatever you think about Deion Sanders, or everything going on at Colorado, the fact of the matter is Shedeur Sanders is a talented QB with plenty of talent around him on offense. And while the overall hype may not match the final win total for the Buffs, this is a game they should win. This is not the North Dakota State dynasty of recent vintage. It's still a good team, but not the juggernaut it was for a while.
He's not called "Coach Prime" because he doesn't want to put on a show. In the season-opener, at home, in a spotlight game the nation will be watching, expect Colorado to put on a show. And if they get a chance to run it up a little, you better bet they're going to run it up a little. If either Sanders or Travis Hunter are going to make their way to New York for the Heisman ceremony in December, they'll need to post the numbers to do so in case the team's overall record isn't strong enough. Pick: Colorado Team Total Over 35.5 (-115)
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 1? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $2,000 in profit since its inception -- and find out.
