The No. 12 Texas Longhorns remain among the favorites for the Big 12 title, but their journey could be derailed Saturday if they slip up against a persistent nemesis in Oklahoma State. Kickoff in the conference opener for both clubs is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Royal Texas Memorial Stadium. The Cowboys (3-0) have won the past three meetings in this series, including a 38-35 upset in Stillwater last season. The Longhorns (2-1) survived that defeat and still moved on to the conference title game, where they lost to Oklahoma. But another defeat would likely spell doom for their College Football Playoff hopes and put them in an early deficit in the Big 12 title race. The Longhorns are 7-point favorites and the over-under for total points scored is 72.5 in the latest Texas vs. Oklahoma State odds. Before finalizing your Texas vs. Oklahoma State picks, make sure you see the college football predictions from SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel.
A Nevada-based handicapper with more than 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in collegiate athletics and was SportsLine's top college football analyst last year. What's more, he has had a keen sense for the pulse of these Big 12 programs, evidenced by a stunning 17-4 record on against the spread picks involving the Cowboys or Longhorns over the past two seasons.
Last season, Nagel told SportsLine members to back an inspired Texas (+13.5) club in the Sugar Bowl against a Georgia team that was prime for a letdown after it was left out of the playoff. The Longhorns dominated from the outset and held on for an outright 28-21 victory. Anyone who followed Nagel's advice booked an easy winner and those who have consistently followed him are way up.
Now, he has zeroed in on Texas vs. Oklahoma State from every angle and released a point-spread selection that he's only sharing over at SportsLine.
Nagel knows Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger has quietly produced at a level that already compares to the greatest college football signal-callers in recent memory. The junior could also be well on his way to setting almost every major program record at Texas. His 677 combined passing yards through the first two games of the season are the most in a two-game span in program history.
Last year, he accounted for 41 touchdowns, with 16 of them coming on the ground to break Vince Young's school record. In doing so, he joined Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson as the only signal-callers in college football history to notch 25 passing and 15 rushing touchdowns in a season.
Still, the Longhorns are far from a sure thing to cover the Texas vs. Oklahoma State spread against an OSU club that comes in with three straight victories in the series.
Coach Mike Gundy's spread offense, filled with misdirection and deception, has given the Longhorns fits in recent meetings. In last year's 38-35 home victory as 3.5-point underdogs, they racked up 502 yards of total offense on their way to 31 first-half points.
With running back Justice Hill in the NFL and the loss of several other playmakers, many observers expected a rebuilding year for the Cowboys. Instead, they are among the top 10 nationally in almost every major offensive category. Sophomore running back Chuba Hubbard leads in the country in rushing yards at 521 and is coming off a career-best 256 yards on 32 carries against Tulsa.
We can tell you Nagel is leaning under, and he's also identified the critical x-factor that has him all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing it at SportsLine.
Who wins Oklahoma State vs. Texas? And what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Oklahoma State vs. Texas spread you should jump on Saturday, all from the seasoned CFB expert who has hit 81 percent of his spread picks on these teams, and find out.
