Luck never gets the credit it deserves. Whenever we experience success, we like to say it's because we worked harder than everybody else, we were smarter or any number of reasons we can find to make ourselves look better. Only when we fail or somebody else succeeds do we invoke luck.
Luck plays a huge role in every part of our lives. Hell, had a meteor not randomly found the Earth in its path 66 million years ago, we wouldn't be here in the first place. Should another one find its way here, whatever species replaces us will probably feel the same about themselves as we do now.
It plays an enormous role in a football season, too. Yes, every season, there are truly elite teams that don't need as much luck to be successful, but they'll damn sure take any they can get because sometimes, those great teams' seasons are destroyed by bad luck. On the other side, some teams are far luckier than they realize and enjoy fantastic seasons. Then, they are shocked when they don't enjoy the same amount of luck the next season and come crashing back down to Earth.
Remember TCU in 2022?
The Horned Frogs went 6-1 in one-score games that season and reached the College Football Playoff Championship Game. Winning that many one-score contests takes more than luck -- good coaching and game management help, too -- but when you're involved in a lot of close games, any play can change the outcome, including the bounce of an oblong ball. So, for the Horned Frogs to go 6-1 in those games despite a turnover margin of only +1 suggests that they made timely plays when it mattered and were on the right side of plenty of coinflips.
The fact they followed it up with a 5-7 mark and didn't reach a bowl game in 2023 suggests the luck ran out.
TCU is an extreme case of what can go right and wrong for any team. It's also an example of why we should be a bit more skeptical of some teams who may have benefitted from more than their fair share of luck last year, and why we should be more bullish on those routinely dealt a bad hand.
Here are a few teams that could see the scales balance out this season.
Teams due for some better luck
Kansas State: The Wildcats finished 9-4 last year (6-3 in the Big 12), but went 1-4 in one-score games. Those four losses were 30-27 at Missouri, 29-21 at Oklahoma State, 33-30 at Texas and 42-35 at home to Iowa State. Only in the Oklahoma State loss did Kansas State make stupid mistakes, as they turned the ball over three times. Of the 50 teams to play at least four one-score games last season, Kansas State's Whoopsy Daisy Rate (INT+Fumbles/Snaps) of 2.62% was the 15th-best. Only two of the 14 teams with a lower WDR finished with losing records in one-score games (Arizona State and Baylor).
TCU: I mentioned TCU was an extreme example of what can go right and wrong, and the luck swung hard in the other direction last season. After going 6-1 in 2022, the Frogs went 0-4 in one-score games last season. They were outscored by only 16 points total in those losses, three of the four (Colorado, West Virginia and Texas) were all by three points -- the other loss was 35-28 on the road to Texas Tech. And, get this: the Frogs were 2-for-7 on field goal attempts in those games, including 0-for-5 in the losses to Colorado, West Virginia and Texas Tech. Their opponents went 7-for-9.
Texas A&M: The Aggies can't blame it all on luck, but they did go 0-4 in one-score games last season -- and did so against strong competition. All four losses came to teams ranked at the time, though only one (at Ole Miss) was a loss of less than a touchdown. Three of the four (Tennessee, Ole Miss and Oklahoma State) were on the road. The Aggies lost 26-20 at home to Alabama in a game that saw them score only one touchdown in four red zone trips and miss a field goal.
Virginia: The Hoos were 2-5 in one-score games last year. They certainly had some luck, but the losses were especially painful. They lost by a point to James Madison and suffered three-point losses to NC State, at Boston College and at Miami. They also lost at Louisville by a touchdown. They finished with a point differential of -75 in conference play, but that number is skewed heavily by a 28-point loss to Georgia Tech and a 38-point loss to rival Virginia Tech.
Teams due for the luck to run out
Louisville: The Cardinals drew a favorable schedule and took full advantage in Jeff Brohm's first season. They also benefitted from the favor of the football gods, as they finished 5-1 in one-score games despite an overall turnover margin of -1 in those six games. Four wins came on the road in close calls against Georgia Tech, Indiana, NC State and Miami, while the lone loss was 38-31 at home to rival Kentucky.
Missouri: The Tigers are a popular playoff pick for many this season, and while I understand why, there are reasons for skepticism. They were 4-0 in one-score games last year. Of course, the Tigers made some of their own luck by taking care of the football in those games. Their 0.78% Whoopsy Daisy Rate in one-score games was outstanding, and their mark of 1.83% on the season ranked sixth nationally. Still, while nobody looks down on a three-point win over Kansas State, the four-point win over Middle Tennessee, seven-point win over Memphis and two-point win over Florida (all at home), the narrow scope of those victories should raise an eyebrow or two.
Northwestern: The Wildcats had one of the wildest seasons in recent memory. After replacing Pat Fitzgerald shortly before the season began, Northwestern exceeded everyone's expectations, but it seems they had plenty of help. The Cats were 6-2 in one-score games, and their six wins are more than all but one team (whom we'll get to shortly) had last year. What Northwestern did especially well in those games was take care of the football, as they finished with a turnover margin of +11 and gave the ball away only five times in those eight games. Five wins came during the regular season. Of those five victories, three (Minnesota, Howard and at Illinois) were by a field goal or less. Generally speaking, the more one-score games you play, the closer your record should be to .500 in those games, so the Wildcats went 6-2 when they probably should've been 4-4.
Ole Miss: Another SEC team getting plenty of playoff love that had some luck on its side last year. Like Missouri, the Rebels went 4-0 in one-score games. There was the 55-49 win over LSU, 27-20 over Arkansas, 28-21 over Auburn, and 38-35 over Texas A&M. The primary difference between Ole Miss and Missouri in my eyes is that only one of those wins was by a field goal or fewer. I don't know that Ole Miss was lucky last year as much as its defense allowed opponents to hang around, and the Rebels did a lot of work to address that side of the ball this offseason. I'm including them here because of their 4-0 record, but if you were to ask me which one of these lucky teams was in the best shape to continue being lucky in 2024, I'd take the Rebels.
Washington: Washington went 8-0 in one-score games last season. Only Old Dominion (11) was in more, and of the eight teams to play in at least eight, Washington was the only one to win more than six, let alone all of them. While we'll all remember the two Oregon wins and the 37-31 win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl, we shouldn't forget the close calls against Arizona State and Washington State, either. This team lived on the edge quite often last year, but if regression comes in 2024, it won't be solely due to luck. Nearly all the key components from the Huskies squad that reached the title game -- including the coaching staff -- are gone. Toss in a move to the Big Ten, and that's a lot of offseason change for one program to handle. If the Huskies are to return to the playoffs in 2024, they'll need a lot more luck than they got in 2023.
