After a horrid start to the 2018-19 college football bowl season, I bounced back a little last week, going 3-3 in my picks. Of course, after a 0-4 start, that still leaves me at 3-7, so it's not like there's much to celebrate at the moment.
There are still a couple of weeks left to the season, however, which provides me with an opportunity to end the campaign on a high note. Plus, this week there are games to pick that you might actually watch even if you didn't have money on them.
Let's get to it.
Games of the Week
Orange Bowl -- No. 4 Oklahoma (+14) vs. No. 1 Alabama: It's a battle of two fanbases I have angered quite a bit this season. I caught the ire of Oklahoma fans when I wrote that I didn't want Oklahoma to reach the College Football Playoff because its defense is so bad it'd be impossible for the Sooners to win two games. Oklahoma fans then responded to this by saying that, like all writers at CBS Sports, I am a puppet for the SEC suckling at Nick Saban's teat. When I explained my 2018 Heisman Trophy vote for Kyler Murray, it was Alabama fans who then rose up, telling me I was just jealous of Alabama's success, and like every member of the college football media, I was biased against the Tide due to that jealousy. So, you know, I can do no wrong here.
Well, while I may have written that Oklahoma can't win the CFP, that doesn't mean I don't think the Sooners can cover this spread. Because they can do just that Their offense is simply too good, and it's the kind of offense that has proven to give Saban teams fits during this Alabama dynasty. The question is how many times can Oklahoma stop the Alabama offense, and I'm under the impression that the answer to it is "not nearly often enough." Still, a two-touchdown spread is a lot, and with Tua Tagovailoa not being 100 percent, it's hard to envision Alabama just routing this Oklahoma team. Alabama 38, Oklahoma 28
Cotton Bowl -- No. 3 Notre Dame (+13) vs. No. 2 Clemson: There's been a tendency among fans and media alike to assume Notre Dame has no shot here. I don't know if it's due to the memories of what happened to the Irish against Alabama in 2012, or if it's just the fact that they didn't face a tough schedule over the latter half of the season, or maybe it's a combination of factors. All I know is that when I talk to anybody about these two semifinal games, while some will tell you it'll be interesting to see how Alabama's defense fares against the Oklahoma offense, nearly everyone looks at the Cotton Bowl as a foregone conclusion. And I plan on taking advantage of that.
Like most people, I expect Clemson will beat Notre Dame more often than not in this game. But unlike most, I do not think it will be a blowout. I think these two teams are far more similar than most people realize, though Clemson is better offensively. Both are terrific defensively, but Notre Dame's better on special teams, and that's something too many people overlook in these matchups. Like many of you, I believe we're destined for yet another title game between Alabama and Clemson, but I don't think the Tigers will have the easiest time getting there. Clemson 31, Notre Dame 23
Lock of the Week
Pinstripe Bowl -- Wisconsin (+3) vs. Miami: Motivation plays a significant impact in bowl games. During the regular season, you're generally dealing with two teams who want to be there and win the game. That's not always the case in bowl games. Sometimes teams just want the season to be over with which brings me to Miami. The Hurricanes are a team that began the season ranked No. 8 in both major preseason polls, entertaining the idea of a possible ACC title and maybe even a berth in the College Football Playoff. Instead, they enter this game at 7-5 and unranked. They also enter this game with their defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, preparing to leave for the Temple job. When you consider that Miami's defense has been the one thing that's kept this team afloat all season long, that seems like a bit of a problem.
Oh, and if that's not enough, there are rumors of unrest in the locker room. Oh, and it's possible N'Kosi Perry will be suspended for this game. Oh, and Miami's leading receiver Jeff Thomas has already announced he's transferring to Illinois. Oh, and the current forecast says it'll be cloudy with temperatures in the upper-30s. How excited do you think Miami will be to play in this game? I'm guessing not very. Wisconsin 27, Miami 17
Private School of the Week
Texas Bowl -- Baylor (+4) vs. Vanderbilt: You know, Baylor improved from 1-11 last year to 6-6 this season. It was quite an impressive turnaround for Matt Rhule in his second season with the Bears, but not many people seemed to notice it. Now it will play in its home state against a Vanderbilt team that shouldn't be overlooked, but is also a team that I'm not convinced should be considered four points better than the Bears. I have some concerns about Jalen Hurd not playing in this game for Baylor, but the real key will be Baylor's rushing attack against a Vanderbilt run defense that limits big plays but still allowed nearly 5 yards per carry this season. Vanderbilt 27, Baylor 24
Under of the Week
Belk Bowl -- Virginia vs. South Carolina (Under 53.5): South Carolina has had difficulty stopping the run this season, but that's what makes this such an interesting matchup because Virginia is a team that loves to run the ball, but it's more of a team that looks to wear you down with it than pick up big chunk plays. All of which means that the clock will seldom stop and continue to click. In fact, Virginia loves to take its time on offense, which is one of the reasons I'm so fond of taking the under in Virginia games. As for South Carolina, the Gamecocks have been more explosive on offense than the Cavaliers have, but a lot of that was due to a passing attack that will be without its greatest weapon in Deebo Samuel. I'm thinking the Gamecocks might find life a bit more difficult without him. So expect something of a rock fight in Charlotte. South Carolina 24, Virginia 17
Group of Five Game of the Week
Arizona Bowl -- Nevada (+1.5) vs. Arkansas State: I can't help but think this line is partially a reaction to Nevada's season-ending loss to UNLV. It was a bad loss and one that was out of character for the Wolf Pack. This is a team that finished the season 7-5, but before the UNLV loss, its four losses had come to Vanderbilt, Toledo, Fresno State, and Boise State. All of which were respectable losses. Then there's Arkansas State, which doesn't have a bad loss on its resume, but it finished the season on a four-game win streak against teams like South Alabama, Coastal Carolina, UL-Monroe and Texas State. The highest ranked team amongst that group according to S&P+ is UL-Monroe at No. 98. Having seen both of these teams a few times during the 2018 season, it was Nevada who left a better impression upon me than the Red Wolves, and I think the Wolf Pack is being underestimated with this line. Plus, when it comes to bowl season, motivation matters, and I know Nevada will be pumped up to play in its first bowl since 2015. This will be the first bowl game for most of the players on the roster. Nevada 31, Arkansas State 28
| Last Week | Season | |
|---|---|---|
Game(s) of the Week | 2-3 | 17-18-2 |
Lock of the Week | 1-0 | 7-9 |
Overall | 3-3 | 46-46-2 |
