Penn State vs. Illinois odds: Model on 10-3 roll locks in 2018 college football picks, predictions

Our advanced computer model simulated Friday's Illinois vs. Penn State game 10,000 times

Friday in Champaign, the Illinois Fighting Illini host the No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions at 9 p.m. ET. While the 2-1 Illini look to pull off the huge upset as home underdogs, the Lions must keep winning to snatch a coveted invite to the 2018-19 College Football Playoff. Illinois blew a 12-point, second-half lead to South Florida last week in a 25-19 loss, while the Nittany Lions rolled to a 63-10 win over Kent State to raise their record to 3-0.

Penn State is favored by 28, up a tick from an open of 27.5. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has held steady at 60. Before you make any Penn State vs. Illinois picks, check out what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. In past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors. It made some huge calls in Week 3 of the 2018 season as well, nailing BYU against the spread (+23.5) and on the money line (+950) against Wisconsin, as well as LSU against the spread (+10) and on the money line (+315) at Auburn. 

It finished the week a blistering 31-16 against the spread overall and nailed 10 of its 13 top-ranked picks. Anybody following it finished way, way up.

Now, the model has simulated Penn State vs. Illinois 10,000 times to produce strong against-the-spread and Over-Under picks. We can tell you the Under hits in 64 percent of simulations, but the model also has generated a point-spread selection that hits nearly 55 percent of the time. This pick is available only at SportsLine. 

The model knows the Lions are riding a wave of momentum after knocking off the Golden Flashes. Senior quarterback Trace McSorley is a run-pass threat each time he handles the ball. For the season, he has five touchdown tosses and six rushing TDs.

While McSorley can air it out on game day, Penn State prefers to keep the ball on the ground, amassing huge chunks of yardage. Against Kent State, it racked up a whopping 297 yards and six rushing touchdowns while averaging 6.6 yards per carry. While Saquon Barkley is wowing his New York Giants teammates, running back Miles Sanders has filled in admirably. Last week, he toted the pigskin 14 times for 86 yards and picked up three receptions for 30 more.

Just because Penn State has been hot doesn't mean it'll cover a four-touchdown spread, especially on the road in conference play. As 14-point underdogs, Illinois only lost by six to UCF. The Fighting Illini led by as many as 12 in the third quarter before UCF went on an 18-0 run for the win. And Illinois could get quarterback AJ Bush back after he missed last week's game with an injury.

One advantage the Illini will likely maintain is special teams, notably with placekicker. Chase McLaughlin was a perfect 4-for-4 in field goal tries against South Florida. He had no problem knocking down attempts from 26, 41, 46 and 53 yards away. If Illinois can keep this game close late, he could be the difference-maker.

Who wins Penn State vs. Illinois? And which side covers nearly 55 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the computer model that has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors.