Very few high school football players will receive a Division I offer to play college football, but according to an NCAA study, the odds of breaking out are the highest in the talent-rich state of Florida, where a nation-leading 9.9 percent of players are recruited by a Division I school. 

The study, conducted by the NCAA, analyzed the number of D-I football recruits from 2013-16 divided by the number of boys football participants per state. According to the NCAA, recruits collected in the data are on at least one NCAA Division I Institutional Request List, which is defined here. High school participants for surveys can also be found here. 

The states at the top of the list should come as no surprise to those who follow college football recruiting closely: Georgia (8.6 percent) and Louisiana (8.3 percent) round out the top three as the only states with more than 8 percent of its high school football players going on to become D-I recruits. 

The top 10, per the NCAA: 

  1. Florida: 9.9 percent 
  2. Georgia: 8.6 percent 
  3. Louisiana: 8.3 percent 
  4. Washington, D.C.: 7.2 percent 
  5. Maryland: 6.5 percent 
  6. Tennessee: 6.2 percent 
  7. South Carolina: 6.2 percent
  8. North Carolina: 5.9 percent 
  9. Virginia: 5.6 percent 
  10. Delaware: 5.1 percent

While high school football exists in a stratospheric realm in the state of Texas, only 2.7 percent of players are recruited by a Division I school. 

The example of a recruiting hotbed like Texas, and California (3.5 percent) for that matter, finishing so low in the study makes for an interesting mirror for the college-to-pro analysis. High school football is the craze of Texas, but playing high school football in Texas does not guarantee a college career. College football may dominate the college sports landscape, but only a small percentage of those players will make the step to the next level in the NFL.