There is one more world for No. 1 Michigan and coach Jim Harbaugh to conquer. The Wolverines have overcome Ohio State and ended their Big Ten title drought in the process. This season, not only did they make the College Football Playoff, but they beat No. 4 Alabama to win their first playoff game.
Now, No. 2 Washington stands between the Wolverines and the program's first national title since 1997. Michigan is favored to win the game, but the Huskies present a challenge the likes of which Michigan hasn't seen this year. They come to Houston, Texas, with one of the top quarterbacks in the game (Michael Penix Jr.) and a trio of wide receivers who would make NFL general managers blush.
Finishing the job will not be easy, and these are the five keys to Michigan hoisting the trophy Monday night.
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1. Control the tempo with the run game
The biggest mismatch in this game is between Michigan's ground game and the Washington run defense. In short, Michigan's strength plays to Washington's greatest defensive weakness. The Wolverines offense leans heavily on the ground game, though it isn't explosive; it's more a war of attrition than anything. The Wolverines get behind an excellent offensive line and send Blake Corum and company crashing into it like so many waves against a rocky shoreline.
While there aren't the same big runs we saw last season (the knee injury Corum suffered late last season has impacted him heavily in this department), the Wolverines stay on schedule. Their negative play rate of 17.49% in the run game ranks No. 8 nationally. In Washington, they will face a rush defense that ranks No. 130 nationally in success rate against the run and negative play rate against the run.
Michigan will likely choose to get three or four yards at a time to set up third and manageable situations that could also become fourth downs for which the Wolverines choose to stay on the field. Michigan doesn't find itself in many fourth-down situations but is aggressive when they occur. This will be a way to control the tempo of the game and limit overall possessions. After all, the best way to slow down a potent offense like Washington's has always been to keep it off the field.
2. Pressure Michael Penix
Penix is nearly impossible to sack. His ability to sense pressure in the pocket, avoid it, and then quickly fire off a pass is unparalleled in the college game this season. Penix has a sack rate of only 2.1% (No. 2 nationally) despite a pressure allowed rate of 25.9% (No. 16). If you go back and watch the Sugar Bowl, you'll see numerous plays when Texas pressured Penix through the interior, but Penix avoided it and made plays.
Watch the Rose Bowl, and you'll see Michigan's defense eat Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe alive with pressure. Penix is a lot more difficult to sack than Milroe, though sack avoidance has never been one of Milroe's strengths. But just because it'll be more difficult doesn't mean it's not of the utmost importance.
Teams didn't blitz Washington much this year -- a combination of Penix and the terror of leaving Washington's receivers in man coverage)-- and Michigan doesn't blitz often because it doesn't have to. Michigan's pressure rate of 41.4% ranks No. 6 nationally, and its sack rate of 9.5% ranks No. 7. There isn't a QB on Earth who enjoys being pressured while trying to throw.
3. Limit explosive plays
This is somewhat connected to the last key. Pressure will force Washington to get the ball out quicker and reduce the chance of big plays, but with or without pressure Michigan's secondary must keep plays in front of it as best it can. The Washington offense ranks No. 8 with an explosive play rate of 16.4%, including an explosive pass rate of 21.4% (No. 10). Penix is an aggressive quarterback who isn't afraid to take shots downfield and has the arm to make nearly every throw required.
The Michigan defense ranked third with an explosive pass rate allowed of 9.59%, but the Wolverines didn't face an offense like Washington's this year. However, that doesn't mean it isn't prepared. The Michigan defense of today is the result of a years-long process of creating a unit that could stop the Ohio State offenses that long dominated the Big Ten. This season's Ohio State offense wasn't the same, but the Washington offense the Wolverines will see Monday isn't dissimilar to the Ohio State offenses they stopped with quarterback C.J. Stroud at the helm.
4. Take shots in the passing game
I told you Washington's passing offense ranks No. 10 nationally with an explosive play rate of 21.4%. Would you be shocked to learn that Michigan ranks even higher? It does. Michigan's 21.9% explosive pass rate ranks No. 6, but the Wolverines don't take nearly as many deep shots as Washington does. But they take them, and they'll need to do so in this game.
Just because Michigan can run the ball doesn't mean it should become predictable, and with Washington likely keying on stopping the run, the opportunity to take the top off the Huskies defense will be there. Whether it uses a trick play or play action, Michigan needs to present a vertical threat to keep Washington's defense honest.
5. Remember how to play special teams
It's wild to look back on the special teams mistakes Michigan made in the Rose Bowl against Alabama and how easily any one of them could've led to a loss. There were two muffed punts, a botched extra point, a missed field goal and a bad performance from punter Tommy Doman.
What makes it all the more surprising is that while Michigan didn't have an elite special teams unit during the regular season, it was above average. Michigan entered the Rose Bowl ranked No. 50 nationally in special teams EPA at 11.50. It fell to No. 80 and a -2.73 following a -14.23 EPA performance against Alabama. That's insane! It's also reason to believe that what we saw in the Rose Bowl will not repeat itself in the title game, and it's safe to assume Michigan took additional steps this week to ensure they won't.
