The Michigan Wolverines will try to keep their momentum going when they visit the Northwestern Wildcats on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET. Michigan is a 15.5-point favorite in the latest Michigan vs. Northwestern odds, up from an opener of -13 at most outlets. The Over-Under for total points scored has dropped to 46.5 from an initial offering of 53. Michigan seeks its fourth straight win as it pursues its first Big 10 championship under coach Jim Harbaugh. Northwestern is looking to bounce back following two straight home losses. Before locking in your Michigan vs. Northwestern picks, check out what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.
A Nevada-based expert with 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in handicapping college athletics. He's having another solid season in college football and has had a keen eye for the tendencies of these two programs. Over the past two years, Nagel boasts a spread record of 8-2 in games involving either Michigan or Northwestern.
In Week 1, he advised SportsLine members to take the points with Notre Dame, which closed as a three-point underdog against the Wolverines. The result: the Irish dominated early and held on for a 24-17 victory, and anyone who followed Nagel's advice booked another winner.
Now, he is locked in on Saturday's Northwestern-Michigan game at Ryan Field. Nagel knows the Wildcats (1-2) will be desperate to turn their season around and avoid a third straight home defeat after starting with an impressive 31-27 win at Purdue. In that game, Northwestern forced three turnovers and held Purdue's explosive playmakers in check for most of the night. Senior quarterback Clayton Thorson engineered four touchdown drives through the first three quarters behind a balanced offensive attack.
But that performance failed to carry over to the next two games. Northwestern came out flat and never recovered in a 21-7 home loss to Duke as a three-point favorite in Week 2. The bigger concern is a 39-34 home loss to Akron in which the Wildcats squandered an 18-point halftime lead and yielded 36 second-half points to the Zips. Thorson threw a pair of pick-sixes and also had a sack-fumble that led to an Akron score.
But just because Northwestern struggled against Akron, doesn't mean Michigan will cover.
The Wildcats returned several key contributors from last year's 10-win campaign, and hopes were high that they could build on their breakout season. A nationally televised Week 1 upset of Purdue was encouraging, as senior quarterback Clayton Thorson led a varied attack to a big first half. The defense also got key stops down the stretch.
But Northwestern faltered in each of next two games, losing home contests to Duke and Akron. The Wildcats will move forward without one of their main weapons as leading rusher Jeremy Larkin retired from football after the Akron game because of injuries. Junior John Moten, who has two 100-plus yards game at Northwestern to his credit, is expected to step in as the starting running back.
For Michigan vs. Northwestern, we can tell you Nagel is leaning Over, but he has analyzed key the factors and unearthed the critical factor that causes one side of the spread to hit hard. His pick is only available at SportsLine.
Who covers Michigan-Northwestern? And what critical factor determines the spread? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump all over Saturday, all from a proven college football handicapper who's hitting 80 percent of his picks involving these teams.
