A popular point of criticism has emerged among many pundits from across the nation for No. 3 Michigan and its College Football Playoff résumé: Aside from a 41-17 victory over Penn State, not many eye-popping wins exist on the profile . From that aspect, Michigan probably wishes the Illinois team it will welcome to The Big House on Saturday wasn't in the midst of a two-game losing streak that has seen it fall from No. 16 in the College Football Playoff Rankings a few weeks ago to unranked in the latest edition.
Still, ranked or not, the Illini are 7-3 on the season and one of the tougher opponents Michigan will have faced so far in 2022. It's also a program against whom Michigan has had plenty of success. The two teams don't play often as members of different divisions, but the Wolverines have won the last five meetings with the latest being a 42-25 win in Champaign in 2019. Illinois has not beaten Michigan in Ann Arbor since a 45-20 win over the Wolverines in 2008, back when Ron Zook was leading the Illini and Rich Rodriguez was in the process of making Michigan fans angry on a weekly basis.
Will Michigan remain unbeaten, or will an Illinois team that's already surprised a lot of people pull off its biggest shocker yet?
How to watch Michigan vs. Illinois live
Date: Saturday, Nov. 19 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Michigan Stadium -- Ann Arbor, Michigan
TV: ABC | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Michigan vs. Illinois: Need to know
Michigan controls its Big Ten and College Football Playoff destiny: While we can nitpick Michigan's résumé all we want, the math is pretty simple. If the Wolverines beat Illinois Saturday, beat Ohio State next week and win the Big Ten, they're in the College Football Playoff. And while we can talk about the lack of an overall résumé when it comes to wins against highly ranked opponents, we shouldn't look past the fact that Michigan has treated the teams on its schedule the way an elite team is supposed to. It's won its first 10 games by an average of 30.2 points per game, and only one of its wins came by one-score. The rest have been blowouts.
Two of the nation's leading rushers square off: Both teams have effective passing attacks, but they're more complementary than foundational. What they prefer to do is run the ball, and they have two of the best backs in the nation doing so. Blake Corum is considered a Heisman contender, and he should be. He's fifth nationally with 134.9 rushing yards per game and has scored 17 rushing touchdowns. However, as impressive as those numbers are (particularly the touchdown count), he's not the most productive back in this matchup. Illinois' Chase Brown is second nationally with 144.2 rushing yards per game but is more of a threat as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Brown has caught 23 passes for 173 yards and three scores to go with his ground production. These are two of the nation's best, and odds are that the one who has the better performance in this game will be the one who is celebrating a win afterward.
Illinois has already won more games than any other season since 2011: The Illini have lost their last two games while squandering their lead in the Big Ten West. Once the favorites, the Illini now not only need to pull the upset of Michigan this week but they need help elsewhere to win the division. Still, it's hard to argue this hasn't already been a successful season for the Illini. They came into 2022 with the goal of reaching a bowl game, and even that was seen as a lofty expectation by most preseason prognosticators. They've already won seven games, and could finish with as many as nine wins. Division title or not, it's hard to argue that Bret Bielema doesn't have this program trending in the right direction in his second season at the helm.
Michigan vs. Illinois prediction, picks
One of the reasons Michigan has blown out so many of its opponents is it starts games strong. The Wolverines have been one of the best first-half teams in the country, and they often take their foot off the gas pedal in the second half of games. With Ohio State looming, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar performance this week. Plus, Illinois has proven to be an excellent second-half team, particularly defensively. So, Michigan -9.5 1H should certainly be a play. I also have Michigan to cover the overall number, but for the purposes of this, let's not overthink it. We've got two of the best defenses in the country going at it, and two offenses built on running the ball. That's how unders were won thousands of years ago, and how they're still won today. Prediction: Under 40.5
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