The College Football Playoff doesn't care about the Fornelli 50. This isn't breaking news to you. I often wonder if the committee should care about a formula like the one I use, and hope that whatever metrics they use to choose the four best teams in the country, they're at least of the same principles that my formula uses.
Not because I think the way I do things is better -- OK maybe a little -- but because, when evaluating 65 teams, math can be quite beneficial. It removes any possible biases from the mind of the ones looking at the data about which team is good, and which team isn't as bad as it possibly looked that one Saturday when it was losing to Iowa by 31.
Which brings me to Ohio State and its playoff case. There has been talk about Ohio State's potential to reach the playoff should it win out and win the Big Ten title. That would give the Buckeyes wins over Michigan and Wisconsin, which would theoretically improve their resume enough to possibly earn a spot in the top four despite two losses by an average of 23 points.
So I did a small experiment with the Buckeyes. I removed their losses from the equation to see how they'd stack up without them. Now, when I say I took out the losses, I mean that quite literally. Wins and losses carry more weight in my formula than anything else, but they're only part of the final picture. What I didn't remove was the way Ohio State played in those two losses. That all still counts, because that's performance.
The results surprised me a bit. With the losses on their resume, the Buckeyes have a score of 10.450 (the highest possible score that nobody will ever come close to reaching is 20). When I removed their losses, Ohio State's score climbed to 11.182. It's a significant boost to the score, as it improved by seven percent, but what matters is what that improvement would mean in the overall rankings.
And, honestly, it wouldn't mean very much.
With an 11.182 the Buckeyes would move up, but only to No. 5. They'd still be behind Alabama, Miami, Oklahoma, and yes, Wisconsin in these rankings.
All of which makes me wonder if this team truly would deserve a spot in the final four if it wins the Big Ten. In my mind, Ohio State would not only have to win its final two games, but do so in impressive fashion.
As for the rest of my rankings that the committee doesn't care about, here's a quick reminder of how it all works. You can find a more detailed explanation here.
- My opinion has absolutely nothing to do with the rankings, they're math-based
- There is true equality to start as math doesn't play favorites
- Wins and losses mean more than anything
- The formula is in no way predictive, it's a meritocracy
- I won't share the formula, but it works
- Tuesday night's MAC results are not included in these rankings
| Team | Name | Status | News |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1. Alabama | 11-0 | I wrote about Alabama's score a couple of weeks ago when I was pointing out there isn't an elite team this season. Well, after playing Mercer, Alabama's score dropped further. My formula hates FCS teams. (1) |
 | 2. Wisconsin | 11-0 | Wisconsin has now beaten two of my top 50 teams by a combined 38 points the last two weeks. Its score keeps getting stronger here. (2) |
 | 3. Miami | 10-0 | It was honestly more surprising to me that Miami didn't blow it against Virginia last week than blowing out Notre Dame was. (3) |
 | 4. Oklahoma | 10-1 | Let's be honest with ourselves. The biggest mistake Baker Mayfield made on Saturday was that he grabbed his crotch during a weekend where nothing interesting happened. (5) |
 | 5. Clemson | 10-1 | Like Alabama, Clemson's score lowered due to playing an FCS team. Unlike Alabama, Clemson's ranking suffered for it. (4) |
 | 6. UCF | 10-0 | The Knights have two difficult games to get through before they can earn that NY6 spot. (6) |
 | 7. Georgia | 10-1 | Georgia has beaten the two teams directly behind it in the SEC East by a combined 43 points. That's this year's SEC East. (7) |
 | 8. Ohio State | 9-2 | Illinois didn't provide much of a challenge. (8) |
 | 9. Penn State | 9-2 | It was nice to see Saquon Barkley go back to being himself, even if it was too late to salvage his Heisman Trophy chances. (9) |
 | 10. Notre Dame | 9-2 | I know that Navy's a pain in the butt to play, but the way Notre Dame struggled against it probably killed what little playoff hopes it had. (10) |
 | 11. Auburn | 9-2 | Where might this team be ranked had it not blown that LSU game? (11) |
 | 12. TCU | 9-2 | No Kenny Hill on the road against Texas Tech wasn't a problem for the Frogs. (12) |
 | 13. USC | 10-2 | Between interceptions and fumbles, Sam Darnold has turned the ball over 18 times. That's an average of 1.5 turnovers per game. That needs work. (14) |
 | 14. Washington | 9-2 | Don't worry, Coach Petersen, I stayed up and watched Utah gift you a win in the final minutes. (15) |
 | 15. South Florida | 9-1 | The Bulls are a win over UCF and Memphis away from the NY6 spot we all expected them to earn before the season even though nobody seems to have paid attention to this team since September. (16) |
 | 16. Washington State | 9-2 | If Wazzu beats Washington on Saturday, it's your Pac-12 North champion. (18) |
 | 17. Memphis | 9-1 | The AAC this year has three good teams and a whole lot of mediocre. Memphis is that third good one, obviously. (19) |
 | 18. Stanford | 8-3 | A Wazzu loss against Washington on Saturday makes Stanford your Pac-12 North champion. (20) |
 | 19. Oklahoma State | 8-3 | This team has just faded down the stretch. Not enough to worry about it against Kansas, but enough to leave a bad taste in your mouth considering how good it looked early. (13) |
 | 20. Boise State | 9-2 | Boise State has never gone undefeated in the Mountain West. It's a win over Fresno State away from doing just that. (21) |
 | 21. Virginia Tech | 8-3 | The Hokies ended their two-game losing streak, but didn't look all that impressive while doing so. (24) |
 | 22. Michigan | 8-3 | This Michigan team will catch flak just because Jim Harbaugh is its coach, but 8-3 at this point in the season is what should have been expected. Now, if it's 8-3 at this point next year... (17) |
 | 23. Mississippi State | 8-3 | Looks like somebody was looking past Arkansas to the Egg Bowl last Saturday. (26) |
 | 24. Northwestern | 8-3 | Northwestern and its six-game win streak is a blessing for Wisconsin right now. It will be the only other team in the Big Ten West with a winning conference record. (30) |
 | 25. San Diego State | 9-2 | Rashaad Penny should be a Doak Walker Award finalist. Snubs happen in every award, but this one is the most glaring in 2017. (27) |
 | 26. LSU | 8-3 | I can't remember who tweeted it, but the "never bet against Ed Orgeron in an environment that could support crawfish" tweet during LSU's win over Tennessee in a monsoon Saturday cracked me up. (33) |
 | 27. Toledo | 9-2 | The Rockets are a win over Western Michigan away from a division title. (31) |
 | 28. Michigan State | 8-3 | Nothing like a monstrous 10-point win over a decimated Maryland team to make me change my mind about this team. |
 | 29. Iowa State | 7-4 | Like I said last week, it's already been a magnificent season for Iowa State no matter what happens against Kansas State. (36) |
 | 30. Troy | 8-2 | Troy had the week off. (32) |
 | 31. South Carolina | 8-3 | A friend of mine is a professor at South Carolina and went to his first game this weekend. "They need to add a song other than 'Sandstorm' to the playlist." (35) |
 | 32. FAU | 8-3 | The Lane Train is rolling. (38) |
 | 33. Ohio | 8-3 | Ohio's division hopes are dead following last week's loss and Akron's win on Tuesday night. (22) |
 | 34. West Virginia | 7-4 | Will Grier's hand looked like a weather vane. (23) |
 | 35. Arizona | 7-4 | Oregon bottled up my darling Khalil Tate and beat the Wildcats by 20. (25) |
 | 36. Northern Illinois | 8-3 | In an amazing turn of events, the Huskies are now the biggest Western Michigan fans on Earth. They just need to remember to beat Central Michigan themselves. (39) |
 | 37. Fresno State | 8-3 | Is Fresno State better off "throwing" this week's game against Boise since it'll face it again next week in the Mountain West Championship? And I don't mean lose on purpose; I just mean stick to a vanilla game plan. (40) |
 | 38. Louisville | 7-4 | Lamar Jackson is still amazing. (47) |
 | 39. Army | 8-3 | How many times in its history has Army played in a game that featured more than 100 points? (29) |
 | 40. NC State | 7-4 | The Wolf Pack have now lost three of their last four. (28) |
 | 41. Wake Forest | 7-4 | Sorry, Wake, blame The Formula, not me. I only created it! (46) |
 | 42. Arkansas State | 6-3 | Anybody know how Sun Belt tie-breakers work? Because there are four teams in the conference that are 5-1 right now. (50) |
 | 43. Texas | 6-5 | The Formula has been a fan of Texas all season. It's a perfect example of a team that's better than its record. That's a good sign going forward into next season. (51) |
 | 44. Iowa | 6-5 | I trusted you, Iowa. I made you my Lock of the Week, and a loss to Purdue is how you repay me? (37) |
 | 45. North Texas | 8-3 | North Texas fans can stop yelling at me about the team not being ranked now. (52) |
 | 46. Texas A&M | 7-4 | So do the folks at A&M who want to replace Kevin Sumlin want the Aggies to win or lose this week? (53) |
 | 47. Marshall | 7-4 | The Herd have now lost three of their last four, and the latest one came in exciting 9-7 fashion. (42) |
 | 48. Kentucky | 7-4 | Hey, nobody is telling you to give the wins back, but the Georgia game was a nice reminder of the gap between Kentucky and the SEC elite. (44) |
 | 49. Houston | 6-4 | Houston has been one of the more confusing teams in the country this season. (43) |
 | 50. Kansas State | 6-5 | And here I thought the Wildcats would need to beat Iowa State this weekend to gain bowl eligibility. (63) |
No Longer Ranked: UAB (41), Georgia Tech (45), Wyoming (48), Navy (49)
