The first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings brought controversy in the form of Texas A&M at No. 4 -- that was quickly remedied by a loss to Mississippi State on Saturday -- but the rankings also brought style points into the equation.
On Saturday, we witnessed the No. 2, 3, 5 and 6 ranked teams do their best to impress the committee by beating down their opposition. Ohio State won by 59. Michigan won by 56. Clemson won by 54. Washington won by 39. The clear message of the committee was that they needed to be impressed. If your strength of schedule wasn't going to do it, then you best find another way to and that's what those four teams did.
What that means for the college football gambler is that backdoor covers are going to be more difficult to come by for those that love a good underdog. If you love taking the candy, you might get your hand caught in the jar because the teams at the top are all trying to earn the affection of the committee and don't care about your precious 30-point spread getting stomped on.
With that in mind, Week 11 features a number of double-digit lines for top 10 teams, and after Week 10, it's probably best to tread carefully in those games.
Lines you need to know
No. 2 Michigan (-20) at Iowa: Iowa is not an especially good football team this year, having taken a fairly significant step back from a year ago. The Hawkeyes just got blasted on the road by Penn State and now must come home for an even bigger challenge in Big Ten juggernaut Michigan. For those looking for a reason to take the candy with the home dog in this one, the hope is that Michigan has been completely untested on the road. This is the Wolverines' first game on the road against an above-.500 team.
USC (+8) at No. 4 Washington: The Huskies took that No. 5 ranking a bit personally and hung 66 on Cal late Saturday night just to make sure they didn't get jumped over again this week -- it still could happen if the committee is enthralled by Ohio State's effort. The initial reaction is that this line is a bit low for a home game for this dominant a Huskies team, but USC with Sam Darnold at quarterback has been quite good recently and is still in the Pac-12 South hunt.
No. 8 Auburn (-10) at Georgia: The Tigers struggled with Vanderbilt on Saturday, but a lot of teams struggle with the Commodores' defense and Auburn was able to get away with a win. Now, Auburn heads to Athens for a rivalry game with a Georgia team that escaped Kentucky with a win to get one game away from bowl eligibility. This line could simply come down to how much you believe in the power of a rivalry game at home.
These may raise some eyebrows
South Carolina (+12) at No. 22 Florida: The Gators are without starting quarterback Luke Del Rio for this one and that's dropped this line 4.5 points from open. Even at 12 points, with Austin Appleby now entering the mix, this seems to be putting a lot of faith in a Florida offense that could only put up three points on Arkansas a week ago with Del Rio -- the other seven came by way of pick six.
Vanderbilt (+3.5) at Missouri: Why is Missouri favored in a conference football game? I thought we went over this two weeks ago with Kentucky. The Tigers are a bad football team. They have not won in conference and haven't been within one possession of an SEC opponent since mid-September. This has nothing to do with Vanderbilt and everything to do with the principle that is: Missouri cannot be a favorite in the SEC.
Wake Forest (+35) at No. 5 Louisville: I know everything I wrote up above about style points and that scaring me off wide lines, but this is stunning. The Demon Deacons have not given up more than 33 points in a game this season. I know they haven't faced a player anywhere close to Lamar Jackson's ability, but this is a very good defense -- and one that held Florida State to 17 points. Five touchdowns is a ton against a reasonably quality opponent, even for this Louisville team.
Consider staying away
No. 25 Baylor (+15.5) at No. 9 Oklahoma: Oklahoma is probably the right side here, but I just don't like this. Baylor looked awful against TCU, but the Sooners have really struggled to pull away from teams -- Kansas excluded -- and laying over two touchdowns with Oklahoma is not something I'm prepared to do right now.
Boston College (+21) at No. 20 Florida State: Boston College just got embarrassed by Louisville, bringing the Eagles back down to earth following their first conference win since 2014. I don't like this line at three touchdowns on either side -- I think it's just in the right spot -- because I don't trust Boston College to really compete in this, but they have a defense that might be refocused and could slow down Florida State.
No. 19 LSU (-7) at Arkansas: I have no idea what Arkansas is and that's why I won't be touching this game. The Razorbacks looked tremendous against Florida on Saturday. That was a phenomenal offensive performance against a really good defense. They also have had their issues with good running teams and LSU is certainly a good running team -- the Alabama game is the exception. I'm excited to watch this game, but have no desire to take either side.
