Patience is a virtue in short supply these days. College football coaches were once afforded time to establish their programs, but in NIL and the transfer portal era, coaches are asked to get the job done much quicker. Coaches used to have at least three seasons on the job before reaching a final conclusion. Now, if you haven't shown significant progress by the end of Year 2, you're either cut loose or on a short leash heading into Year 3.
In the 2023 season, there seemed to be more success stories than failures among the second-year coaches. A few did so well in their second season that they've been pulled away by better programs, while others have things "going in the right direction" headed into 2024. There are also the coaches entering 2024 on a hot seat.
Who's who? What better way to decipher than by grading the jobs each has done through two seasons at their respective programs.
Power Five
| Team | Coach | Record | Analysis | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Elko | 16-9 | Record-wise, Duke regressed under Elko in 2023, falling from 9-4 to 7-5, but he was still plucked away from Durham, North Carolina, by Texas A&M. Why? Because one of those seven wins came over Clemson in the season-opener, and the Blue Devils nearly knocked off Notre Dame, too. It was in the Notre Dame loss that star QB Riley Leonard suffered a high-ankle sprain that altered the rest of Duke's season. | A | |
| Billy Napier | 11-14 | I'm not sure there's a coach at the Power Five level on a hotter seat than Napier. After an uninspiring 6-7 record in 2022, the Gators were less inspiring in 2023 amid a 5-7 campaign. What had been a great recruiting class fizzled as signing day approached and the losses mounted. The Gators head into 2024 with one of the toughest schedules in the country and not a lot of confidence in their coach. | D | |
| Brian Kelly | 20-7 | Kelly put together his second 10-win season in as many tries at LSU. This season, he added a Heisman Trophy-winning QB to his resume. He's fallen short of the ultimate goal of winning a national title, but the Tigers would've made the College Football Playoff in a 12-team field in both of Kelly's seasons. That will be the goal for 2024 as the format expands. | B+ | |
| Mario Cristobal | 12-13 | The good news is Miami didn't lose to Middle Tennessee this year. The bad news is it only went 7-6 and is 12-13 in two seasons under Cristobal, including a 6-10 record in the ACC. That's not why he was hired. However, the Canes are doing well on the recruiting trail and will be considered one of the favorites in the conference next year. That sets up one of the greatest rivalries in college football: Miami vs. Expectations. | D+ | |
| Marcus Freeman | 19-8 | The Fighting Irish look to be trending in the right direction. They improved from 9-4 in Freeman's first season to 10-3 in his second and have done well in recruiting. Unfortunately, they'll be bringing in their third offensive coordinator in as many seasons next year as well as a new starting QB Riley Leonard. | B | |
| Brent Venable | 16-10 | The Sooners took a big step forward in Venables' second season, improving from 6-7 to 10-3. It still wasn't good enough for a Big 12 Championship Game appearance, though. Now the Sooners are heading to the SEC, where life won't be any easier. Venables faces a big season in 2024. | C+ | |
| Dan Lanning | 22-5 | Of the four Pac-12 schools heading to the Big Ten, none look in better shape to compete immediately than Lanning's Oregon program. The Ducks are coming off a 12-2 season where their only two losses were close calls against the Washington team that reached the CFP National Championship game, and they've gone 22-5 in his first two seasons. That optimism could fade if the Ducks fail to "get over the hump" again in 2024, though. | B+ | |
| Sonny Dykes | 18-9 | Recency bias would lead to a much lower grade here, but while the Horned Frogs took a significant step backward this year, Dykes took them to the national title game in 2022. Even with a 5-7 mark this past season, the Frogs are 18-9 under Dykes and have a chance to establish themselves as a power in the Big 12 as Texas and Oklahoma depart for the SEC. | A- | |
| Joey McGuire | 15-11 | McGuire's first two seasons exemplify what happens when expectations clash with reality. An 8-5 start and success on the recruiting trail led to a lot of excitement heading into 2023, but the Red Raiders fell to 7-6 and failed to meet those expectations. It isn't the goal, but I have a tough time downgrading McGuire for posting two winning records in Lubbock, Texas. However, it's probably in his best interests to show improvement next year. | C+ | |
| Lincoln Riley | 19-8 | USC entered the season as the Pac-12 favorite behind reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams and the Trojans were viewed as a national title contender. They finished 8-5 as Williams regressed and the defense put on a weekly exhibition of how not to tackle or cover receivers. Now, USC enters a new era in the Big Ten with many more questions than answers, evidenced by Riley completely (and belatedly) overhauling his defensive staff. | D | |
| Tony Elliott | 6-16 | Elliott was in an extremely difficult situation given the tragedy that struck Virginia at the end of the 2022 season, which makes it challenging to accurately gauge the job he's done. Still, while the win total for the Hoos didn't improve, there's a sense of optimism around the program heading into 2024. | C- | |
| Brent Pry | 10-14 | The entire vibe around Virginia Tech changed in mid-October. The Hokies went 3-8 last year and began 2023 with a 2-4 record that saw them lose to Purdue, Rutgers and Marshall. Following a loss to Florida State, the Hokies turned things around. They won five of their last seven to finish 7-6 and look like a team that will continue to make noise in the ACC. | B- | |
| Kalen DeBoer | 25-3 | DeBoer became the second member of this class to reach the title game. Sonny Dykes did it with TCU last year, and DeBoer's Huskies earned a trip this year. Neither won, but this is the easiest grade in the class by miles. DeBoer did so well in two seasons that he was chosen as the successor to Nick Saban at Alabama. | A+ | |
| Jake Dickert | 15-16 | Washington State isn't the easiest place to win, and it only became more complicated when Dickert was forced to coach this team while he watched the Pac-12 crumble as his program was one of two schools without a chair to sit in when the music stopped. The vibes are not high after a 2-7 mark in conference play. | C |
Group of Five
| School | Coach | Record | Analysis | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Moorhead | 4-20 | There are few gigs in the country tougher than Akron, and Joe Moorhead has first-hand knowledge of how difficult it can be after another 2-10 season with the Zips. He'll get a third season, but I can't imagine he'll see a fourth if things don't drastically improve. | D | |
| Jay Norvell | 8-16 | Jay Norvell received more attention for his comments about Deion Sanders ahead of a game against Colorado than anything else, but the Rams improved in his second season. Not only did they nearly knock off the Buffaloes, but they improved from 3-9 to 5-7. Norvell was plucked away from Nevada because Colorado State feels it should be contending for conference titles in the Mountain West, though. The pressure to do so is on in 2024. | C- | |
| Jim Mora | 9-16 | Mora's first season at UConn is an example of too much success too soon. Getting to a bowl game was far better than anybody should've realistically expected, and assuming the Huskies would get back in Year 2 was too much to ask. Still, you'd have liked to see something better than a 3-9 mark for the Huskies. | C- | |
| Mike MacIntyre | 8-16 | The Panthers finished with the same 4-8 record overall in Macintyre's second season, but they went from 2-6 in Conference USA to 1-7. Making matters worse, the lone victory was a double-overtime win over FBS newcomer Sam Houston, and the seven losses came by an average of 22.4 points, all by at least 13 points. | D | |
| Jeff Tedford | 19-8 | The only question about Tedford at Fresno State is his health. When he's coaching, the Bulldogs win games, and that was the case again in 2023. Fresno went 9-4 overall but faded down the stretch. Then it was announced Tedford would be stepping away due to health reasons after the season. | B+ | |
| Clay Helton | 12-14 | Georgia Southern is a program that's used to success, and it hasn't seen enough of it in two seasons under Helton. As the Sun Belt trends toward becoming one of the strongest Group of Five leagues, the Eagles seem stuck in the mud after consecutive 6-7 seasons and 3-5 marks in conference play. | D+ | |
| Timmy Chang | 8-18 | Hawaii remains challenging, but the Warriors improved in 2023. After going 3-10 in Chang's first season, they improved to 5-8 with wins over New Mexico State, Air Force and Colorado State. The Warriors also hung tough in losses to Stanford and Vanderbilt. | C | |
| Michael Desormeaux | 13-14 | The way things have gone in Desormeaux's first two seasons and the way things are going in Gainesville, Florida, I wouldn't be surprised if Billy Napier is back in charge in 2025. The Cajuns are only 12-14 in Desormeaux's two full seasons and 7-9 in the Sun Belt. | C | |
| Sonny Cumbie | 6-18 | The 2023 season was an encore for Cumbie as he matched the 3-9 record and 2-6 mark in conference play. It's tough to envision a fourth season if things don't improve quickly. | D | |
| Don Brown | 4-20 | A 4-20 mark doesn't look like much, but the three wins the Minutemen managed in 2023 are the most they've had in any season since Mark Whipple's final year in 2018. I can't imagine the 68-year-old Brown is in it for the long haul, but he's doing what he was hired to do: establish a foundation. | C- | |
| Ken Wilson | 4-20 | Nevada is not an easy place to win, and Ken Wilson didn't win while in charge. He was fired after another 2-10 season in 2023, though he did manage to pick up two conference wins this year. | F | |
| Jerry Kill | 17-11 | A serial winner, Jerry Kill led the Aggies to their most successful season in program history and nearly won the Conference USA title in their first as a league member. Unfortunately, he was forced to step down due to health concerns, but he proved once again that he knows what it takes to win games at places where winning is not easy. | A | |
| Rhett Lashlee | 18-9 | SMU entered the 2023 season expected to compete for a conference title. Well, it went and won a conference title. The Mustangs finished the season undefeated in the American and 11-3 overall but fell short of a New Year's Six bid. However, they did earn themselves a spot in the ACC. I don't know if Lashlee deserves the credit, but winning games didn't hurt. | A | |
| Stan Drayton | 6-18 | The rough stretch continues for Temple. Drayton posted his second consecutive 3-9 mark and is only 2-14 in conference play. The Owls finished behind all six AAC newcomers, and their lone conference win was over Navy. | D | |
| Jon Sumrall | 23-4 | Sumrall won the Sun Belt with Troy in his first season and enjoyed it so much he decided to do it again in his second. The Trojans finished 11-2, and it turns out that when you win consecutive conference titles, other schools notice. He was chosen to replace Willie Fritz at Tulane shortly after the Sun Belt title game. | A+ |
