When I was working on the formula for these resume rankings over the offseason, there was a reason I decided to use the rankings of teams at the time the games were played when computing top 25 wins versus the most current set of rankings. It was because using the rankings at the time of the game proved to be more accurate predicting what the College Football Playoff Rankings looked like at the end of the season. While the order wasn't always correct, the final resume rankings nailed the top four in each of the first four seasons of the College Football Playoff except for one.
It was the 2014 season in which both TCU and Baylor finished ahead of Ohio State. TCU was No. 3, Baylor was No. 5 and Ohio State was all the way down at No. 9. For those who remember the 2014 CFP, Ohio State's selection at the time was quite controversial, as many believed the committee was just taking the "name brand" team because it would bring better television ratings, and it also kept them from having to make a difficult decision between TCU and Baylor. The two teams were both 11-1 and considered Big 12 co-champions.
Well, fast forward to 2018, and I have a feeling Ohio State could be the fly in the ointment once again, but this time it'll be team pulling the short straw.
As I wrote Tuesday night after the newest CFP Rankings came out, Ohio State's likely going to have a difficult time surpassing Oklahoma in the CFP Rankings without Oklahoma losing. Conversely, it will be impossible for Oklahoma to pass Ohio State here. The Buckeyes 62-39 win over No. 4 Michigan last weekend was worth 9.3 points, giving it 31.6 resume points on the season and launching it from No. 7 in last week's rankings to No. 2 this week.
Oklahoma, once again, remains outside the top 10. Its win over West Virginia was worth 5.3 resume points, but that only brings the Sooners total to 13.0 this season. That's good enough to rank 11th, just 0.3 points behind Washington at No. 10.
As always, however, things are fluid, and there will be plenty of shifting in the rankings this weekend with all the conference championship games being played. For a reminder on the process behind calculating these scores, feel free to read the explanation here.
| Team | Name | Record | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
 | 1. Notre Dame | 12-0 | 35.3 |
 | 2. Ohio State | 11-1 | 31.6 |
 | 3. Alabama | 12-0 | 30.5 |
 | 4. Georgia | 11-1 | 28.7 |
 | 5. Clemson | 12-0 | 23.4 |
 | 6. LSU | 9-3 | 22.4 |
 | 7. Michigan | 10-2 | 20.4 |
 | 8. Texas | 9-3 | 19.4 |
 | 9. UCF | 11-0 | 15.5 |
 | 10. Washington | 9-3 | 13.3 |
Notes
- Speaking of flies in the ointment, Clemson has proven to be a difficult case this season as well. As I've written here before, though, I blame the rest of the ACC for letting Clemson down rather than pinning blame on the Tigers. They just haven't had a chance to play as many ranked teams this season as they should have. This week will be another continuation of that. A win over Pitt in the ACC Championship Game will be worth 1 point. Nothing more, nothing less. So the only way the Tigers could pass Georgia in these rankings is if Georgia were to not just lose to Alabama, but get blown out.
- While we're on the topic of Georgia and the SEC Championship Game, Alabama and the Bulldogs check in at Nos. 3 and 4 respectively this week. Since both are top five teams, the winner of this game will receive a minimum of 7.1 resume points, while the loser will lose at least 3.1 resume points. That means both have a shot at climbing to No. 1 with a win depending on what Ohio State does against Northwestern (an Ohio State win would be worth a minimum of 3.1 points). No. 1 Notre Dame's regular season is over, so it won't have a chance to add points to its total this weekend.
- Texas has a chance to finish as quite the outlier this season as well. The Longhorns are currently ranked No. 8 with 19.4 resume points. A win over Oklahoma would be worth a minimum of 7.1 resume points, which would give the Longhorns at least a total of 26.5 points. Not bad for a three-loss team.
- This has no impact on the top of these rankings, but I did find it interesting, and it also gives some insight into how difficult a road Group of Five teams face when it comes to respect from the committee. Oklahoma State had one of the most bipolar seasons I can recall. It picked up wins over ranked teams like Boise State, Texas and West Virginia, the latter two being wins over teams ranked in the top 10 at the time. It lost to a top 10 Oklahoma team by a point. And it also lost to Texas Tech by 24, Kansas State by 19, and finished the season losing to TCU. Because of those three wins over ranked teams, the Cowboys managed to rack up 4.9 resume points despite earning -18 points from their six losses. They're currently ranked at No. 22 in the resume rankings, ahead of 10-win Group of Five teams like Utah State, Buffalo, Fresno State, and Cincinnati, as well as 9-win Group of Five teams like Army and Appalachian State. It goes to show how hard it is to put together a resume when you don't have direct access to games against teams that will boost it. It's a lesson UCF is all too familiar with.
