Early returns in the College Football Playoff race suggest the SEC will dominate the first year of expansion after the league placed six teams inside the top seven nationally in this week's updated AP Poll. Texas taking Michigan behind the woodshed along with Tennessee's 44-point splattering of previously-ranked NC State were barometer non-conference matchups in Week 2 that will be viewed favorably by the selection committee down the road.
After Week 3, my projected automatic bids from expected Power 4 champions along with a Group of Five entry include Georgia (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Miami (ACC), Iowa State (Big 12) and Texas State (Group of Five, from the Sun Belt Conference).
As for seven projected at-large selections, the selection committee will get their pick of various Power Four. Heavyweights graced with competitive schedules whose finishes in the elite-tier of their respective conferences will dictate placement. Not necessarily following this week's updated polls, I'm expecting the SEC and Big Ten to gobble up all of those spots at this junction.
This would leave the ACC and Big 12 as one-bid leagues, unless there's a one-loss representative from one of those conferences who could trump others for one of the final spots. While Miami is the clear-cut frontrunner at this point in the ACC, the title race in the Big 12 is wide open with Iowa State possessing a notable ranked win over Iowa before league play begins.
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| SEC champion -- Top-ranked Georgia looks the part, and it comes as no surprise the Bulldogs are the overwhelming frontrunner to win the national championship. They enter Saturday's game at Kentucky on a 41-game regular-season winning streak and haven't allowed a touchdown this fall. Georgia plays former program signee Brock Vandagriff, Kentucky's quarterback who struggled mightily against South Carolina last time out. Needless to say, the Bulldogs are a sizable road favorite. | |
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| Big Ten champion -- One of the oft-chosen title game participants, Ohio State whizzed by its first two opponents with little fight from the opposition. Transfer quarterback Will Howard seems to be settling in with his new offense and true freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith already looks like a future first-rounder. Like Georgia, Ohio State's vet-laden defense looks the part. The Buckeyes will be tested in the coming weeks during Big Ten play, but they're the clear-cut favorite at the top of the conference at this point. | |
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| ACC champion -- Buy stock in Miami while you still can. Transfer quarterback Cam Ward lit up Florida in the Swamp with several elite throws during opening weekend and there's enough talent on defense to run through the rest of the ACC slate, which won't include Clemson during the regular season. The ACC Championship likely goes through Coral Gables, which means the Hurricanes could be sitting awfully pretty with a bye. | |
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| Big 12 champion -- Could the Cyclones win the Big 12? The conference looks wide-open and through two weeks, Iowa State has the league's best win after beating arch-rival Iowa in Iowa City. Quarterback Rocco Becht is trending towards household name status, and his duo of star receivers is going to make the Cyclones awfully dangerous on offense. Utah and Kansas State are serious contenders here, but the Utes are already dealing with a Cam Rising hand injury (he should be fine but you never know) and the Wildcats have not been inspiring through two weeks. For now we go with the 'Clones. | |
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| Texas snared more first-place votes in this week's AP Poll after obliterating Michigan on the road and ending the nation's longest winning streak. The Longhorns stiff-armed the defending national champions with elite play at the line of scrimmage and three touchdown passes from Quinn Ewers was more than enough. By halftime, the game was out of reach in Ann Arbor. It was college football's most impressive showing in the early going and shows Texas is undoubtedly a legitimate national championship threat in 2024. Here's where the program's elites are going to hate the expanded CFP: One of the clear top-three teams in the sport is not going to get a bye. | |
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| The lack of complacency, despite inferior competition, impresses Lane Kiffin. This weekend's game at Wake Forest will be the Rebels' first true test of the campaign. Newsflash: that's coach speak. Ole Miss has been unstoppable offensively and Jaxson Dart is the Heisman frontrunner after two starts. He comes off an SEC-record 24 consecutive completions to start the win over Middle Tennessee and is spreading it around to a variety of high-end targets. | |
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| This is starting to get shaky for the Ducks, but they're unblemished and still factor in as a top-12 team. Oregon's odds were better this summer (+850) than they are right now. A closer-than-expected win over Idaho in the opener and a near-whiff at home against Boise State revealed some warts, especially at the line of scrimmage. Oregon's not protecting Dillon Gabriel (sacked seven times) the way most assumed and this defense was gashed on the ground over the weekend by Ashton Jeanty. | |
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| One of a handful of SEC teams projected as a playoff participant, Alabama held a five-point lead midway through the fourth quarter of Saturday's win over USF. Then, the floodgates opened and the Crimson Tide's depth led to 21 straight points. The injury to tackle Kadyn Proctor is a factor to watch moving forward since the offensive line isn't where it needs to be as a collective unit just yet. We'll know more about Alabama under first-year coach Kaleb DeBoer in the coming weeks. | |
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| It's been a Jekyll and Hyde year so far for the Nittany Lions. Which version of Penn State shows up the rest of the way? Give credit to Bowling Green over the weekend for putting together a great game plan and nearly executing to perfection in Happy Valley. James Franklin's team made several big-time plays in Week 1 at West Virginia and flexed defensively, but the opposite happened in their 2024 home debut. The schedule, relative to other Big Ten elites, is advantageous for this team. | |
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| Did America overlook Tennessee? Sure looks like it. After a 41-point destruction of NC State over the weekend, one of the Vols' 50-50 tests is over. Three games of interest on Tennessee's schedule will determine the SEC race and the program's playoff chances -- Oklahoma, Alabama and Georgia. If the Vols finish with 10 wins, they likely get a shot in the tournament. | |
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| Off the board as a title contender before the season, a 2-0 start changed the outlook for the Trojans under third-year coach Lincoln Riley. Defensively, USC looks like a different program. The Trojans are flying to the football and their size and overall mass up front is impressive. The season-opening win over LSU was unexpected and their upcoming matchup with Michigan is another opportunity to show vast improvements that were made in the offseason. | |
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| Something special is being built on the banks of the San Marcos River in Central Texas, where GJ Kinne's Bobcats just rocked UTSA to take the throne as the best Group of Five team in the football-frenzied Lone Star State. Does it mean Texas State makes the playoff? Long way to go and a home win Thursday vs. Arizona State would be a big help to putting the Bobcats in position to be one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. You can argue Boise State, Northern Illinois, Tulane and Liberty would beat the Bobcats heads-up, but for now we're going with Texas State. I like their chances to go undefeated if they can get past the Sun Devils this week. | |
Projected College Football Playoff first-round games
- (12) Texas State at (5) Texas -- Winner plays (4) Iowa State
- (9) Penn State at (8) Alabama -- Winner plays (1) Georgia
- (11) USC at (6) Ole Miss -- Winner plays (3) Miami
- (10) Tennessee at (7) Oregon -- Winner plays (2) Ohio State
Opening-round matchups at campus sites based on this Week 3 projection features Texas State at Texas, USC at Ole Miss, Tennessee at Oregon and Penn State at Alabama. Texas State-Texas would be a coveted ticket between two programs a short trip away down Interstate 35, while Lane Kiffin meeting one of his former programs provides a plethora of intrigue.
Two high-powered offenses going at it at Autzen Stadium along with a pair of bluebloods battling in Tuscaloosa would result in a SEC vs. Big Ten ratings bonanza in the expanded playoff's debut. This was the intention after all, right?
Winners of those four games would move on to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at bowl sites including the Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the highest-ranked SEC or Big 12 teams in the quarters, so top-seeded Georgia would be playing in New Orleans.
Schedules heating up
We're still two months away from the initial rankings release, so there's plenty of opportunities for teams not included in this Week 3 projection to make waves. Strength of schedule and head-to-head results will be two determining factors in selection committee deliberations and there's a wealth of "good on good" matchups upcoming.
Tennessee-Oklahoma, Utah-Oklahoma State and USC-Michigan later this month should help to establish the hierarchy behind perceived title contenders across the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten while freshly-ranked Northern Illinois' trip to NC State later this month could produce a formidable Group of Five dark horse. NIU's win over Notre Dame, the program's first over a top 10 team, was an emotional momentum-booster for coach Thomas Hammock, whose team could navigate a manageable schedule and finish unbeaten if the Huskies can clip the Wolfpack on Sept. 28.
No two-loss team has ever appeared in the playoff, but that will change in the expansion. Several multi-loss teams within this Week 3 projection are expected from the SEC and Big Ten given the schedule challenges many of these quality squads will endure. We're also envisioning several repeat matchups in the playoff. Georgia-Texas, Ohio State-Oregon and Ole Miss-Georgia are just a few of the games we could see more than once in the coming months.
While it's difficult to pull hard takeaways from a small sample size, the Ducks are one perceived elite who haven't passed the eye test thus far. Protection issues along the offensive line is an unexpected weakness and Oregon is fortunate to be unbeaten despite both of its first two games coming down to fourth-quarter execution as a heavy favorite.
Clemson has a chance to reappear in these playoff projections in the coming weeks. The Tigers turned back a season-opening loss to Georgia over the weekend with an annihilation of Appalachian State and they're open in Week 3 prior to hosting NC State. Dabo Swinney's group should be favored in every regular-season matchup the rest of the way with Florida State falling apart and Virginia Tech not playing as well as advertised.
MORE: Making the case for and against Notre Dame's playoff chances
