The newest official College Football Playoff Rankings are now live. Click here!
Every week ahead of the College Football Playoff Rankings release, we will be predicting what the top 25 will look like when the CFP Selection Committee makes its announcement Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET. It is a warmup act for the warmup act, which are the CFP Rankings releases before the final one on Sunday, Dec. 3.
Note: Predictions in this post are based only on results to this point, so they do not reflect the final forecast for the playoff, which can be found here.
Here, we will try to emphasize the same criteria the committee uses. That will be difficult because, as we have learned, the committee can be all over the map. Sometimes, it decides that head-to-head matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, strength of schedule matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, relative dominance matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes it's about game control -- whatever that is -- or recency bias or ... ah, you get the idea.
What we have learned is that this process is highly subjective. It is much more subjective than the process the basketball committee uses, which is what the football committee was modeled after. With all of that in mind, here is what I think the top 25 will look like this week.
The newest official College Football Playoff Rankings are now live. Click here!
| 1 |  |
| Clemson took care of rival South Carolina and is now in position to defend its championship as the No. 1 seed. (3) | |
| 2 |  |
| The Sooners' strength of schedule is weighed down by games against UTEP, Baylor and Kansas, which have combined for zero wins against FBS opponents in games not against each other. Regardless, OU will be a playoff team with a win in the Big 12 Data Point, er, Championship Game, which it does not need this season. (4) | |
| 3 |  |
| Auburn now has two wins at home over highly ranked teams, both of which were No. 1 at game time, and a loss on the road to the likely current No. 1. The Tigers are a neutral-ish field win away over Georgia from their first playoff appearance. (6) | |
| 4 |  |
| The Badgers destroyed Minnesota but could be the first major conference undefeated team to be ranked behind one with two losses. The committee is not going to respect the Badgers until they beat Ohio State. (5) | |
| 5 |  |
| The Crimson Tide lost their shot at the SEC title at Auburn. Despite the loss, Alabama's playoff hopes are not quite dead yet, but it is out of their hands. (1) | |
| 6 |  |
| The Bulldogs blew out rival Georgia Tech in their tuneup for the SEC title game. They will be looking to get revenge against Auburn. The crowd should be much friendlier in Atlanta. (7) | |
| 7 |  |
| Miami played with fire one time too many and got burned at Pitt. They can still make the playoff with a win over Clemson but lost a chance at the No. 1 seed. (2) | |
| 8 |  |
| No J.T. Barrett, no problem. Ohio State beat Michigan even though Barrett left the game with a knee injury. His status for Wisconsin is in some doubt, despite him saying after the Michigan game that he will play. (9) | |
| 9 |  |
| The Nittany Lions finished the season with a complete evisceration of Maryland. It was a great season, which will end in one of the committee's games. (10) | |
| 10 |  |
| The Trojans took the week off and likely scouted Stanford and Washington State, their potential Pac-12 title game opponents. They will play the Cardinal for a spot in the New Year's Six, likely the Fiesta Bowl. (11) | |
| 11 |  |
| TCU still has an outside shot at the playoff, but needs to beat Oklahoma to make that happen. (12) | |
| 12 |  |
| The Cardinal beat down Notre Dame and should make a big jump in the rankings, especially given this committee's faith to head-to-head results. Of course, this particular one is a problem for the committee because Stanford, ND and USC went 1-1 vs. each other. (21) | |
| 13 |  |
| Just three weeks ago, The Irish were 8-1 and talking playoff. Losing to two good teams on the road not only crushed that dream, but makes a shot at a New Year's Six bowl unlikely. (8) | |
| 14 |  |
| Central Florida won a thriller against South Florida and will play Memphis for not just the American Athletic Conference title, but also for a spot in the New Year's Six. (15) | |
| 15 |  |
| Washington could not win the league, so the Huskies did the next best thing -- they took that chance away from their rival. Beating Washington State knocked the Cougars out of contention and sent Stanford to the Pac-12 title game. (17) | |
| 16 |  |
| The Spartans ended their rebound season on a high note with a blowout of Rutgers. A nice bowl, likely in Florida, awaits. (16) | |
| 17 |  |
| Five of LSU's past six wins came over teams that already fired their coaches or were about to fire them. The Tigers bounced back nicely from that ugly loss to Troy to finish 9-3. (18) | |
| 18 |  |
| If the Cowboys had been able to take advantage of a favorable home schedule, this could have been a playoff team. Instead, the best they can hope for is a return trip to the Alamo Bowl. San Antonio is a very nice consolation prize. (19) | |
| 19 |  |
| The Tigers have scored 136 points the past two weeks against SMU and East Carolina. I cannot wait to watch this team take on UCF again. Might need to add another digit to the scoreboard on both sides. (20) | |
| 20 |  |
| The Cougars couldn't get the job done in the Apple Cup, so they missed out on a trip to Santa Clara for the Pac-12 title game. Of course, they might end up there anyway in the Foster Farms Bowl. (13) | |
| 21 |  |
| The Wildcats started the season 2-3 and in disarray, but they won their final seven, which was good enough for second place in the Big Ten West. (22) | |
| 22 |  |
| A 9-3 season is good by almost any standard, but especially when you play a freshman quarterback. Coach Justin Fuentes will be a name heard often as the coaching carousel spins. (25) | |
| 23 |  |
| The Bulldogs saw QB Nick Fitzgerald get injured in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi and they did not recover. It was a tough way to end an otherwise pretty good season. And, to add insult to injury, their coach left for another SEC school. (14) | |
| 24 |  |
| The Wolfpack started 6-1 and were thinking conference title, but then lost three out of four and will have to settle for a good bowl game. (NR) | |
| 25 |  |
| The 7-5 Hawkeyes have been hit and miss. Only Notre Dame has played a better schedule and they annihilated Ohio State. The home loss to Purdue is the only true blemish on a pretty good season. (NR) | |
