The SEC and Big Ten continue to power early season College Football Playoff projections, but there are several programs on bubble watch inside the national rankings but outside of those leagues with plenty of upcoming opportunities to bully their way into the conversation.
Notre Dame and Utah encounter pivotal matchups in Week 4, along with Michigan. The Fighting Irish can't afford a letdown after taking out their frustrations on Purdue, while the Utes prepped for their Big 12 debut with a thumping of Utah State. Notre Dame's breather on Saturday comes in the form of Miami (Ohio) prior to a critical home bout with Louisville to end the month. The Utes will try to waltz into Boone-Pickens Stadium at Oklahoma State and leave with a win as a slight road dog.
The Wolverines can reach out and already touch the proverbial wall with USC coming to Michigan Stadium. A loss to the Trojans sends Michigan outside of the top 25 for the first time since Week 2 of the 2021 season. Michigan's plan is to start Alex Orji at quarterback in an effort to kickstart the offense following inconsistent play from Davis Warren, who's thrown six interceptions through three games.
The playoff bubble for the Wolverines deteriorates if Michigan loses a second home game after being clobbered by Texas earlier this month. That setback exposed questions for the defending national champions and led to the Longhorns eventually leaping Georgia at No. 1 in the AP Top 25 after last week's action.
College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Week 4
Missouri: The Tigers have what appears to be a good nonconference win against Boston College under their belts entering Saturday's matchup with Vanderbilt. The Commodores are heavy underdogs and have lost nine straight against SEC opponents dating back to the 2022 campaign.
Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman's team responded to the NIU loss in a big way last weekend by dispatching of Purdue 66-7. It was a much-needed "get right" victory for the Fighting Irish, who remain very much alive in the at-large conversation with a contest with nationally ranked Louisville looming next weekend.
Utah: The Utes' first Big 12 contest at Oklahoma State helps determine an early frontrunner in the league race, alongside unbeaten Kansas State. Two-time all-conference quarterback Cameron Rising is expected to play, and his presence in the lineup is a major reason why Utah was tabbed as the preseason favorite in the conference. These two programs are meeting for the first time since 1945.
Michigan: It's only Week 4, but the Wolverines' showdown with USC is a pivotal moment in Sherrone Moore's first season. The Wolverines already have a loss, and failing to win their Big Ten opener at home means playoff hopes fade considerably given the rest of the slate. With three games on the schedule against teams currently ranked (at No. 24 Illinois, No. 9 Oregon, at No. 3 Ohio State), the journey to win out would be arduous.
Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State will do what it can Saturday to ensure Utah has a not-so-friendly welcome to Big 12 play in Stillwater behind Alan Bowman and Ollie Gordon, the Cowboys' combo-punch offensively. Bowman's coming off a five-touchdown performance, while Gordon, the reigning Doak Walker winner, has yet to find his groove on the ground. The Big 12 is wide open, but the winner of this tilt has an inside track to the league's title game.
Boise State: As far as good losses are concerned, the Broncos' three-point setback at Oregon earlier this month holds merit as long as the Ducks keep winning. Boise State should win the Mountain West, but a road trip to current unbeaten UNLV several weeks from now will go a long way in determining that. The Broncos are one of a handful of Group of Five teams still in excellent shape in Week 4 despite a tick in the loss column.
Memphis: Navigating through the AAC will not be easy for the Tigers, but last week's victory at Florida State was a necessity for being in the mix as a Group of Five hopeful. Memphis tackles Navy this weekend prior to Middle Tennessee and then an open week. That means extra time to prepare for Alex Golesh and USF, an important upcoming conference showdown on Oct. 11.
About the expanded CFP
The first CFP Rankings from the selection committee are release Nov. 5, then every Tuesday night through Dec. 3 leading up to Selection Sunday (Dec. 8). The top-ranked team in the first CFP Rankings has gone on to win the national championship only twice since 2014.
In the first season of the 12-team playoff format, the four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and receive first-round byes in December. Remaining teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5-12 based on the selection committee's opinion.
First-round games on campus start Dec. 20 with CFP quarterfinals at bowl sites beginning Dec. 31. The semifinals at the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will be played Jan. 9 and 10, respectively. The national championship is set for Jan. 20 at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
