Check out Jerry Palm's complete 2015 CFP and bowl projections.
A couple of stunning results in the Big Ten, and a head-scratching loss by the elite program among the Group of Five, has caused a shake-up at the top of the bowl projections this week.
The four projected College Football Playoff teams remain the same after relatively easy wins for Ohio State, TCU and Clemson, and an unexpectedly comfortable win for Alabama at Texas A&M. The other games that were noteworthy for the CFP Selection Committee saw quite a bit of turnover though.
| College Football Playoff (Projection) | ||||
| Bowl | Date | Location | Matchup | Prediction |
| Championship Bowl | Jan. 12 | Glendale, Ariz. | Semifinal winners | TBD |
| Cotton Bowl | Dec. 31 | Arlington, Tex. | Semifinal | (2) TCU vs. (3) Alabama |
| Orange Bowl | Dec. 31 | Miami, Fla. | Semifinal | (1) Ohio State vs. (4) Clemson |
Iowa’s win at Northwestern by itself isn’t a huge shocker. The Hawkeyes were two-point favorites, but I doubt anyone would have predicted that they could lose their star running back, Jordan Canzeri, in the first quarter and still dominate the Wildcats in a 40-10 win. Iowa is clearly the favorite in the Big Ten West division now and could enter the Big Ten title game undefeated. The Hawkeyes replace Georgia in an at-large spot in a New Year’s Six game and are projected to play Utah in the Fiesta Bowl.
Last week, I swapped out Michigan State for Michigan in the projected Big Ten spot in the Rose Bowl. That looked good until Wolverines punter Blake O’Neill violated Rule No. 1 of punting -- catch the snap. He didn’t, the Spartans picked it up and ran it in for a game winning touchdown as time expired. So, Michigan State is back into the Rose Bowl projection this week.
The Golden Ticket for the highest rated Group of Five conference champion saw the biggest name among that group of teams get eliminated on Friday night. Boise State turned the ball over eight times in a loss to Utah State. Do not adjust your monitor; you are reading that correctly: eight times! The Broncos no longer project to win the Mountain West, and it is a virtual certainty that the AAC champion will get that Golden Ticket, though an undefeated Toledo would have a case as well.
| Selection Committee Bowl Games (Projected) | ||||
| Bowl | Date | Location | Matchup | Prediction |
| Sugar Bowl | Jan. 1 | New Orleans, La. | Big 12 vs. SEC | Baylor vs. LSU |
| Rose Bowl | Jan. 1 | Pasadena, Calif. | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Michigan State vs. Stanford |
| Fiesta Bowl | Jan. 1 | Glendale, Ariz. | At-Large vs. At-Large | Utah vs. Iowa |
| Peach Bowl | Dec. 31 | Atlanta, Ga. | At-Large vs. At-Large | Florida State vs. Houston |
It doesn’t look like we are going to have anywhere near enough bowl eligible teams to fill the 80 spots in all 40 games. I am projecting 14 teams to finish at 5-7, and needed to use eight of those teams for this week’s bowl projections. They all happen to be major conference teams, but that’s just a coincidence. They are chosen based on APR rankings.
Check out Jerry Palm's complete 2015 CFP and bowl projections.
